Introduction
Population change is largely a function of fertility. It is for this reason that scholarly efforts have been advanced to explain reproduction behaviors and thus the determinants of fertility in the Arab world. Studies show that in Arab nations, particularly in Saudi Arabia, there is a looming family life crisis as a result of sharply declining fertility rates. This decline is attributed to a rise in contraception use and attitudinal change in the Muslim world on the notion of a “New Arab family.” This study examines fertility rates, contraceptive use, and future implications in the Arab world represented by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar.
High fertility rates
The high fertility rate in the Arab countries is a creation by popular media, policy reports, and academic researchers that is inaccurate and outdated. These agencies associate the so-called high fertility rates with men’s patriarchal control over women and religious culture (Inhorn, 2018). According to the Census Bureau (2011), the current fertility rate per woman in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar are 2.0, 2.4, and 1.9 respectively. A comparison of these rates 30 years ago indicates profound declines in fertility rate. In 1988, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar had high fertility rates of 7.1, 6.2, and 6.8 respectively. This transition is a representative picture of a wider Muslim fertility decline that Inhorn (2018) refers to a quiet revolution. This revolution is largely attributed to the introduction of family planning programs and the use of contraceptive in the Middle East. In addition, though, this decline is also as a result of the attitudinal change expressed in the desire for fewer children typical of a new small Arab family. A further decrease in fertility levels in these Arab countries may be experienced in the near future as a result of the recent developments in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, for instance, is experiencing a significant expansion in female education which is likely to result in social changes that will have women less engaged with childbearing (Inhorn, 2018). This is in light of the increasing participation of women in the labor force as well as their involvement in societal and developmental projects. Consequently, a rise in the age at first marriage followed by a decline in the desired family size is likely to take effect. In effect, therefore, women who have chosen to pursue education and formal work may opt for fewer children. Furthermore, the emphasis is laid on the significance of population control and its relationship with the country’s development and environment. As a result of these factors, the fertility rate in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar will continue to decrease to 1.6, 2.0, and 1.8 respectively in the next a quarter-century in the year 2043 (Census Bureau, 2011).
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Contraception use
Fertility concerns in the Arab nations started way back in the post-World War II era when the western world propagated rhetoric of overpopulation in the third-world countries recommending government interventions. The Western analysts argued that the implementation of family planning methods to control the high population growth rates would ease the pressure on the limited resources available and lead to the countries’ social, economic and political stability. Despite these efforts, contraceptive preference remained low as evidenced by the high fertility rates in the 1980s. Arab countries that resisted contraception perceived population increase as the solution to their countries under-population. However, as from the 2000s, contraceptive use began to spread across Arab nations as men and women changed their perspectives about an ideal Arab nuclear family (Inhorn, 2018). Men’s support for contraceptive use increased leading to the advocacy of male-controlled family planning. This attitudinal change became widespread that even in resource-poor Arab nations, fertility declines were registered.
Future Implications
As a result of these factors, the fertility rate in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar will continue to decrease to 1.6, 2.0, and 1.8 respectively in the next a quarter-century in the year 2043. This drop in fertility rates is likely to hit below replacement levels in most countries in the Arab world in the future. The sharp declines in fertility rates have consequences for the future of Arab nations. It is clear that the Middle East will be graying sooner than expected as a result of the present youth bulges (Inhorn, 2018). This means that there is likely going to be a crisis in elderly caretaking for masses of future citizens of the Middle East
Conclusion
From this analysis, it is deductive that the Arab reproductive revolution will cause family life crisis with the current and predicted trends in fertility rates. The Arab world is poised for long-term demographic implications as a region due to the social transformations resulting from declining fertility rates.
References
Census Bureau. (2011, June 27). International programs, international data base. Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/idb/region.php?N=
Inhorn, M. C. (2018). The Arab World’s “Quiet” Reproductive Revolution. Brown Journal of World Affairs , 24 (2), 147-159.
