Probability is a process of determining the likelihood of a particular event occurring, and is expressed as a proportion ranging from 0 to 1 or as a percentage which ranges from 1% to 100%. Probability can either be conditional, in that the process is done based on certain set parameters or unconditional where the process is carried out without applying any set limits. There are numerous types of probability namely; empirical probability, subjective probability, priori probability, and axiomatic probability.
Probability is based on a study carried out on a sample that is selected from the population. Population refers to the total set of observations that can be made in an experiment and due to it being sometimes being too large there is a need to select a sample which is group observations selected from the population. The process of selecting a sample is known as sampling and can either be probability sampling or not. Each member has a chance of being selected in a probability sampling procedure, which is usually sub-classified into simple random, systematic and stratified sampling categories. On the other hand, the non-probability sampling technique refers to a procedure whereby sampling is done randomly and is further broken down to convenience and quota sampling.
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Empirical probability, also known as the experimental probability, is a type of probability where the likelihood of an event occurring is in ratio form, regarding to the multiple outcomes in which the event occurs in relation to the total number of outcomes of the experiment. It is not carried out on a theoretical sample space but in an actual experiment hence estimates probability from experience and observation. The main advantage of this type of probability is that its free of assumptions but it has its limitation in that it cannot low probabilities.
Priori probability is a probability type that calculates the likelihood of an event by logically examining circumstances or available information regarding a certain event. It deals only with independent events whose occurrence is not influenced by any previous events like a toss of a coin. Priori probability is thus applicable to a small set of events since most events are not independent hence there occurrence is influenced to some extent by other occurrences.
Subjective probability is a process of determining the likelihood of an event occurring, by examining an individual’s judgment and experience about whether a specific outcome is likely to happen. This type of probability provides a reflection on one’s personal opinions and experiences instead of formal calculations. This probability type differs from one person to another; hence, contains a high degree of personal bias.
