Natural change for any country can be calculated using the difference between the birth and death rates which are quoted as numerical figures per thousands of residents. This implies that, for example, China has a birth rate of 12.3 (BR) which means that for every one thousand residents 12.3 births occur per year in China. Similarly China has a death rate of 7.0 (DR) implying that for every one thousand residents seven individual pass away on a yearly basis. To put these facts into a workable notation we get the following formula:
Where NC = Natural Change (per Year), BR = Birth Rate per Thousands (per Year) and DR = Death Rate per Thousands (per Year)
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|
Country |
Birth Rate (BR)/ 000s |
Death Rate (DR)/ 000s |
Natural Change (NC) = (BR – DR) |
|
Brazil |
17.6 |
6.7 |
10.9 |
|
South Korea |
8.6 |
6.3 |
2.3 |
From the above table we can clearly see that Brazil has a net positive natural change of 10.9 births per every one thousand residents in their country. To calculate the overall projected population increase we can use the following expression:
From the works of Tramujas, Vasconcellos, Neumann and Albert we can identify that Brazil has one of the leading population increase in the world right now and one of the major reasons is the average age of their residents (Tramujas et al, 2018). Since the majority of their population is 25+ years old birth rates are soaring in that part of the world and relatively higher when compared to other developing and developed nations. Another reason for increasing population and natural change can be attributed to the increasing average life expectancy of individuals due to better healthcare with increased medical coverage by the state and private institutions. The increasing population does provide the corporate and business sector with a diversified workforce however due to lack of developed infrastructure Brazil faces severe overcrowding in their main cities along with emergence of shanty towns and low income slums.
On the other hand South Korea, has a low NC value suggesting that the values for the birth and death rate are somewhat similar. There are many socio economic reasons why a developed country like South Korea would have such an issue but one of the main reasons as highlighted by the Yoo & Sabotka are the ultra-low fertility in that region (Yoo& Sabotka, 2018).
Furthermore, certain government policies that pertained to the discouragement of having more than one child are also the cause of such a steep decline while since the work force in South Korea constitutes a very high number of women life expectancy has increased with social awareness but birth rates have drastically decreased. The result for such a natural change makes South Korea an aging economy with a predicted decrease of nearly twenty million local residents in the next eighty odd years.
References
Tramujas Vasconcellos Neumann, L., & Albert, S. M. (2018). Aging in Brazil. The Gerontologist.
Yoo, S. H., & Sobotka, T. (2018). Ultra-low fertility in South Korea: The role of the tempo effect. Demographic Research, 38, 549-576.
