The notion of many societies making and learning from their mistakes is what gets referred to as ‘Generational Dynamics.' However, it is only trivial that generations have their expiry dates as they tend to grow, give up work and die. The new generations that serve as replacements for the worn out generations are young and vulnerable to the latter's blunders and lessons. As a result, the same faults are repeated by the new generation which also goes on to learn from their slipups. This cycle has proceeded for the next hundreds of years. At this juncture, we come to learn of the utter vitality of Generational Dynamics in our modern society.
Research experts have concluded that one of the significant mistakes of our generations is having a major war. Crisis Wars are known to affect a country’s overall economy massively and as a result positions the country in an instead compromising state with regards to its survival and way of life (Field, 2013, p. 17). The United States, for instance, suffered a crisis war during the course of the second World War. General Dynamics is therefore especially important at the current time of American History since we have just recently entered a newly formulated period of another ‘crisis’.
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A decade ago, United States was governed by much older leaders who were brought up in a generation that witnessed firsthand the impacts of the Second World War; including homelessness, famishment, and high levels of casualties. They used to live in fear of being attacked by both Germans and Japanese. The methods that got applied in the quest to resolve this crisis was the use of conciliation and suppression (Norman, 2016, p. 77). These leaders are however presumed dead or retired. In the current system, the leaders are considerably young as most of them were born after the Second World War. They do not have any actual personal experience regarding what went down during the previous crisis, making them less risk aversive (Field, 2013, p. 17). They are rather arrogant with matters related to the devising of models that may get used in the containment of such risks. This explains America's changed attitudes over the past decade. The complete comprehension of Generational Dynamics, therefore, comes in handy in solving the appropriate mechanisms of the world and the future of the United States in the next three decades.
The Generational Dynamics Patterns.
The role of historians in this particular field is the location of frequently recurring patterns and the discovery of the normal rhythms of social understanding. It has been observed that there has been a new turning for every given two decades in the Anglo-American society during the past five centuries (Field, 2013, p. 17). These changes get majorly based on culture, the peoples’ notion of themselves, their nation and future expectations. These new beginnings are believed to occur in four identified cycles, with which each cycle is said to span the period of a long human's existence, between the ages of 80-100 years. The ancient people originally referred to the cycles as the saeculum. All these new turnings of the saeculums marked history's stages of growth, development, entropy, and demolition.
A weakened eccentricity marks the First Turning and consolidating institutions reflected by a faded old regime. The Second Turning, on the other hand, is characterized by high standards of spiritualism which result from attacks on the newly instituted system (Field, 2013, p. 17). The Third Turning involves weakening institutions and a reinforced individualism. The last Turning gets marked by a Crisis with high levels of secular cataclysm resulting from the replacement of the previous civic order with a newly formulated order that is driven by the values regime. Every turning is characterized by a different mood, which generally catches up with people in a somewhat surprising manner.
Analysis of the Four Turnings
The First Turning is evident from the periods when Truman, Kennedy, and Eisenhower ruled the U.S. At the end of the Second World War, nobody presumed that the country would soon become firm institutionally, and at the same time be contented spiritually(Norman, 2016, p. 77). The Second Turning was marked by the Consciousness Revolution which involved chaotic experiences in campuses during the mid-1960s extending to the tax revolts that occurred in the early 1980s. Nobody presumed that the country was soon to enter a politically liberated era accompanied by division with regards to culture, just before the assassination of President John M. Kennedy.
The Third Turning was the reign of President Bob Regan marked by Cultural Wars in the mid-1980s. Like the other first three turnings, no one had made any predictions regarding the very fact that the U.S was soon to enter an era that constituted national drift and an erosion of the Institutional structure. (Cullen& Fischer, 2014, p. 289). The Fourth marks the most significant discontinuity ever registered in history, and it is an unavoidable turning that can either be mild, short and severe, long and complicated.
History is known as an aspect that tentatively creates generations. These generations are also accountable for the existence of history. This mutual interconnectedness between life and time is a concrete explanation for the forecasted national direction by the consensus (Norman, 2016, p. 77). These predictions have however provided conflicting results from the predicted expectations. Americans are said to have a deficiency of grasping the seasonality that exists in history.
Currently, slip-ups are continually getting instituted by forecasters. Their predictions state the U.S is yet to enter an era full of resilient individualism, social disintegration, and a considerably weakened institution. This is to say that the country has gotten viewed as becoming more decentralized with its citizens getting exposed to extremely high technology. Historical critics have also mentioned the high possibility of degeneration of child life and an improvement in the lives of older people. There is an assumption that poverty levels will increase in its average proportionate rate. The same applies to the rich, who are assumed to continue being prosperous. Historical patterns, however, differ with this perspective in the sense that the above-stated trends would not last long. Correct predictions can only get arrived at by taking into consideration a critical study on previous eras which have similar patterns and the subsequent events. An accurate analysis can only be reached by linking repetitive sequences from four of the current generation’s archetypes that have appeared throughout the whole of history’s saecula (Cullen& Fischer, 2014, p. 289). The four models are: A Prophet Generation is born during a High, a Nomad Generation is born during an Awakening, an Artist Generation is born during a Crisis, and lastly a Hero Generation is born during an Unravelling.
Every archetype is an illustration of one among the preexisting dispositions. In the event of the application of the four archetypes on the four turnings, the impact brought forth is the buildup of four different generational constellations(Cullen& Fischer, 2014, p. 289). This helps explain the reason behind the occurrence of a new turning in every two decades, and the fact that history is made up of many linked patterns. The mood in America can be said to have continually evolved over the years as a result of these rhythmical patterns of history and the effect of the four turnings.
Conclusion
A compilation of shifts resulting from the above-stated archetypes throughout the whole life cycle results in a clear view of the country's assemblage in the 1970s which has resulted in a completely different structure overall, in the 1990s. This can get denoted from the country's shift in its mood from Awakening to Unravelling. The application of this logic into the ‘Oh Oh Decade’ and generations beyond that, we will come to an understanding that indeed the Fourth Turning is on its way, and the resultant mood change in the country when the Crisis strikes.
Works Cited
Cullen, Pauline, and Clara Fischer. "Conceptualizing Generational Dynamics in Feminist Movements: Political Generations, Waves and Affective Economies." Sociology Compass , vol. 8, no. 3, 2014, pp. 282-293.
Field, John. "Learning Through the Ages? Generational Inequalities and Inter-Generational Dynamics of Lifelong Learning." British Journal of Educational Studies , vol. 61, no. 1, 2013, pp. 109-119.
Norman. "Issues related to the generational economy." Population Aging and the Generational Economy , vol. 23, no. 6, 2016, p. 77.
