Al Qaeda and Associated Movements (AQAM) has become an increasingly turgid security threat that can only be eliminated if the policymakers form a global atmosphere that is hostile and unbearable for the terrorists. By so doing, the states would be able to analyze the possible emergence of terrorism in the near future. The first part of this paper discusses the paradigm which is the most probable, while the second part establishes the strategic shock that would have the most detrimental effect on U.S. foreign policy.
Part One
The most probable paradigm is paradigm two- An Affiliate- Driven AQAM by 2025. The paradigm describes the transformation of AQAM from a decentralized association inspired and occasionally led by Al Qaeda core into a pattern of militant groups operating without any centralized leadership.
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Akrani (2010) states that decentralization facilitates expansion of various activities. Unlike in centralization whereby all activities are conducted from a particular central place, decentralization makes coordination much easier and fastens the undertakings.
According to the paradigm, in 2025, the terrorist coverage will be more explosive since Islamists violence heaves from a reliance of a robust booming individual associates instead of from a central organization. Besides, the emergence of technology, which would probably be upgraded within a period of five years, the AQAM activities would become easier.YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook provides a platform for billion users to share information anytime, anywhere. The social media platforms also allow people with a common interest to find each other, or sell their ideas to the like-minded people who are willing to work with them. Through these platforms, groups can organize and handle their activities globally. These trending media platforms with the advanced technology will be so beneficial to the AQAM.
Cook (2018) comments that the basic paradigm established by terrorists is that individuals are enticed through networks. Habitually, they have particular familial or social connection. For instance, quite a number can be recruited through football, religion, and jobs among others. The AQAM, seemingly have grand long-term goalsthat will ensure their successive attacks by 2025.
Part Two
The strategic shock that would cause a big effect on the U.S foreign policy will be the Israel-Iran war that would shake the global economy, as Iran plans to attack the Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure as well as to force the U.S to confine Israel.
According to Schwartz (2017), An Israeli strike on Iran would surgeuncertainty in the Middle East. Iran is known to support the terrorism activities, and so, the Iranians would likely use delegations to stir up trouble in many areas. They would possibly disrupt the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf to the West by blocking the Gulf of Hormuz. The prices of oil would rise due to the unsteady conditions and possible disruptions. Steps to get the global economy, and especially that of the U.S back on track would be a huge set back, with even worse economic conditions resulting.
Reference
Akrani G. (2010). Introduction to Decentralization. Kalyan City Life.
Cook D. (2018). What Lures Jihadists From Daesh to Al Qaeda. Sputnik International.
Schwartz R. (2017). The Times of Israel . Why U.S Foreign Policy is Most Consistent with Jewish Values.
