Technology serves the society best when it gives human beings a chance to do things that are uniquely human. Some of the activities that technologies can help include creative, productive, and enjoyable activities. For nations and societies, the benefit and good of technology can be expressed mostly in economic terms. It could include business growth, workplace productivity, and an increase in jobs for everyone. As the modern world advances, technology, robots, and artificial intelligence are increasingly being integrated into almost every business. This ushers in the Fourth Industrial Revolution where the world gets digitized and the workplace structure changes. However, one of the main questions that needs to be addressed is; can the 4th Industrial Revolution provide jobs for everyone?
What is the 4th industrial revolution
The fourth industrial revolution (4IR) can be defined as the further major industrial era since the first industrial revolution that took place in the 18th century. Some of the characteristics of the 4th industrial revolution has been the fusion of technologies in various fields. Different areas of work such as biological, digital, and physical spheres are increasingly making use of technology. This has been marked by a breakthrough and introduction in various areas of study. Some of the areas of study that have been introduced by the fourth industrial revolution include artificial intelligence, quantum computing, nanotechnology, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, robotics, 3D printing, Internet of Things (IoT), and fully autonomous vehicles. 1
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The fourth industrial revolution can be best understood by looking at the previous industrial revolutions. Schwab describes the fourth industrial revolution by indicating its difference from the third industrial revolution in his book titled The Fourth Industrial Revolution. He makes a significant statement in the book stating that “The underlying basis for 4IR lies in advances in communication and connectivity rather than technology” 2 The first industrial revolution took place between the 18th and the 19th centuries. The changes involved a change in basic manufacturing from agrarian societies and an increased use of industrialization. The result was the development of the steam engine and several other technological developments that changed how the world operated.
The second industrial revolution was marked by the introduction of electricity. This led to the building up and expansion of industries. Production levels rose to high levels and resulted in the creation of several jobs. The third industrial revolution was often referred to as the information age. It was marked by the development of IT and computers during the middle 20th century. The fourth industrial revolution is growing after the third and can be considered a continuation of the third since it is not a completely new era.
The impact on work
The adoption of automation is one of the major concerns of the fourth industrial revolution. The use of automation will create outcomes that are impactful in the work environment. There is an increasingly huge number of manual processes being automated and manual jobs becoming replaced. As such, one of the most direct impacts of the fourth industrial revolution is that it will lead to a change in the nature of work. A study by McKinsey showed that the world market is increasingly experiencing several changes. The study revealed that approximately 375 million workers will have to change the category of their jobs by the year 2030. The study went on to reveal that the adoption of digital work would result in a significant boost of the economy by up to $2.7 trillion of the world GDP by the year 2025 3 . This shows that even with the ever changing demands of the workforce, there is going to be a significant improvement in the world economy and the number of jobs.
Technological jobs
One of the direct impacts of the adoption of technology is that there will be an improvement in technological jobs. Technological jobs will increasingly be applied in different sections of the economy. For instance, most industries such as financial, logistics, aerospace, and manufacturing are starting to apply technology. The advancement of robotics, 3D printing, AI, and Internet of Things will result in an improvement of technological jobs applied in the various sections of the economy. This may put a great amount of pressure on companies that may have to automate in order to remain competitive in the global landscape. Companies will thus higher and expand its workforce that can handle various technology. However, this will come at the cost of other individuals that do the manual jobs 4 .
Technological jobs that are going to involve experts that handle automation and technology used by the fourth industrial revolution are likely to experience a significant boost. These jobs include engineers, IT administrators, and engineers. The study by McKinsey estimated that the expenditure on technology is likely going to increase by more than 50 percent between the years 2015 and 2030 5 . The study further estimated that approximately half of the increased technology use and spending would be on the sectors of information technology services. This would include both built-in house IT workers and externally outsourced IT workers. The current number of individuals that have been employment in the health care and construction business is currently significantly small. However, the trend could change and people that work in the technology sector could represent the largest workforce as they start taking more than 50 million jobs across the globe.
Freelancer jobs
Freelancer jobs is one area that is likely going to get a significant boost as a result of the growing economy. A study by upwork shows that more than 36% of the entire workforce in the United States are freelancer. The percentage represents 57.3 million Americans who engage in freelancing work. This huge population contributes to more than $1.4 trillion of the annual economy and has had a 30% increase compared to the previous year. The study estimated that more than 50% of the population in the United States would be freelancers by the year 2027 6 . Those that choose to get into freelancing do so because of the economy, its flexibility, and the extra income provided by freelancing.
The study by Upwork also explored the rate of growth of freelancer jobs in the United States. The study found that freelance workforce is growing faster compared to the overall workforce in the United States. It has outpaced the general growth rate of the workforce by three times since 2014. It has had a consistent growth of approximately 8% over the past few years. The younger generation are increasingly becoming a large percent of the workforce. Almost half of millennials in the current society work in freelancer jobs. The participation in these jobs is higher compared to that of any other age group.
The increase in freelancer jobs is marked by fourth industrial revolution where there is going to be changes in the way work is being done. Freelancer jobs is a unique opportunity and is going to create new opportunities in the future of work. Individuals that are increasingly getting into freelancer jobs do so because they know that they are their own boss and that no one controls their destiny. Freelancers are thus individuals that think more proactively about the economic situation and are ready to adapt to different work markets. They help in the creation of new jobs and in the expansion and advancement of the economy.
Infrastructure and buildings
The other section of the economy that is going to grow and create more jobs in the fourth industrial revolution is in infrastructure and buildings. Housing and labor are continually growing with the increase in population and the increase in productivity. Developing countries that are urbanizing and industrializing and starting to have advanced economics would start investing their infrastructure in building and construction. This would lead to an improvement in the amount of money that is spent investing in infrastructure in different parts of the world. The rising incomes as a result of automation would cause an increase in the demand for buildings that are of high quality. More than 80 million jobs are estimated to be created in the world due to the increase in demands for buildings and construction. These jobs would be applied in different fields such as engineers, architectures, carpenters, entrepreneurs, construction individuals, and machine workers.
Health care and aging
There is also an increasingly huge amount of population that is aging. Population survey estimates indicate that there could be an increase of 300 million that will be over the age of 65 by the year 2030 compared the population of 2014. The improvement in healthcare means that there is an increasingly huge number of people that are advancing to old age compared to any other time in history. The fourth industrial revolution will thus be faced by a workforce that has a significant number of individuals that are above the age of 65 years. This would result in the demand for occupations that are able to take care of the elderly. The specific jobs that are likely to experience significant growth include nurses, doctors, health technicians, personal care aides, nursing assistants, and home care aides. The global estimation is that there will be an estimated increase in health care and other related jobs as a result of the aging population by 80 million and 130 million by the year 2030 7 .
The nature of jobs
Even though there is going to be an increasingly huge number of jobs in further industrial revolution, it is going to be increasingly marked by shifts in the nature of jobs. The nature of shift could be different from the shift that was experienced in the manufacturing and agricultural job shift in the previous industrial revolutions. The study by McKinsey estimated that between 75 million and 375 million workers would have to switch the nature of jobs which they undertake. These represents between 3 percent and 14 percent of the workforce in the entire globe. Workers would have to adapt to new occupations and engage in work that is different from that which is performed by machines. The nature of work that would be performed may require a high level of educational achievement, high-level cognitive abilities, and creativity.
The potential impact of the fourth industrial revolution is going to be increasingly marked by a difference in sector and occupation. Activities that are highly susceptible to automation and the replacement of jobs include physical activities such as the preparation of fast foods and operating machinery. The collection and processing data are other categories of jobs that could be wiped out through the use of automation. For instance, areas of processing such as paralegal work, mortgage origination, processing of transactions at the back-office, and accounting could get easily replaced.
The adoption of technology can be marked by a significant short-term labor displacement. However, in the long run, there is a significant creation of new jobs and a creation of the demand for new jobs. The amount of new jobs created can exceed the number of jobs that have been lost as a result of adopting new technologies. While some activities and tasks become automated, workers will shift to perform new tasks. This may result in a shift in the economy as the overall demand of other sectors of automation grow.
Individuals that are involved in working environments that involve management of people may not be affected by the fourth industrial revolution. These areas of work include applying expertise, social interactions, managing people, and managing interactions between machines and humans. Jobs in environments that are also unpredictable are also not going to decrease. These occupations could include plumbers, gardeners, providers of elder-care and child-care. This is because these jobs are difficult to automate technically and usually do not consume high wages. As the population grows, the demand for the nature of jobs that involve a human touch and human experience is likely going to improve. 8
Historical evidence of job creation
The creation of jobs as a result of an industrial revolution can be considered by looking at the previous industrial revolutions. Rifkin analyzed the effect of the third industrial revolution by looking at the effect of the internet and green electricity into ushering a new era of capitalism and the creation of jobs. The study found that the establishment of the third industrial revolution created thousands of new businesses and millions of jobs in the 21st century. This created a sustainable world economy. 9 .
Smith and Anderson also analyze the future of jobs as a result of adoption of AI and robotics. Their study showed that historical data does not bear the evidence that technology and its adoption can lead to the displacement of jobs. Instead, there are basic procedures which people follow to the full adoption of technology and the final creation of jobs. The first step is that people first make technology and technology becomes obsolete at an accelerated space. This creates the need for people that will make the technology grow. More people will also be required to maintain the new and emerging technologies. This will resultantly cause an increase in the number of jobs. 10
Adequate skills for more jobs
A study by LinkedIn indicated that millennials will twice as many jobs compared by the time they get to be 30 years or older compared to their colleagues that are 10 years or older 11 . The study shows that the result of the change could have a significant impact on businesses and people in almost every field. Millennials can thus prepare themselves through equipping themselves with adequate skills in order to be in command of their professions in the near futures.
The new reality with the explosion of the internet and information age has made it easy for anyone to acquire any skill in any field cheaply and quickly. The internet is at its peak in terms of resources that one can find to develop their skills. This means that more people could be able to have the necessary training and skills than ever before. Anyone that wants to forge out and venture into a new field can do so through the use of cheap education available over the internet. This can result in a significant boost of jobs in the fourth industrial revolution. As some jobs become obsolete due to automation, the use of robots, and adoption of AI, there are still adequate platforms which people can gain skills in new jobs. Many people would thus easily entire into new fields where they can find new opportunities and new jobs.
The effect of productivity
Increased automation may result in the direct effect as a result of the losing of jobs. However, the improvement in economy and economic growth will lead to productivity that result in the creation of new jobs. For instance, there will be rising consumption and rising incomes in the developing society. Additionally, the aging society is going to increase significantly. This is likely going to increase a demand for care for the aging society. Additional investments in infrastructure and construction is likely going to cause an increase in the number of jobs.
The increase in productivity is one of the reasons why the adoption of technology would result in an increase in the number of jobs. The combination of artificial intelligence and robotics can lead to a displacement of up to 7 million jobs between the year 2017 and 2037. However, this would largely result in a reduction in costs and increase in spending. This may ultimately result in generation of 7.2 million jobs. This can be translated to a net gain and improvement of jobs of approximately 200,000 jobs 12 .
Figure 1 shows the consistency in economic growth even with the adoption of robotics in the United States. The rate has been positively consistent leading to the consistent addition of new jobs. 13 The direct impact of productivity would see that jobs in manufacturing, public administration, and transportation and storage would decrease. However, jobs in technical and scientific services, science, and hospitality are expected to experience a significant increase. This shows that automation is not as disruptive as some fear.
Figure 1: Employment growth rate 14
Negative impacts on jobs
A study by Demerouti and Bakker investigated the effects of technology on jobs. They studied the effect that robots and other computer-assisted technologies have had in overtaking previous tasks that were primarily performed by labor. The study was carried out between the years 1990 and 2007 on the labor market in the United States. Their study revealed that robots compete against human labor throughout the production of different tasks. It showed that robots could reduce wages and employment rates of the population. The impact of robots was also seen to have had a significant impact on the imports from China and Mexico and a decline in routine jobs. The study estimated that one more robot in a thousand worker could reduce the employment to population ratio by about 0.18 and 0.34 percent. 15
A closer analysis of the study by Demerouti showed that it only considered a smaller time frame and not the events that could occur as a result of the future. In the past years, robotics has increasingly been applied in several industries. While this has led to the loss of jobs in some parts of the economy, it has also created jobs in other areas of the economy that were previously unknown. The development of the internet has created a significant number of jobs as several individuals can now participate in freelancing jobs with much ease.
Conclusion
The question of whether the 4th industrial revolution will provide jobs for everyone remains difficult to answer until the full adoption of technology. However, evidence suggests that there could be a direct impact of reduction of jobs in the physical and manual labor markets. The full adoption of technology would lead to an increase in productivity and creation of jobs in other complementary sectors of the economy. This will lead to the resultant creation of jobs in different sections of the economy such as technology and infrastructure. The third industrial revolution led to the creation of new types of jobs that make use of the internet. It is also likely that the fourth industrial revolution is going to create jobs that have never been heard in history. There is thus a high chance that the fourth industrial revolution will create enough jobs for almost everyone.
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