Democracy still remains a dream yet to come true in the Middle East as the promise of the Arab Spring has given way to authoritarian retrenchment, democratic breakdown, and civil war. Even nations that seemed hopeful to attaining democracy are now zones of clashes between citizens and the governments, military domination and the arrest of activists and journalists.
After the 2011 Arab spring uprisings, a debate raged amongst Egyptians and Tunisians over the very nature of their societies, how a good deal of the continued Islamization turned into imposition and manufacturing, and whether it was a true representation of society. Without the stifling yoke of dictatorship, a few reasoned, Arabs were capable of expressing their proper sentiments without fear of persecution (Haynes, 2013).
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An increasingly charged debate over the role of religion in public existence positioned western analysts and policymakers in the uncomfortable position of having to prioritize a few values they keep pricey over others. In the western experience, democracy and liberalism typically went hand in hand, to the extent that democracy in popular utilization became shorthand for liberal democracy. Liberalism preceded democracy, permitting the latter to flourish.
In 2011 and 2012, a series of uprisings occurred in the Arab world many people expected the end of authoritarianism in much of the region. At the end of the protests there were only few changes in the regime and the resignation of dictators in four different countries. Zine El Abidine Ben Ali who had ruled Tunisia for more than 20 years fled followed by the president of Egypt Hosni Mubarak who had ruled over Egypt for 30 years. Muammar Gaddafi of Libya tried to put in a fight but he too was taken from office following interventions by NATO. Finally Ali Abddullah Saleh of Yemen who was a dictator also resigned from office. These leaders were put out of office following the mass protests in their countries and although in nations like Syria the protests were crushed there was enough reason to believe that the Middle East was headed for democracy (Berry, 2014).
Four years later since these incidences it is evident that none of those efforts translated in to democracy. Of all the countries that the protests took place it is only Tunisia that can be said to have acquired democracy. In Tunisia there have been two democratic elections and in these elections the results were respected by the majority of the country’s population and the new government was allowed to rule. In Egypt elections were conducted in 2011 and a new legislature was brought in but it was later dissolved by the courts (Elman, 2012). The elected president was later on overthrown by the military. Libya and Yemen are both in states of civil war and they are much more like Syria than they are Tunisia and or even Egypt.
The reason why the Arab Spring has not translated in to democracy is because the conditions needed for democracy to take place are not present in most of the Arab countries. For example, a country like Egypt is underdeveloped and the civil societies in the country are weak thus unable to solve the problems of the citizens. After revolution in Egypt the economy continued to go down and the citizens grew impatient with the government and they therefore attributed the crumble of the economy to democratic system (Halpern, 2015). In addition countries like Yemen and Libya are marred with tribalism and it would be difficult for them to move from the authoritarian system of government to democracy without fighting first the struggle where oppressed groups were not allowed to own wealth or even power.
As compared to Egypt, Tunisia always had a small army which was subordinate to the citizen’s political authority while in Egypt the army was always the central point of politics and therefore it was only a matter of time before the army overthrew the rule of democracy because it was always accustomed to ruling. Egypt was headed to fail in democracy because of the dominance of the retrograde, illiberal Islamists in the country during its first election, the general state of poverty in Egypt and the weak state of the country’s apparatus (Berry, 2014). Tunisia succeeded in attaining democracy not only because it had a small army but also because it was more economically developed, had more literate citizens and the liberals were stronger than the Islamists. Again as compared to Egypt whose population stands at 80 million, Tunisia only has a population of ten million people which is way less than the population at Egypt’s capital city of Cairo. However it cannot be fully said that there are no prospects or hopes for democracy in Middle East because there are leaders in these countries who believe that there is potential within the Arab spring for governments that are more accountable and more responsive to the needs of its citizens. However from the incidences that occurred as a result of the Arab Spring one can say that the path of revolution may not really lead to success.
A close look at Middle East reveals that apart from Tunisia those other places that have had a movement towards democracy have been those with regimes that were not generally rocked by the Arab Spring. An example of that would be Morocco which cannot be termed as a liberal democracy today. In the country the scope of democratic competition has grown due to the reforms that were initiated by the country’s King in the wake of the Arab Spring (Halpern, 2015). Limited liberalizations also took place in other countries in the Arab world and these places did not experience mass protests. It can be noted that those countries that exercised the limited democracy have succeeded in coming up with representative governments that are more accountable and more responsive to the needs of their citizens.
Generally, religion and Islam in particular plays a very crucial role when it comes to political movements in the Arab world. Religion in these places is hugely dominant and a force which is so powerful in reshaping the region. In the past when elections were conducted in countries like Tunisia and Egypt it was evident that the parties that emerged to be winners comprised of religiously conservative individuals (Hamid, 2014). However the electoral success of religion is being dwarfed by the new phenomenon of the Islamic state in the Levant and in Iraq. This new phenomenon is of the notion that all Muslims all over the world are supposed to be united under one political and religious leader. People all over the world might think that in the Arab world religion is this powerful force and that a lot of the problems being observed in the Arab world are courtesy of Islam which impels its followers to establish Islamic governments.
However this is not the case, in fact the reason that the ISIL still exists and the reason why it has been able to rule and take over vast territories in the region is not simply because of the inherent power of Islam or the inherent power of Islamist ideology. ISIL still exists because in 2003 the U.S. government made some decisions which were not very well received by the general world and these decisions resulted in the disruption of the Iraqi state which in turn made room for the emergence of non-state actors, like ISIS (Haynes, 2013). The invasion of Iraq and the consequences that later followed are still very present in the Arab World today and therefore for change to take place in these places the countries should take the reformists path. This is because any time there are goals towards immediate change in institutions like the government the results are always very negative.
It can be seen that the Middle East aimed to transition through the toughest phase of the human experience. It is aimed to shift from a place where power is vested in an individual clan leader called Al-Za'eem to a place where power can be vested in an institution like the government. Although the reign and influence of the Al Qaeda is being eradicated ISIL has emerged which is said to be a more organized group which is deadlier than that Al Qaeda. A country like Syria faces constant upheavals and its citizens continue to flee to other countries as refugees. Sad as the situation is in Middle East, the region is going through the same routes as the west to finally get to liberalism and democracy and attain the belief that power should be vested in institutions and not war institutions (Elman, 2012).
The Middle East is going through a phase where it has to realize that any government should not be ruled by religion or religious biased individuals or groups but that power should be vested in people or institutions that are accountable and responsive to the well-being of the citizens. It might be a long shot from here but it is not an impossibility. In the coming years the Middle East will be defined by its entry in to the nation-states stage which is characterized by cultural development. However the transition to this stage may be made difficult by several factors. One of the factors that stand in the way of democracy in the Middle East is the allegiance to clan leaders who have been known to hold power for many generations and they are willing to use any method to stay in power. They are not afraid to use brutal strategies to continue oppressing the weak all in the name of staying in power and retaining the seat of power which they believe is naturally theirs. Secondly the presence of oil in the region is bound to slow down the process of attaining democracy. Oil has been known to propagate the fallacy of wealth to the hands of the few who are wealthy (Ahmadov, 2013).
This propagation has been seen as a symbol of modernity which has led to a sense of entitlement and complacency where the rich feel like it is their right to be in power. The countries in Middle East are being ruled by oil tyrants who feel that those without wealth should not be allowed to rule. This sense of entitlement has made them resistant to leave the political seats and they are willing to use any brutal methods to ensure that they stay in power for many generations to come.
Finally democracy in the Middle East may be hindered by the failure of Arab Nationalism. This is an indigenous concept that was brought about and enforced by Arab philosophers who went to school in the west but they placed their ideologies in the hands of the military leaders who with time they became dictators. With the military dictating every political move in the country the citizens are too scared to stand up to them and therefore they continue to live under this notion that they are the minorities and therefore they cannot stand up against the army (Brown, and Shahin, 2013). This notion has continued to stifle even the mere thought of democracy in these regions and people who have tried to come up with the idea of democracy have either been killed or locked up and tortured.
The path towards democracy in Middle East is not an easy one but it is a possible one and the Western world has a critical role to play in helping these regions attain democracy. The West has to engage with these regions and help them show a different manifestation of power. There needs to be a paradigm shift from the military form of rule to a rule where human capacities are considered and taken care of.
These countries should be empowered to realize that their voices need to be heard and therefore they should stand up and fight for their human rights to choose and select their leaders (House, 2013). For example the mass protests that occurred in some regions of the Arab world saw the end of dictatorship in some countries. If these protestors persisted with the protests then the countries would have attained their independence towards democracy long ago. Citizens should not bend backwards; they should move forward and fight for the rights towards democracy and accountability by leaders.
This move will help shape the politics in the Arab world for decades to come. One thing should be considered when talking about democracy in the Arab world and that is that geopolitics and its nature requires great and deep understanding of the values that motivate cultures and the different models of governance that are needed to place each country on a sustainable path way. Until that is clear, the Arab world will never realize its dream of democracy.
References
Ahmadov, A. K. (2013). Oil, democracy, and context a meta-analysis. Comparative Political Studies , 0010414013495358.
Berry, P. (2014). Bridging Policy, Bridging Regions: America's involvement in promoting democracy in the Middle East. Chicago Policy Review (Online) .
Brown, N. J., & Shahin, E. (Eds.). (2013). The struggle over democracy in the Middle East: regional politics and external policies (Vol. 1). Routledge.
Elman, M. F. (2012). The Arab Spring and the Future of Democracy in the Middle East: Rethinking Middle Eastern Studies. Palestine-Israel Journal of Politics, Economics, and Culture , 18 (1), 98.
Halpern, M. (2015). Politics of Social Change: In the Middle East and North Africa . Princeton University Press.
Hamid, S. (2014). Temptations of power: Islamists and illiberal democracy in a new Middle East . Oxford University Press.
Haynes, J. (2013). Democracy in the Developing World: Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East . John Wiley & Sons.
House, F. (2013). Freedom in the World 2013. Democratic breakthroughs in the balance , 5 .
