Earthquakes in Nepal and Japan

Introduction 

Natural disasters can hit any place in the world, more often without warning. The events are usually hazardous and result from the Earth’s natural processes. Such events include heat waves, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, wildfire, drought, and tsunami. The degree of damage is usually determined by the damage caused by loss of property lives and the country’s potential to recover. The magnitude of the catastrophe is also determined by the population of the regions stricken (Ishikawa, 2015). If it occurs in an unpopulated or less populated region, there is likely less damage in comparison to if it occurs in a dense or vulnerable population. This paper discusses earthquakes with focus on the past and future predictions of the disasters, the use of technology and the ability to determine the exact locations. I will use Nepal and Japan to describe the events in further details. 

The Past and future predictions of earthquakes 

An earthquake is the trembling of the Earth’s surface as a result of unexpected emission of energy to its lithosphere which leads to seismic waves. Seismicity describes the size, type, and frequency of earthquakes as felt over the years. The events can lead to displacement of the ground thus resulting in volcanic activity and landslides. The frequencies of the occurrence of earthquakes are studied by scientists to determine the likelihood of reoccurrence in the future. In 1906 (nearly 100 years ago) when an earthquake struck San Francisco, it was impossible for scientists to predict the same (Santiago-Fandiño et al. 2017). This led to the creation of earthquake science field which collected information that has been used in studies over the years. Failure to define a practical method of predicting the disaster has led to further studies and research and studies concerning the same. In the modern times, scientists are better placed in predicting the phenomena as opposed to 100 years ago. Although predictions can be based on the location of the vulnerable regions and the movement of plates, sudden shocks in part of a system can easily extend to another part that was not previously considered faulty. 

Earthquake precursors 

Precursors refer to the significant changes that are observed before an earthquake. The state seismological bureau of China suggests that the country largely depends on precursors to predict the disaster. Tectonic precursors describe tectonic movements which occur off the development region as a connection to each area before the earthquake. The physical precursors are however indirect or direct indications that progress or initiate the forthcoming tremor. Examples of such phenomena are the uplift of the crust of the Izu Peninsula in Japan which preceded the Izu-Oshima earthquake in 1978 (Santiago-Fandiño et al. 2017). Based on previous studies, larger precursors increases the probability of higher magnitudes and time proximity to the occurrence. More so, they tend to take place closer to the epicenter of the tremor. 

Use of technology 

Nations all over the world have gradually advanced in early warning and national emergency abilities in attempts to develop effective means of disaster response. Such methods include sirens, phone messaging and radio broadcasts which deliver timely information to the population. To improve predictability of earthquakes, laser beams have been developed to monitor plate movements within the earth’s surface (Hayakawa, 2015). More so, the seismometer has been designed to detect vibrations in the crust of the Earth with increased vibrations suggesting a possibility of occurrence. Technology has also been used to determine emissions of Radon gas from the crust with an increase in the volume indicating a forthcoming tremor. In major cities, technology has been used to establish earthquake proof buildings. More so, the construction of powerful infrastructures such as roads and bridges has increased their resistance to the tremors. Mass education through training and holding nationwide drills over the media has also helped to increase public knowledge about the occurrence earthquakes. Although the prediction tools used to detect the tremors are not fully reliable, technology has contributed to increase accuracy and to reduce the possible number of deaths and loss of property. 

Ability to predict exact location and magnitude of an earthquake 

With increased research on the external variables of earthquakes such as gamma ray bursts, planet alignment, and solar flare activities, scientists have become more accurate in their predictions. However, there is more emphasis on the need to determine the exact state of faults within the Earth’s crust in contrast to the external forces. This has made it harder to predict the exact location and magnitude of earthquakes (Santiago-Fandiño et al. 2017). The impossibility to dig deeper into the planet has restricted data collection which could establish the state of stress on the faults hence increasing accuracy. With the current knowledge and technology, scientists are left to rely on past occurrence to predict the likelihood and to approximate locations and magnitudes. 

Summary details on the recovery process of Nepal 

An avalanche on Mount Everest triggered the 7.8 magnitude Nepal earthquake on 25th April 2015 (Ishikawa, 2015). This led to a greater avalanche in the Langtang valley thus spreading its damage. This resulted in the loss of 8,857 in the country with the damages extending to India, China and Bangladesh. The nation also lost about 10 billion dollars which are almost half of its nominal GDP. There was widespread destruction of agricultural land, government and residential buildings, bridges, hydroelectric plants and heritage sites. Despite the high level of damage caused, so little has been done in the nation since the tremor occurred (Ishikawa, 2015). 

The slow recovery process of the country has been attributed to the harsh climatic conditions and poor access roads to the affected villages. More so, political instability has undermined the movement of essential materials of construction and use by the population. The poor preparedness of the national disaster management wing of the government has also attributed to the slow process. Besides, it has also led to delays in the establishment of the National Reconstruction Authority. The disaster pushed a larger proportion of the nation’s population below the poverty line thus increasing the inequalities in income distribution in the nation. It destroyed the economy’s backbone which is agriculture leading to lower production as signified by unavailability of commodities and increase in market prices. Therefore, the nation has never fully recovered from the aftermath. With delayed aid from the government, people have begun rebuilding the villages on their own. While 4 million people live in temporary shelters, 113,384 families have relocated back to their homes (Ugai et al. 2012). The government provided 2000 US dollars in grants and 25,000 US dollars in subsidized loans to fund the affected families (Ugai et al. 2012). However, access to financial systems remains a challenge to the larger part of the population and hence less than one percent of the people have received the funding so far. More than 50 percent of those who died were women and children (Ugai et al. 2012). This has heightened the level of social evils such as forced prostitution, human trafficking and sexual violence against women. 

Summary details on the recovery process of Japan 

On 11th March 2011, Japan was hit by an earthquake of 9.0-9.1 magnitude which caused massive loss of lives and property (Ugai et al. 2012). It led to insurance losses amounting to 34.6 billion US dollars. In attempt to balance the market conditions, the Bank of Japan injected 183 billion US dollars into the banking system (Ugai et al. 2012). The disaster was dubbed the most costly in history with an approximation of US $235 billion loss to the economy as stated by the World Bank (Ugai et al. 2012). The country has somewhat recovered from the quake owing to the $5.5 million grant donation by Direct Relief to 13 Japanese aid groups (Smawfield 89). The Japan Earthquake Relief and Recovery fund which was founded by the Direct Relief and Japanese American Citizens League fully committed its contributions in rebuilding the nation. 

All contributions made were distributed to the grassroots to fund emergency response shelters and feeding for the affected families. Large numbers of evacuees have secured permanent housing, and improved bridges and roads have been built around the cities. However, much attention has been shifted to the reconstruction of the Fukushima nuclear plant thus limiting the availability of construction materials and workers. The raising of the town centers by 8 feet has been effected to reduce their vulnerability to earthquakes in the future (Ugai et al. 2012). 

Current situation in Nepal and Japan 

As of September 2017, the population of Nepal was 29,242,812 based on the estimates by the United Nations (Smawfield, 2013). This represents almost 0.39 percent of the total world population. The nation’s population stood at 28.66 million (Smawfield, 2013) when the disaster hit and is expected to hit 36.16milion in 2050. In the recent years, the nation has suffered various natural disasters such as landslides, floods, and forest fires. The most likely disaster to hit Nepal is another earthquake having ranked 11th on the basis of vulnerability in the world. As of September 2017, Japan’s population is 125.97 million (Smawfield, 2013). It stood at 127.32 million before disaster and is expected to decrease to 107 million in 2050 (Smawfield, 2013). The recent disasters faced by the country include volcanic eruptions, mudslides with more vulnerability to tsunamis. 

Compare and contrast Japan and Nepal 

Nepal was hit 7.8 Richter scale earthquake while Japan’s was 8.5 (Santiago-Fandiño et al., 2017). However, Japan has made greater progress in rebuilding the nation in comparison to Nepal. Whereas more people were injured in the Nepal disaster, more were killed in the Japanese one. The Japanese buildings were of higher value and hence the cost of rebuilding was higher as compared to Nepal. The immediate response by Japan is attributed to advancement in science, political system, and technology. Nepal faces political instability and lacks capital to finance the full recovery process. The high death toll in Japan is attributed to its high-rise buildings and larger urban population who works indoors as compared to Nepal’s rural population (Ugai et al., 2012). More so, the Japan earthquake was deeper with about 590 kilometers beneath the crust while Nepal’s was almost 15 kilometers and thus the distance between the epicenter and the hypocenter in Nepal was shorter (Santiago-Fandiño et al., 2017). The amount of energy released in a tremor decreases with distance and thus the deeper the quake, the lesser the damage caused. Nevertheless, the Japanese are committed and industrious as compared to the Nepalese, and hence they took lesser time to overcome the disaster. 

Conclusion 

A nation’s preparedness in disaster management greatly affects the magnitude of damage caused and the rate of recovery. It is essential for governments to invest in national emergency response units and to educate the public about the same. Although it has been proven difficult to predict earthquakes exactly, technology can be used to detect its precursors. 

References 

Hayakawa, M. (2015).  Earthquake prediction with radio techniques . 

Ugai, K., Yagi, H., Wakai, A., & International Symposium on Earthquake-Induced Landslides, (2012).  Earthquake-induced landslides: Proceedings of the International Symposium on Earthquake-Induced Landslides, Kiryu, Japan, 2012 . Berlin: Springer-Verlag. 

Ishikawa, A., &Tsujimoto, A. (2015).  Uncertainty and catastrophe management: The 2011 great East Japan earthquake and beyond . 

Santiago-Fandiño, V., Sato, S., Maki, N., &Iuchi, K. (2017).  The 2011 Japan Earthquake and Tsunami: Reconstruction and restoration: insights and assessment after 5 Years . Cham: Springer. 

Smawfield, D. (2013).  Education and natural disasters: Education as a humanitarian response . London: Bloomsbury Academic.