Multiple regression is an extension of the simple linear regression which aims to find the predictor variables that significantly explain the variation of a dependent variable (Warner, 2008). A potential research that can be conducted from the Afrobarometer Survey data set is assessing the impact of respondent’s age and satisfaction with democracy on the Trust in Government Index. Theoretically, age may influence people’s opinions on the effectiveness of the government on handling public affairs based on experience while democratically satisfied people tend to have high trust in government (Christensen & Laegreid, 2005).
Research question
Does age and current satisfaction with democracy influence the trust in government trust index among the Africans?
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Variable description
The trust in government index is the dependent variable (DV) while age and current satisfaction with democracy are the independent variables. Age can be treated as the IV1 while satisfaction with democracy can be treated as IV2. All the three variables are measured in a ratio scale.
Descriptive statistics
Based on the 37,636 participants, the mean age was 36.79 years ( SD = 14.252). The mean level of satisfaction with democracy was 2.51 ( SD = 1.017) while trust in government index had a mean of 8.0039 ( SD = 4.1946).
Table 1
Regression model
Table 2: Model Summary
Table 3: ANOVA Table
Based on the Tables 2 and 3 above, the mode was statistically significant, F (2, 37,633) = 3,949.493, p < 0.000. Both age and satisfaction with democracy are significant predictors of trust in government index among the Africans. The R-squared is 0.173 indicating that 17.3% of the model variation can be explained by changes in participants’ age and their respective level of satisfaction with democracy (Fox, 2015).
Table 4: Model coefficients
The model coefficients were statistically different from zero. An increases in participant’s age by 1 year, increased their trust in government index by 0.021 units, t = 15.483, p < 0.000. Still, an increases in satisfaction with democracy by one unit increased the trust in government index by 1.676 units, t = 86.592, p < 0.000 (Fox, 2015). The findings imply that, to win more trust of the people for the current government, there is a need to initiate social projects that cut across through the elderly people or the aging people, and give people more will and power to engage in decision making on matters related to public affairs. Therefore, the regression model can be written as:
Trust in Government Index = 3.009 + 0.021*(Age) + 1.676*(Satisfaction with democracy)
References
Christensen, T., & Lægreid, P. (2005). Trust in government: The relative importance of service satisfaction, political factors, and demography. Public Performance & Management Review , 28 (4), 487-511.
Fox, J. (2015). Applied regression analysis and generalized linear models . Sage Publications.
Warner, R. M. (2008). Applied statistics: From bivariate through multivariate techniques . Sage.
