Singh, D., & Haraksingh, I. (2016, September 5). Earthquakes can be Predicted. Retrieved from https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/earthquakes-can-be-predicted-2381-8719-1000255.php?aid=79790
The author Dharanjit Singh is a researcher in the Physics Department at the University of West Indies in Trinidad and Tobago. The author has played a significant role in the research world undertaking research work making useful contributions in seismology, earthquake seismology, and tectonics. As such, the author can be concluded to command considerable respect amongst other researchers in the field of Physics and thus is suited to make the publication on how the earthquakes can be predicted.
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Indra Haraksignh is the co-author of the article with an equally notable contribution in the world of research, especially in Physics. The co-author is a professor of Physics at the University of West Indies with a reputation within the renewable energy research circles. Most notably, the co-author has made a notable reputation in raising awareness and promoting dialogue as well as influencing policy making with respect to renewable energy in addition to other science fields.
Critique of the primary source
The article has been cited as having the objective of coming up with a reliable way in addition to a scientific precursor that has the ability to predict with utmost accuracy the potential of the occurrence of an earthquake. More precisely, the author postulates the ability to create a way of predicting earthquakes within two days of their occurrence while eliminating the chances of having false predictions. According to the author, the correctly predicting earthquakes can be achieved by using pendulums positively predicting fourteen out of fifteen earthquakes within the specified area of study.
The effect of the article on the earth as a whole
It is worth noting that a positive prediction of earthquakes has immense significance. To begin with, accurate earthquake prediction can help in making preparing and making evacuations in areas where the earthquakes are likely to strike. It can be argued that this is the single most important benefit that the accurate prediction of earthquakes has on the earth as a whole. Usually, when earthquakes strike, they leave a trail of intense destruction both in property as well as lives. Destruction of property causes countries and individuals to suffer huge economic losses. Moreover, there is psychological torture that accompanies disasters with the intensity of earthquakes. Therefore, being able to predict earthquakes accurately and within two days of the occurrence of the articles may prove critical in making evacuations for property and people thus downplaying the impact that would arise from the quakes.
Another notable advantage that may arise from the accurate prediction of earthquakes is the ability to disconnect gas, water, and electricity connections. Studies have shown that earthquakes have a significant impact on critical infrastructure. Often, the trail of destruction on such infrastructure can have more devastating chain effects on areas that are even far off from where the earthquakes have struck. For example, earthquakes may have an impact on power grid systems supplying power to health care facilities leading to a shutdown of machines within the hospital risking its operations.
How does the article relate to my life?
In my opinion, the article has numerous relations in my life. First, being able to successfully predict the occurrence of earthquakes will prove important to me noting that I have close relatives in the Honolulu which has been cited as one of the areas having a significant potential of experiencing high magnitude earthquake. By having an accurate way of predicting the occurrence of earthquakes, the safety of my relatives would be guaranteed. In addition, the prediction of earthquakes would prove significant in my endeavor to study seismology.
Is the article good science
The article can be argued to be good science noting that the researcher employs a standard method of making the prediction. According to the article, the prediction is aiming at utilizing pendulums with the theory being based on the relationship that exists between time and gravity. Gravity and time are viewed as being influenced by the mass of converging or diverging plates whose motion impacts significantly on the densities of the plates. Increasing mass of the converging plates results in density increases and subsequent increases in gravity. The researcher shows the relationship between increasing gravity and time taken for the pendulum to make thirty oscillations indicating that gravity increase will result in decreased time for the oscillations to be completed. On the other hand, plates that are moving far away from each other will result in decreasing mass, decreasing gravity, and the subsequent increase in the time taken for the pendulums to complete thirty oscillations. Through this method, the researcher postulates that it is possible to predict earthquakes making success in predicting numerous earthquakes in Guadeloupe, Barbuda, Antigua, and Montserrat.
On another front, the research can be argued as good science given that the researcher has been able to support the method. According to the article, whenever three pendulums show decreasing or increasing times simultaneously then there is an imminent earthquake. Furthermore, the researchers create a connection between gravity changes and deviations in time to plates motion making the thirty oscillations work as a scientific precursor to earthquake prediction. However, the method has only been useful in making predictions for earthquakes that are below the magnitude score of five. According to the “International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior” presentation on the prediction of earthquakes, there are several notable precursor aspects for the precise prediction of earthquakes. First, there ought to be validation criteria where an anomaly that is related to strain or stress results in an earthquake. In this research work, it has been shown that changes in gravity and time in oscillations is due to convergence or divergence of earth plates which causes earthquakes. Additionally, there should be adequate data, detection, and association of the anomalous happenings to subsequent earthquakes. The research work in his article satisfies the basic requirements with data being shown on how the anomalous changes have been similar to the occurrences of subsequent earthquakes.
Pros and cons of the article
The article has stood out as good science and will have a significant impact on the prediction of earthquakes. Using pendulums to make predictions has the advantage of setting up pendulums in any part of the world since they are not complex machines. However, the data collected only makes reference to predicting earthquakes that are twenty-one kilometers deep in the earth's crust making it challenging to establish whether longer distances can be covered using the simple method. As noted earlier, the research has not provided data for earthquakes that are larger than four on the magnitude scale. Therefore, improvements can be made by providing data for distances longer than twenty-one kilometers in an attempt to predict higher magnitude earthquakes.
