It was important that none of the food preparation supervisors had reported being ill as this showed the source of the illness must have been somewhere in the prison and not brought into the prison by the food preparation supervisors. Also, by the supervisors not getting ill, it meant that the other processes that were being handled by inmates must have been the sources of contamination.
Epidemic curves usually show the frequency of any new cases of a disease in relation to the date and time of onset of the particular illness being investigated. For epidemiologists, possible causes of the disease can be put forward from the shape of the curve which indicates possible incubation periods of the disease ( LaMorte, 2017). The prison epidemic curve indicates a point source outbreak with a rapid increase in cases and within a very short timespan.
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Casserole odds ratio = ad/bc = 191*8 / 8*1 = 191
Mixed vegetables = ad/bc = 168*4 / 11*22 = 672/242 = 2.78
Cornbread = ad/bc = 159*6 / 12*30 = 954/360 = 2.65
From the odds ratio calculated, the casserole was the most likely source of the outbreak out of all the foods served with an odds ratio of 191. The mixed vegetables and cornbread were 2 nd and 3 rd respectively.
There are a number of things that can be done to prevent such outbreaks in the future. First, the prison should avoid serving foods that are too close to their expiration dates as sometimes they may have larger than usual numbers of bacteria. Also, leftover foods once reheated should be served on the their own instead of mixing them with freshly cooked food. Another important recommendation involves the heating and cooling of food. Whenever possible, food should always be served when hot as allowing it to cool and leaving it just warm for long periods of time creates a conducive environment for bacteria to incubate and breed in large numbers causing food contamination. The prison should also ensure utmost cleanliness in the kitchen and also of the people handling the food to minimize chances of contamination Eufic (2017).
References
Eufic (2017). Food Hygiene: How to Prevent Foodborne Illness. https://www.eufic.org/en/food-safety/article/food-hygiene-at-home-how-to-avoid-foodborne-illness
LaMorte, W. (2017). Epidemic Curves. Descriptive Epidemiology. https://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/EP/EP713_DescriptiveEpi/EP713_DescriptiveEpi3.html#:~:text=Epi_Tools.XLSX-,Epidemic%20Curves,give%20clues%20about%20the%20source.
