The Saudi Arabian government has announced one of the most ambitious projects in the country’s history – a project to construct 16 nuclear power reactors at the cost of $112 billion by 2032. While such a plan is ambitious and desirous, it is very unlikely that it would be completed by the deadline. The official explanations for this strategy are included in a royal decree from 2010 that states that “The development of atomic energy is vital to address the nation’s growing needs for energy to produce desalinated water, generate electricity, and reduce the level of dependence on hydrocarbon resources” ( Teitelbaum, 2013; Mansouri and Ghoniem, 2017 ). Even though such countries as Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain have abandoned or suspended their nuclear plans mostly because of the incident at the Fukushima nuclear plant, Saudi Arabia seeks to expand its nuclear plan. The country has demonstrated a commitment to acquiring and expanding its nuclear power ( Joskow and Parsons, 2012 ). In fact, in 2013, one of the government’s spokesmen announced a plan to call for opening bids for the initial project, with the first reactor meant to be built by 2022. As expected of any major project, there are considerable financial challenges involved in this one, with the finance ministry wary of the project’s need for “great capital outlays and years of subsidies.” This paper analyses the Saudi Arabian proposed nuclear program, focusing on its viability, competitiveness, and environmental implications. The plan can be termed as a viable one because it would allow Saudi Arabia to further diversify its sources of energy. Given that the Saudi Kingdom has always almost entirely relied on oil exports, burning oil to produce electricity meant for domestic consumption is a significant opportunity cost ( Ahmad and Ramana, 2014 ). Oil prices have been rising for the past two decades the Kingdom needs to seek an alternative. Additionally, there have been concerns regarding the domestic rate of consumption of oil, with several studies claiming that such a rate would negatively affect Saudi’s energy export revenues in the long term. To increase the amount of oil available for export, a viable solution would be to develop non-hydrocarbon energy sources in the country. The government opts to pursue a nuclear energy program because this source generates considerably high amounts of energy which would be used domestically. Also, the government has the resources to make this plan successful. As expected, taking on such a plan would make the country incur significant costs. From a short-term perspective, it can be projected that the plan is likely to slightly destabilize the country’s economy during the first fifteen years of its implementation of the plan ( Ahmad and Ramana, 2014 ). The infrastructure required to set up nuclear plants as well as the skilled personnel needed is very expensive; meaning, the country will have to channel some resources from other sectors of the economy in order to fund the project. Additionally, this plan would also have significant short-term implications for natural gas export. Today, Saudi Arabia does not export or import natural gas ( Demirbas et al., 2016 ). Given that one of the reasons for the nuclear program is to increase the domestic output of this commodity, there would need to be extra investment in the production of natural gas. The exported gas would have to be in liquefied (LNG) state, thereby causing the government to incur additional costs for developing the required infrastructure, liquefaction, and shipping. From a long-term perspective, the plan would be most beneficial to the Kingdom because the phase of the initial investment would have passed for most of the elements of the program. Most of the costs the government would be likely to incur after the project are complete would be maintenance-related ( Ahmad and Ramana, 2014; Demirbas et al., 2017 ). Also, since nuclear plants are expected to have the capacity to generate a sufficient amount of energy for domestic consumption, the Kingdom would earn a lot of revenue from the export of oil and natural gas. In Saudi Arabia, nuclear energy is not yet cost-competitive with other fossil fuels, mainly because it has not yet been fully developed in the Kingdom. In the short run, the situation is likely to remain this way as natural gas and oil continue to be the major sources of energy in the Kingdom ( Ramana and Main, 2016 ). Currently, the potential yields of small modular reactors are still unclear, making nuclear energy less competitive with the other fossil fuels available in the country. Nuclear energy is only still strong in the isolated market with a very low preference from the public. However, in the long run, Saudi Arabia is expected to experience the benefits of nuclear energy over other fossil fuels. For instance, nuclear energy continues to be “part of the solution” to climate change even though public acceptance is still a challenge in Saudi Arabia. Nuclear energy tends to be a cheap option as compared to natural gas and oil and, with a developed system; it would be able to compete successfully. Nuclear energy is one of the lowest standardized cost options for power not only in Saudi Arabia but also throughout the Middle East ( Ramana and Main, 2016 ). In Saudi Arabia, nuclear energy has the potential to be more competitive as compared to other fossil fuels because of the country’s low labor costs, economies of scale, and past experience in building reactors. As soon as production starts at the projected plants, nuclear energy will be as competitive as other fossil fuels. The current and projected technological advancements in nuclear energy production would make this source of energy more competitive than natural gas and oil in the next two decades. Software advancements, for example, will be vital in distribution and transmission. It is expected that in the future, the perception regarding the distribution and transmission of power will change and this would represent a shift into an era of peer-to-peer low-carbon generation ( Ramana and Main, 2016 ). While such a shift would be beneficial even for the other fossil fuels, these advancements would serve to eliminate some of the major concerns regarding the adoption of nuclear energy in the country. As is typical of any nuclear program, the Saudi Arabian plan presents serious environmental implications, not only to the Kingdom but also to neighboring nations.
Construction Phase Impacts
It is impossible for there to be an emission of radioactive substances into the air during this stage because there would not be any radio-active nuclear fuel burning at the site. At this point, the nuclear plants are not functional and, therefore, there are no threats associated with the emission of radio-active substances ( Dincer and Rosen, 2012 ). The environmental impacts of the plan during this stage are mostly at a national level, with a very low risk of spreading to neighboring countries. During the construction phase, it is expected that the earthwork and the traffic at the site as well as the other minor operations will produce dust. Regardless, the impact of this dust will be felt mostly on the construction site since the sources would be situated at low elevation levels. The only source of widespread dust would be rock crushing and the transportation and commuter traffic to and from the construction sites.
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Production Phase Impacts
It is very unlikely that there would be significant amounts of radio-active emissions into the air coming from nuclear plants. The government intends to use the latest and most effective technology meant to prevent these emissions. Any emissions coming from these plants are expected to be short-lived and ineffective to animal and plant life ( Dincer and Rosen, 2012 ). For this program, the gaseous radio-active substances would be collected, filtered, and delayed to reduce the radioactivity. The radioactive substances would then be effectively diluted in the air in a regulated manner in order to remain below the set limits. As a result, it I expected that there would only be traces of radioactive substances accumulating around the power plants. Such substances can easily be detected using sensitive measurement methods. However, it is important to note that there is a possibility of accidents, whereby the emission of radio-active substances would be significant enough to affect animal and plant life. Depending on the nature of the accident, the impact of radioactive substance emission would be felt either within a few miles or over a larger expanse. If the accident is severe, then this impact would spread to neighboring countries.
Conclusions
From the discussion, it is clear that the plan is executable; even though it would not be completed in time, and that it would help the country in its quest for diversification of energy sources. The program will be very expensive with significant economic implications for the country. Also, it has been found that nuclear energy is less competitive as compared to other fossil fuels available in Saudi Arabia. This is because the technology is not yet fully developed in the country and it has not earned sufficient public acceptance. However, as the program progresses, it is expected that nuclear energy would be as competitive as other fossil fuels. The paper categorizes the environmental implications of the program on the country and its surroundings into two – construction phase impacts and production phase impacts. Overall, the environmental effects of the nuclear program are likely to be experienced inside Saudi Arabia alone. However, in the event of a major accident or disaster, the environmental effects can also be felt in neighboring countries.
References
Dincer, I., & Rosen, M. A. (2012). Energy: energy, environment and sustainable development . Newnes.
Ahmad, A., & Ramana, M. V. (2014). Too costly to matter: Economics of nuclear power for Saudi Arabia. Energy , 69 , 682-694.
Teitelbaum, J. (2013). Saudi Arabia and the new strategic landscape : Hoover Press.
Demirbas, A., Hashem, A. A., & Bakhsh, A. A. (2017). The cost analysis of electric power generation in Saudi Arabia: Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy , 12 (6), 591-596.
Demirbas, A., Alsulami, H., & Nizami, A. S. (2016). The natural gas potential of Saudi Arabia: Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects , 38 (18), 2635-2642.
Ramana, M. V., & Mian, Z. (2016). Scrambling to sell a nuclear Middle: East Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists , 72 (1), 39-43
Joskow, P. L., & Parsons, J. E. (2012). The future of nuclear power after Fukushima.
Mansouri, N. Y., & Ghoniem, A. F. (2017). Does nuclear desalination make sense for Saudi Arabia? Desalination , 406 , 37-43.
