I want to pursue a PhD program in either Oxford University or Cambridge University in the United Kingdom. The main goal is to learn in one of the world's best universities and make a successful career as a statistician. In my case, the biggest problem is choosing the best university among the two, considering that they are both world-class and in the same country. I like both universities, and I would like one of them. Oxford University outranks Cambridge University slightly, which makes it a tough decision to make. The slight differences are in terms of education quality, research quality, resources, and international profile. From those methodologies, it is hard to choose one and leave the other.
A conditional probability method will be used to make a decision. Conditional probability takes two events and relates them both to obtain the results ( Abra & Erica, 2006) . I will apply the following conditional probabilities to make the decision: 1) P (successful statistician| join Oxford University); 2) p (successful statistician| join the university of Cambridge). In terms of representation, let X represent a successful statistician, and the universities will be represented by A, B, respectively. Therefore, to get the results the following formulas will be used: P (X|A) = P (A and X)/ P (A) and P (X|B) = P (B and X)/ P (B).
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The reason for choosing conditional probability is because I already know something about the universities; I understand that Oxford University has a slight edge over Cambridge in terms of ranking. Additionally, conditional probability accounts for how variables relate to each other. In my case, the ranking and prowess of the universities may change. Therefore, using conditional probability will help me obtain a better choice even if the universities' conditions or rankings change.
After using the conditional probability method, the values obtained from both formulas will be compared, and I will choose the highest conditional probability of the two. Reason being that it will provide higher chances of achieving my main objective at whichever university selected from through the process.
References
Abra, D., Erica M. N . (2019) Reading Versus Doing: Methods of Teaching Problem-Solving in Introductory Statistics . Journal of Statistics Education, 27(3), 154-170.
