Mathematics is an everyday present thing and is applied in different life situations. Probability on the other hand, is one of the many mathematical concepts in which people apply in their lives more often than they may realize. Though it may not be an outright application, people plan their day’s events based on probability. According to Pappanastos & Wheatley (2019), the probability is the chance of an event occurring or not occurring. Used in different applications such as weather forecasting, insurance, sports strategies, gambling, business making among others, probability knowledge is applied more often than people or organizations may realize (Haugaard & Lähteenmäki, 2017).
Having worked in my father’s hotel business, it was my turn to become the leading, manager of the business entity. Over the past two years, I have been in charge of deciding on key business operations such as the type of dish to be offered to our customers. Depending on the customers' remark, market trends, and availability of foods to prepare, the hotel industry has remained functional. Change is an inevitable reality, and focusing on maintaining high-quality level services to our customers as well as an increasing trend in demand for healthy eating, it has been key for the hotel to adopt healthy eating.
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In the hotel industry, change in diet aligns with the questions; will the customers accept the new meals/menu. If we change to healthy eating, less fat and processed food to more organically grown food, what will be the response, and finally what would the response on introducing fewer sugar bites and drinks? With the increasing demand for healthy eating due to problems such as diabetes, high blood pressure, obesity, the hotel applies the probability of success in introducing the new menu to the customers. To remain relevant to the customers as well as ensuring quality food and services, the change process demands a decision to be made based on the market trend and demand for a healthy diet as well as customers’ requests and market trends. Based on customer demands, health campaigns against fatty and surgery food as well as the market trend in favor of fresh products, there are high chances the proposed change would be successful for both the hotel business.
The ability to understand the market trend and the likelihood of the outcomes remain integral to the survival of the hotel industry. By estimating the chances of change in the hotel industry, it gives the management time to plan for the change process as well as drawing all related players in implementing the change. Additionally, by estimating the chances of the event changing, it gives the management a chance to understand the overall market trend and in turn enable the business entity to remain competitive. Finally, understanding the estimates allows for future planning and also towards decision making based on facts, business performance, and customer and market demands. Probability is an inevitable knowledge that is required to make decisions that may, in turn, affect the business positively and or negatively.
References
Haugaard, P., & Lähteenmäki, L. (2017). Consumer satisfaction with real life meal experiences: An interview study. Journal of Foodservice Business Research , 20 (4), 371–393.
Pappanastos, E., & Wheatley, R. (2019). Using Simulation to Estimate Probabilities. International Journal of the Academic Business World , 13 (1), 11–15.
