Upon assuming office, US President Donald Trump made it clear that his administration would pursue an American first policy. Essentially, Trump’s government will ensure that all its operations are in the service of American interests. International collaboration with American partners is among the issues that have seen the effects of Trump’s policy. For example, Trump has called on America’s allies to increase their defense spending. Trump has gone as far as encouraging its partners to invest in nuclear weapons so as to reduce their reliance on American defense support. Australia is among the nations that have been forces to re-examine THEIR military relationships with the US. For decades, the US and Australia have maintained a close military alliance that has enabled both nations to join forces in tackling shared threats. However, given Trump’s inward focus, Australia must now understand that its reliance on US support is untenable. A review of the threats that the country faces, the changing global geopolitical climate and Australia’s defense budget suggests that this nation lacks the capacity to adequately defense itself without American support.
Australia Reliance on US
The fact that Australia faces a growing number of complex security challenges is among the main reasons why the country would be unable to effectively defend itself if it were to lose American support. Edraki (2019) authored an informative article in which he identified some of the threats that Australia is grappling with today. He notes that among other things, Australia faces a serious security threat posed by China. According to Edraki, China has been asserting sovereignty and exhibiting military might in the South China Sea. Given that China has been investing heavily in its military, it would be nearly impossible for Australia to stave off the Chinese threat without relying on the US. In 2019, China set aside over $164 billion to be spent on military operations (Tweed, 2019). India is yet another nation that has been flexing its military muscle. This is according to Edraki who cautions that as India continues to develop its economy, its investment in the military will only grow. China and India’s threat to Australia rests on a geopolitical basis. Located in Asia, these nations are rather close to Australia and the threat that they pose is immediate and cannot be ignored. Australia is simply ill prepared to respond to these threats and should therefore strive to establish even closer military relationships with the US.
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Nations are not the only actors that are giving Australia cause for concern. The country also faces threats from terrorist organizations. The Islamic State is among the terrorist groups that have established a presence in Australia. For instance, recently, police conducted raids that led to the arrests of individuals with links to the Islamic State. Additionally, there are dozens of Australians who went to Syria to fight for the Islamic State. With the defeat of this organization, Australia is confronted with the challenge of deciding how to deal with Australians who fought for the organization. Support from the US would go a long way in strengthening Australia’s response to terrorism. According to the US Central Intelligence Agency, Australia and the US have established a strong and decades-long counter-terrorism partnership (Grono, 2008). Australia has become so reliant on this relationship that it would be extremely difficult for the country to successfully eliminate the terrorist threat. Therefore, if Australia is to protect its people against terrorism, it should understand that the US is an indispensable partner.
Economic strength is among the factors that influence a nation’s military might. In general, wealthier nations are able to invest greater amounts in their military. There is no doubt that being a rich country, Australia should be able to ensure that its military operations are adequately financed. A look at the country’s military budget reveals that it is investing less than such other nations as China. For example, according to the World Bank, in 2018, the defense budget for Australia stood at a meager $26.7 billion (“Military Expenditures”, 2019). On the other hand, China invested close to $250 billion while India set aside over $66 billion. These figures show that Australia lags behind is adversaries as regards defense spending. Should the country be drawn into a military confrontation, there is no doubt that it would be fighting from a position of serious disadvantage. There is indeed a need for the country to continue to rely on the US for military support. Unlike Australia which spends small amounts on its defense, the US has the world’s largest military budget. Figures shared by the World Bank place the US military budget at close to $650 billion (“Military Expenditures”, 2019). Without American support and if Australia does not increase its defense budget, the country would simply be unable to defend itself.
A nation’s capacity to build self-sufficiency in defense hinges heavily on the quality of its arsenal. To successfully stave off threats, a nation needs to invest in the latest and best equipment and technology. Australia is among the nations that continue to rely on outdated and largely ineffective military equipment. Hellyer (2018) penned an article that featured on the online edition of the Australian. In the article, Hellyer raises questions about the wisdom behind equipment purchases made by the Australian army. According to Hellyer, some of this equipment are outdated and fail to account for the changing military landscape of the modern world. While Australia is looking to buy obsolete hardware, its adversaries are investing in better technologies and equipment. For example, reports indicate that China has partnered with such companies as Huawei for military research (Reuters, 2019). Through this partnership, China hopes to enhance the capabilities of its military equipment. Artificial intelligence is among the specific technologies that China is injecting into its equipment. This is according to Hille and Waters (2018) who reported that China has been accelerating military research and development initiatives. The fact that its enemies are making progress in the development of more sophisticated technologies and equipment should serve to remind Australia that it is doomed if it walks away from its partnership with the US. As opposed to Australia which seems to be making little effort to modernize its military, the US remains the undisputed global leader in military technology. In fact, the US has established a fully-fledged agency that is tasked with the responsibility of spearheading military research and development projects. Referred to as the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), this agency strives to ensure that the US owns and deploys equipment and weapons with superior capabilities (Congressional Research Service, 2018). If Australia wishes to benefit from US investments in military technologies, it should take all necessary steps to preserve the alliance between the two nations. America’s advanced military capabilities and Australia’s inferior equipment combine to doom the latter to a state of perpetual and desperate dependence on the US for military support.
It is true that military prowess is the main capability that constitutes defense. As made clear in the discussion above, since it lacks this prowess, Australia is vulnerable and should therefore continue to rely on the US. Apart from military might, political power is another capability that determines a nation’s capacity to defend itself. Australia is indeed a significant global player. However, it lacks the political power and influence to direct global affairs. To understand Australia’s vulnerability, one should consider the case of North Korea. Edraki (2019) singles out North Korea as among the nations about which Australia should be worried. Possessing nuclear weapons and ruled by an unstable leader, this country is indeed a serious threat. In the recent past, the US has been involved in efforts to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear program. These efforts involve a combination of economic sanctions and diplomacy. The numerous meetings that North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un has held with his US counterpart President Trump indicate that American efforts are yielding success. The US holds the key to protecting Australia against North Korea. Australia simply lacks the political clout required to compel North Korea to embrace denuclearization. Therefore, without American support, Australia cannot defend itself.
Australia Self-Sufficiency
Above, the discussion has defended the argument that Australia is ill-equipped and lacks the political capital it requires to protect itself against the various threats that it faces. In the interest of balance and fairness, there is a need to examine the case that Australia can be self-sufficient and does not necessarily require US support for its defense. White (2019) addressed Australia’s capacity for defend itself in his article. On the question of whether Australia is prepared to eliminate the various security threats and risks that could compromise the safety of its people, White issues assurances that the country possesses proper capabilities. He also adds that Australia has moved beyond the point of whether it can defend itself. The fact that the US has made it clear that its allies cannot rely on it for support coupled with the new emerging threats that Australia faces only mean that Australia must defend itself. As noted in a previous section, President Trump is calling on American allies to develop their militaries and to reduce their level of reliance on American capabilities. His rhetoric should impose pressure on Australia to join the list of countries that are investing greater amounts in their militaries.
Australia appears to understand that its dependence on US is untenable and unsustainable. This can be seen in the country’s recent efforts to establish alliances with other partners. For instance, according to the Australian Embassy in the Philippines, the two nations signed an agreement that commit them to invest in a military alliance. The agreement also set up a legal framework that would serve as the basis for the military operations that Australia and the Philippines conduct together (Australian Embassy, n.d). By turning to such countries as the Philippines, Australia is making clear that even without American support, it can indeed defend itself. The new alliances should comfort those who worry that American hostility will leave Australia vulnerable and exposed to grave security threats.
If Australia is to be successful in defending itself after severing military ties with the US, the nation would need to increase its defense budget. This appears to be what the country is doing. According to the World Bank, the $26.7 billion that the country allocated for the military represented a significant increase from the amount that it spent in previous years (World Bank, 2019).. It can be expected that as the nation’s defense spending increases, its military capability will be enhanced. In his article, White insists that Australia can indeed defend itself. However, he adds that the nation simply must spend more on its military. Therefore, while the country may need to continue relying on the US, with sustained increases in its defense budget, it should ultimately achieve self-sufficiency.
One of the critical factors that shape a country’s military power is its economy. Generally, a strong economy sets the stage for heavy investment in the military. As noted above, Australia has increased its defense budget and it can be expected that the increases will be sustained over time. The country’s strong economy is among the forces that will fuel its military self-sufficiency. Data from the Reserve Bank of Australia shows that the country’s economy is strong and stable. For example, according to the data, the country is experiencing a 1.4% economic growth and the inflation stands at 1.6% (RBA, 2019). Moreover, the unemployment rate is only 5.2% while wages have witnessed a 2.3% increase. These indicators combine to create a picture of a nation that is in a position from which it can develop a stronger military. It is true that the country’s economic growth is far below that of such other countries as China whose GDP growth was reported at 6.2% (RBA, 2019). However, all factors considered, the Australian economy is so strong that it can afford to increase defense spending. Therefore, given the stability and strength of Australia’s economy, it is fair and reasonable to suppose that the country would be able to effectively defend itself if abandoned by the US.
In closing, the globe is witnessing an increase in the number and severity of security threats. For example, the Islamic State has carried out a number of devastating attacks that have left hundreds dead and many more wounded. These attacks have challenged nations to re-examine their defense strategies. In particular, countries are seeking to form new alliances. Australia is among the nations which exemplify the changes in the global security environment. For years, this country has turned to the US for military support. With Trump threatening to abandon military alliances, Australia is forced to consider its military approach. The country’s present situation suggests that pulling out of the military alliance with the US would have catastrophic results. However, if Australia stays on the current path, it could eventually develop the military competencies that it needs for self-sufficiency.
References
Australian Embassy. (n.d). MR0106 Australia and Philippines strengthen defence ties. Australian Embassy. Retrieved September 11, 2019 from https://philippines.embassy.gov.au/mnla/medrel0106.html
Congressional Research Service. (2018). Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency: overview and issues for Congress. Federation of American Scientists. Retrieved September 11, 2019 from https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R45088.pdf
Edraki, F. (2019). Spy chief Nick Warner on the security threats facing Australia, from terrorism to North Korea. ABC. Retrieved September 11, 2019 from https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-06/australia-spy-chief-nick-warner-biggest-threats-to-the-nation/10974214
Grono, N. (2008). Australia’s response to terrorism. Central Intelligence Agency. Retrieved September 11, 2019 from https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol48no1/article03.html
Hellyer, M. (2018). Army must adapt to evolution in its military purchases. The Australian. Retrieved September 11, 2019 from https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/army-must-adapt-to-evolution-in-its-military-purchases/news-story/28db412778504f2c861a151c676eccd8
Hille, K., & Waters, R. (2018). Washington unnerved by China’s ‘military-civil fusion’. Financial Times. Retrieved September 11, 2019 from https://www.ft.com/content/8dcb534c-dbaf-11e8-9f04-38d397e6661c
Military expenditures (current USD). (2019). World Bank. Retrieved September 11, 2019 from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.CD
Reuters. (2019). Huawei employees worked with China military on research projects: Bloomberg. Reuters. Retrieved September 11, 2019 from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-tech-china-military/huawei-employees-worked-with-china-military-on-research-projects-bloomberg-idUSKCN1TS02V
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). (2019). Key economic indicators. RBA. Retrieved September 11, 2019 from https://www.rba.gov.au/snapshots/economy-indicators-snapshot/
Tweed, D. (2019). China defense spending set to rise 7.5% as Xi builds up military. Bloomberg. Retrieved September 11, 2019 from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-05/china-s-military-spending-slows-as-economy-cools
White, H. (2019). Asian century throws up the question once again of the nation’s military defence capability. The Australian. Retrieved September 11, 2019 from https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Finquirer%2Fasian-century-throws-up-the-question-once-again-of-the-nations-military-defence-capability%2Fnews-story%2F13ab8c7d0ee3d7d6250da7576f5efbba&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium
