Russia-Ukraine crisis cannot be traced back to a single cause; several factors have contributed to the bitter-sour relationship between the two countries that were formerly great allies. This paper focuses on the reasons for the crisis in the first part; the second part will focus on relevant international agreements regarding the conflict. The third part of the paper will focus on all the relevant countries in the conflict, and the rest of the parts will be to analyze it from a realistic and liberal perspective and the prospects regarding the conflict.
Cause of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
As said above the conflict between Russia and Ukraine cannot be traced back to a single source; this part will look into all the contributing factors to the conflict. The first factor can be said to be the 2008 crisis war between Russia and Georgia; the Russo-Georgian war was the genesis of the conflict because during the war Russia claimed that Ukraine supported Georgia by selling arms to them (Trenin, 2014). Russia also claimed that Ukraine army was helping the Georgia forces; Ukraine, however, denied these allegations and stated that they had only sold the arms to Georgia even before the war ensued as an agreement they had with Georgia.
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The second conflicting point was Ukraine’s prospect to join North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Russia strongly opposed Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO; Russians saw that they had an obligation to the Russian residents in Ukraine as they saw that Ukraine joining NATO will make them lose their integrity (Trukina, 2015). The third conflict that ensued was also the 2009 dispute on natural gas prices; during this time, the exports of Russian gas were shut. Russia viewed Ukraine as an aggressive and greedy country that wanted to join Russian enemies to exploit cheap Russian gas. As though not enough, Ukraine immediately joined forces with the European Union to create a master plan that modernized the natural gas infrastructure between EU and Ukraine.
An incident in the Russian coast of Azov Sea (a region considered internal waters for both Russia and Ukraine) on the July of 2013 where a Russian Coast Guard patrol boat collided with a Ukrainian fishing vessel resulting in the death of four fishermen. The Russian authority detained one of the surviving fishermen and charged him with poaching. The Ukraine government were not happy about this and claimed that the Russian government did not have the jurisdiction to prosecute the detained Ukraine citizen. By the August 2013, the Russian customs service stopped all goods coming from Ukraine from entering into Russia as a step to try and stop Ukraine from signing a treaty with the European Union. However, Ukraine went ahead to sign an agreement with the European Union.
The 2014 Crimean crisis can be seen as the major contributing factor for the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Russia wanted to make Crimea off limits to the new post-Yanukovych rule the new president of Ukraine. The Russian Special Forces physically insulated the peninsula from the mainland neutralizing pro-Ukrainian citizens and helping the Crimea’s pro-Russian citizens to take control of the local government, parliament and the law enforcement agencies. The Russian government also encouraged them to carry out a referendum to detach themselves from Ukraine and join the Russian Union. Crimea held their referendum on March 16, 2014, and overwhelmingly endorsed joining the Russian Union. Two days later, a treaty was signed in Moscow to incorporate Crimea and the city of Sevastopol into Russia.
Relevant international agreements
Following the crisis, United Nations Security Council intervened by adopting various resolutions. The first Security Council meeting regarding the crisis was held on 28 February 2014 and was called by the permanent representative of Ukraine. The general assembly adopted a resolution on Territorial integrity of Ukraine; it reaffirmed the paramount importance of the Charter of the United Nations in promoting the rule of law among nations. It also recalled the obligations of all state under Article 2 of the Charter to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity and political independence of any state. It also advocated for the settlement of international disputes by peaceful means. The Security Council noted that the referendum held in Crimea was not authorized by Ukraine and refused to accept the results of the referendum.
The second resolution was adopted on 21 July 2014, and it deplored the downing of a civilian aircraft on an international flight; the Malaysian Air flight MH17 that resulted in the death of 298 passengers and crew. It also called for an independent investigation into the incident in accordance with the civil aviation guidelines. The council also demanded that the armed groups in control of the crash to refrain from actions that could compromise the integrity of the crash site. It also demanded that all military activities be ceased immediately to allow for secure and safety of international investigations.
The final resolution was adopted 17 February 2015, and it brought a package of measures for the implementation of Minsk Agreements. It called for an immediate and comprehensive cease-fire in Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. It also called for the withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides by equal distances so as to create a security zone of at least 50 km from each side. It also launched a dialogue between the two states and ensured pardon and amnesty to persons responsible for the events that took place in Donetsk.
Most relevant countries in the conflict
There are many countries involved in this crisis; first, the countries in the European Union led to the conflict due to its competition with Russia on who will convince Georgia and Ukraine to join them. The European Union through the Eastern Partnership program launched in 2009 wanted to associate Ukraine and five other former Soviet states politically and economically with the European Union. The Russian Federation on its part tried to attract these states by introducing the Eurasian Economic Treaty that was signed in May 2014.
The United States, on the other hand, supported pro-western democratic movements; Ukraine was a democratic state and the United States saw that if it became part of the Russian sphere of influence, this would be changed. They began working and helping the pro-western opposition to win over and hold power in Kiev; they openly encouraged them in their efforts.
The United States immediately reversed the twenty-five-year-old trend towards expanding contacts with Russia. Russia was immediately expelled from the G8 group of leading industrialized states remaining with G8. The European Union also downgraded its relationship with Russia and NATO froze its cooperation with Moscow. Western states also started suspending bilateral trade with Putin as well as imposing sanctions against Russian officials in an attempt to hurt Russia so much to the extent of backing down. The United States and NATO troops were also deployed; NATO ballistic missile defenses were also installed in Europe targeting Russian nuclear forces.
Realistic and liberal view on the conflict
From a realistic approach, Russia is taking advantage of its financial muscle over Ukraine; Ukraine is an independent and sovereign state that can enter into an agreement with any nation it wishes. It also acts like a bully by entering into Ukrainian territory and influencing Crimea to remove itself from Ukraine and goes ahead to sign a treaty with it even before United Nation has recognized it as an independent state.From a liberal perspective, issues of security are to be addressed collectively by the community of nations. Negotiations and collaboration are preferred methods to solve conflicts. The United States and the European Union have employed this form of tactic by using tactics such as economic sanctions instead of the military approach.
Future prospects of the conflict
If the conflict is not sorted out, it can lead to another world war since alliances have started to develop gradually. The first alliance is between the NATO the European Union and Ukraine and the second faction is between the Russians the Chinese and part of the Arabic people. These subdivisions will spur a worldwide rivalry and chaos that will be hard to solve. It is better for the conflict to be sorted while we still can.
References
Götz, E. (2016). Russia, the West, and the Ukraine crisis: Three contending perspectives. Contemporary Politics, 22 (3), 249-266. doi:10.1080/13569775.2016.1201313
Motyl. A. (2015). The Surrealism of Realism: Misreading the War in Ukraine. Retrieved November 25, 2016, from http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/surrealism-realism-misreading-war-ukraine
Spencer, C. (2016). Ukraine Crisis: The Theories Involved · Guardian Liberty Voice. Retrieved November 25, 2016, from http://guardianlv.com/2014/03/ukraine-crisis-the-theories-involved/
Trenin, D. (2014). The Ukraine Crisis and the Resumption of Great Power Rivalry, 1-38. doi: 10.185749780814785003.003.0015
Turkina, E. (2015). Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Value-Based and Generational Perspective. Studies in Ethnicity and Nationalism, 15 (1), 185-197. doi:10.1111/sena.12134
