Crime Trend Lines: How to Keep Your Family Safe in 2021

Crimes are prevalent in the United States. In fact, one of the biggest issues in the U.S. today is a crime. This issue continues to erode the U.S. both economically and morally. As such, there is a need to find a solution to this problem. Many people believe that living in a bad family, location of residence, and living in an economically disadvantaged community, among many other factors as some of the factors that contribute to the occurrence of criminal activities in the United States. Since these factors vary from place to place, it means that the prevalence of crime also varies from one region to another. 

This paper will compare the prevalence of crime between New York and Los Angeles. More specifically, this paper will outline the trends in aggravated assaults between these two states from 2005 to 2014. In the U.S., crime is measured by law enforcement agencies –the police department and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). Some of the mechanisms used to measure aggravated assaults and other crimes in the U.S. include The National Crime Victimization Survey, The Uniform Crime Reporting, and the National Incident-Based Reporting System (UCR, 2020). However, there are several issues with the measurement of crime. Crimes can be deceived based on several factors, such as the type of crime, the location a crime is committed, the change in policies, and mandatory laws. With this in mind, the crime statistics presented in this paper may not be exact since some crime goes unreported. However, the statistics are the actual statistics provided by the police departments of New York City and Los Angeles. 

Crime Trends –Aggravated Assaults 

The index crime chosen for this paper is aggravated assault. Aggravated assault is an index crime that involves causing serious bodily injury to an individual (Harrendorf et al., 2015). This index crime was chosen because this type of crime is the one that is highly likely to affect me once I relocate to New York City or Los Angeles. Aggravated assaults are more prevalent in these two cities than other crimes (UCR, 2020). Although it is unrealistic to accounts for all incidents of aggravated assault, residents and non-residents need to know the data about aggravated assaults in a given region. Safety ought to be a priority when choosing to relocate to a different neighborhood. Thus, it is important to research the crime rate of a potential neighborhood before moving there. This will help you know if it is safe to live there. 

In New York City, crime incidents are recorded and made accessible to the public by the New York City Police Department. In Los Angeles, this data is reported by the Los Angeles Police Department. New York City and Los Angeles use the Uniform Crime Reporting mechanism to report crimes. This program collects statistics on violent crimes and property crimes. Table 1 shows the number of aggravated assaults reported between these two cities from 2005 to 2014. 

Table 1: Number of Aggravated Assaults Reported in New York City and Los Angeles (2005-2014) 

Statistics 

Cases of aggravated assaults in New York City have been increasing since 2005. Comparing the cases of aggravated assaults in 2005 and 2014, the incidents have increased by 6,936 (UCR, 2020). This represents a 12.56% increase. However, between 2013 and 2014, the cases of aggravated assaults declined from 31,767 to 31,460 (UCR, 2020). This represents a 0.97% decrease. The mean and median incident count for the ten years is 28,502 and 27,630, respectively (UCR, 2020). In 2013, New York City recorded the highest cases of aggravated assaults –31,767. 

In contrast, cases of aggravated assaults in Los Angeles have been decreasing over the ten years. Comparing the number of incidents in 2005 and 2014, cases of aggravated assaults in Los Angeles have decreased by 8,752 (UCR, 2020). This is a significant decrease as it represents a 39.94% decrease. Between 2013 and 2014, the cases reported have also decreased significantly. Los Angeles Police Department reported 7,624 and 9,836 in 2013 and 2014, respectively (UCR, 2020). This represents a 29.01% increase. This indicates that cases of aggravated assaults in Los Angeles have increased significantly between 2013 and 2014. The mean and median count for the ten years is 11,035 and 10,237, respectively (UCR, 2020). Table 2 represents these statistics. Figure 1 is a graphical presentation of the trends in aggravated assaults between New York City and Los Angeles. 

Table 2: Crime Trend -Statistics 

Figure 1: Crime Trend Line –New York City and Los Angeles 

From the graph, it is evident that the cases of aggravated assaults in New York City have been increasing over the ten years, with a significant decline in 2008. In contrast, cases of aggravated assaults have been decreasing gradually in Los Angeles, with a significant increase between 2013 and 2014. Overall, the cases of aggravated assaults are higher in New York City than in Los Angeles. 

As stated earlier, New York City and Los Angeles rely on the Uniform Crime Reporting mechanism to report and document crime incidents. As such, the cases reported are often not correct or exact because some cases often go unreported. However, since this data is provided by a reputable organization –the FBI –it can be used for comparison. However, there is some variation between the data provided by the FBI and some literature. According to the statistics provided by Disaster Center, New York City and Los Angeles recorded higher cases of aggravated assaults than those recorded by the FBI. For instance, according to the FBI, there were 31,460 cases of aggravated assaults in New York City, whereas the Disaster Center recorded 45,295 cases (UCR, 2020; Disaster Center, 2020). This variation can be explained by the fact that Disaster Center relies not only on the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program to report crimes in the U.S. but also other databases, such as the FBI UCS Annual Crime Reports. In another study, Green (2019) reports that the cases of aggravated assaults in New York City are higher than those reported in the UCR program. According to Greeen (2019), New York recorded a total of 45,212 cases of aggravated assault in 2014. As seen, there is a significant variation between the cases documented by the FBI and other sources. This is because some cases go unreported. 

Despite the variations, all sources document that cases of aggravated assault are higher in New York City than Los Angeles. In addition, there is no significant variation between the data provided by the FBI and other sources. Therefore, it is appropriate to compare New York City and Los Angeles. Since the cases of aggravated assaults are higher in New York City than Los Angeles, I would prefer to move to Los Angeles. This is because Los Angeles is much safer than New York City. 

References 

Disaster Center. (2020). New York population and number of crimes: 1960-2018. http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/nycrime.htm 

Green, M. (2019). Crime in New York State 2018 final data. https://www.criminaljustice.ny.gov/crimnet/ojsa/Crime-in-NYS-2018.pdf 

Harrendorf, S., Heiskanen, M., & Malby, S. (2010). International statistics on crime and justice. European Institute for Crime Prevention and Control. 

UCR. (2020). Welcome to a new way to access UCR Statistics. https://www.ucrdatatool.gov/