Forecasting is regularly carried out in an organization to guide on possible trends that may affect the operations. In healthcare, forecasting can be used in operations such as establishing the possible health technologies that will emerge in the future. The process is essential as it will act as a guide to business on the emerging health technologies that should be adopted instead of investing in those which will not be beneficial. Research has to be carried, possible within 3 to 20 years to give enough timeframe for making predictions which will be more reliable (Daim, 2011). Forecasting can also be used in predicting other external pressures and how they might affect a business. The information is used for making rational decisions and allows for planning of budgets, requirements training of staff members, infrastructure and recruitment.
There are different methods used in forecasting. These approaches are literature searching, scenario development, and analysis. The clinicians collect the available data over a period of time establishing the technologies that have been used in hospitals in search timeframe. Consulting the experts is also combined with the studies as a way of establishing which technological changes they have deemed as most helpful. Scenario analysis is about observing the changes in technology in a certain hospital in several years. The technologies which are implemented over time and the impact they have in the hospital is determined, and that can help predict the possibility of the hospital implementing new health technologies. The Delphi-style surveys, for example, which was carried out for five years was used in predicting the possible changes in developments and innovations, even in health care, for the next thirty years (Doos, Packer, Ward, Simpson, & Stevens, 2016). Different nations have adopted the forecasting methods including United Kingdom which uses the Technology Foresight Programme which guides possible outcome in future on topics such as healthcare.
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When forecasting is done correctly, it will act as guidance to strategic planning making rational decisions and investing in healthcare systems which will benefit an organization. The reliability of the forecast information is determined by how the process was conducted. To get reliable information, it is necessary to use different methods as analyzing the wide-varied data will act as a guide to reducing large error margins. Other methods such as the consensus approach, as applied in the Delphi researches can help improve the accuracy of the forecast process. The level of expertise of the experts involved in the process can also increase the results accuracy levels (Behkami & Daim, 2012). There are other factors which also have to be considered and such include having the right mix of experts who have varying levels and experience breaths, coming up with the appropriate questions which are relevant to the topic and a deep analysis of the results.
Forecasting is largely affected by the gaps in knowledge concerning the issues of technology adoption in healthcare. The reviews are lengthy and complex, but they have to be carried out as they determine the reliability of the forecasting results. The forecasting process is not easy, but it is beneficial. In healthcare, technology plays a large role in improving patient outcome and improving effectiveness (De Meyrick, 2003). The rate at which technology is developing is high; however, it does not mean that all those machinery and skills can have a positive effect in healthcare. Forecasting is thus necessary to guide the technologies which are worth investing and those which should be avoided.
References
Behkami, N. A., & Daim, T. U. (2012). Research forecasting for health information technology (HIT), using technology intelligence. Technological forecasting and social change, 79(3), 498-508.
Daim, T. U. (Ed.). (2011). Technology assessment: Forecasting future adoption of emerging technologies (Vol. 10). Erich Schmidt Verlag GmbH & Co KG.
De Meyrick, J. (2003). The Delphi method and health research. Health education, 103(1), 7-16.
Doos, L., Packer, C., Ward, D., Simpson, S., & Stevens, A. (2016). Past speculations of the future: a review of the methods used for forecasting emerging health technologies. BMJ Open, 6(3), e010479.
