The emergence of the First World War a hundred years ago still commands the attention as many questions are raised as to how a civilized world descended into an armed conflict. Historians and the general public are trying to piece together the pieces that could explain the source of the conflict. A question that has remained unanswered since then is why the leaders of the time could not rise up against their differences to prevent a conflict of such a magnitude. The reasons that led to the development of the armed conflict of such a magnitude are yet to know if ever 1 . Some of the historical literature that explains the origins of the war concentrates more on the triggers and the event that led to the armed struggles by the allied countries. The failing of the men in 1914, wrong judgment and flaws led to the outbreak of the conflict that consumed the entire world like wildfire.
The July Crisis can be understood from the global perspective by trying to piece together the pieces that led to the events of July 1914. The decisions made by the leaders during that time contributed significantly to the development of the crisis. European nations feared that a major war would be inevitable in Europe. Years before the war were characterized by fear, tension, and suspicion among nations. There was also widespread arms race throughout Europe 2 . There were, however, significant efforts by the great powers to stop the occurrence of a large scale war few years to the start of the First World War.
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An international crisis was settled through peace conferences and mediation by the great powers but the smaller nations engaged each other in armed conflict. An avoided war was a common practice by the great powers and forms the basis for understanding the origin of the First World War which was frequently anticipated yet avoided. Most countries in Europe formed alliances that sustained peace and deterred any armed conflicts. Such formations restrained war and in the actual sense were not the major cause of the war. During the July crisis, some of the powers tried to solve the crisis using diplomatic means 3 .
On June 28, 1914, news broke out that the Archduke Franz Ferdinand the future leader of Austria was assassinated in Sarajevo. The summer had begun much better than the previous years where there were armed conflicts between countries in Europe. People were hopeful of a lull and also a peaceful year that would compensate for the misfortunes experiences in earlier years. The world war required a trigger that set in motion a chain of events that contributed to the declaration of war by countries against each other. Archduke was visiting Bosnia one of the territories he was to inherit but the Balkans had something else to offer 4 . The region had known no peace for a significant period. the death of Sarajevo worsened the situation as it threw the disturbed region into disarray leading to confusion setting the tone that ignited the first world war.
The Archduke was visiting Bosnia Herzegovina which was under Austria Hungary from 1878. The territory was annexed in 1908. The high profile meeting was to showcase the commitment to the volatile province that had different ethnic groups. Efforts were put in place since 1908 to establish an administration which was backed by the locals. However, such initiatives did not gain meaningful ground as the territory was ethnically divided and tribal politics was dominant throughout the province. In 1909 the province proclaimed its constitution that was liberal and provided for minority rights which were a rare case elsewhere in the Balkans. The constitution also reduced the powers of the provincial parliament. The parliament was elected through an electoral college that included religious and ethnic groups. The parliament was also composed of twenty members who were elected from religious groups 5 .
The administration of the province was done by the finance minister whereas day to day running was vested on the military commander with the assistance of a civil servant who was appointed by the emperor and was responsible for overseeing the civilian department. The imperial context was complex and the Serbs who were nearly half of the inhabitants were hostile had turn out to be a pan-Serb nationalist. The Serbs were in particular against the administration and in 1912 they torpedoed the programs that were initiated by the governor. The rest of the population in the province consisted of Catholic Croats as well as Muslim Bosnians 6 .
The decision by Potiorek to invite Archduke as a sign of resolve and to showcase the loyal elements was also risky. The gesture was appreciated but the secret police had warned against such a visit and in .particular scheduling it on June 28 which was on a Sunday. The day marked the anniversary of the battle of Kosovo fought in 1389. The Serb kingdom was defeated in the battle by the Ottomans and the Turkish Sultan Murad was also assassinated by a Serbian knight after the battle. The day had an importance to the Serbians and it was central to the revival of the nationalist movement by the Serbians. The Archduke was perceived as a roadblock to achieving the Yugoslavia dream and therefore the visit was resented by Bosnia Serbs. The date was also significant given that it was the 525 th anniversary 7 .
The visit by the Archduke further raised concerns given that the province was undergoing political upheavals just like Dalmatia and Croatia. The leaders in Croatia ruled with an iron fist and were targets for assassination. The acts of violence set the tone for the Sarajevo plot. There was also a sudden increase in the number of politically motivated murders. The Archduke and Archduchess were assassinated in Sarajevo by Bosnian Serbs. The assassination was a trigger to armed conflict in a continent that bedeviled with international tension. The war, however, was not inevitable. Some of the statesmen were busy trying to stop the escalation of the crisis through mediation 8 . Other leaders strived to ensure that war broke out and was willing to risk the escalation of the conflict to other nations.
The news of the death of the heir apparent spread like wildfire. A small group led by a Bosnian Serb had planned and successfully assassinated the Archduke and the Archduchess. The murder of the two led to a widespread outrage. The Archduke became a victim of violent conspiracy following the radicalization of youths by Serbian nationalists. It was also evident that organizations that were anti-Austria-Hungary had emerged following its success in the Balkan wars fought in 1912 and 1913. The country had nearly doubled its territory in addition to increasing population. The government was interested in uniting more Serbians who lived in other territories like Croatia, Bosnia, and Vojvodina which were annexed by the country in 1908 9 .
The assassination of the heir apparent was immediately taken to be a Serbian provocation yet there was no evidence to show the involvement of the Serbians in the plot. The plot to kill the Archdukes was not sanctioned by the Serbian government. The assassination, however, led to an armed conflict between Austria-Hungary and Serbia 10 . The heir apparent was against armed conflict and even supported the calls for more rights to the minority groups. Such calls made him more of a target since some of the people feared that he will allow the minorities to the dual monarchy allowing them to have more say in their own affairs. The Hungarians wanted to protect their status as an influential minority group in the empire. The Serbians were also fearful that the rein of the Archduke could prevent their future unification. The Serbians were of the opinion that Ferdinand was a threat to Serbia because he could use his capacity as a leader to prevent the union of the Serbians through some reforms which were against their interest 11 .
Several attempts were made to assassinate Ferdinand during the visit wherein the first incident a bomb was thrown into the car but it bounced off and exploded on the ground. In another incident, the assassin tried but did not succeed. The security team insisted on canceling the trip but Ferdinand told them, that the trip must go on as planned. A scheduled visit to the museum was however canceled and the team decided to take a different route altogether. The decision to follow another route was not communicated appropriately as the driver in the lead car maintained the same route. Upon realizing that another route was to be used he had to reverse and this forced the Archduke to stop at a point where the assassin was strategically located. The assassin shot at Ferdinand and the wife opened a new chapter in the world as it triggered the First World War.
Reactions to the Assassination of Ferdinand
The assassination of Ferdinand at 11 am in Sarajevo led to the public outcry where the assassin was roughed up by the crowd who beat him to death 12 . The Guardian newspaper reported the different reactions that were received from leaders across Europe. The leaders mourned a visionary leader and used the platform to demand immediate actions to be taken against the government. The assassination led to the consternation throughout the continent as leaders took different initiatives ranging from mourning and regrets for the country. The response in Germany was different as the leader mourned Ferdinand who he had just seen a few weeks earlier. The country reacted with outrage. The first war between Austria Hungary and Serbia was planned in Vienna following the assassination. German support was secured and it took part in the planning for the war. Other European powers like France, Britain, Russia, and Italy joined latter after all the decisions had been made and ultimatums issued. The planning was done secretly and most of the statements were kept in the dark deliberately. However, a reaction was expected following the assassination and some of them got wind about the planned war with Serbia. The ultimatum that was issued later was therefore not a complete surprise.
Firm demands were made on the Serbians and the allies did not react until later against the dual alliance of the Germans and the Austria-Hungarian. Some of the nations had seen an opportunity of staging a war with Serbia with Austria and Germany regretting not having dealt with Serbia decisively in 1909. Austria Chief of General Staff declared war on Serbia one day after the assassination citing that the country was behind the death. The foreign minister was, however, was against mobilization against Serbia and instead felt that the strong demands should be made against Serbia. The two however agreed that they had an opportunity to address the Serbian question. It was necessary to establish the reaction of Germany towards a move against Serbia. A meeting with the ambassador to Germany in Vienna was scheduled. He was against a war but reported back to the Foreign Office in Berlin. Kaiser Wilhelm reacted by stating that Austria should deal with the matter as it pleases.
Austria-Hungary dispatched an envoy on 5 th July to Berlin with the predicament following the assassination and the provocation by Serbia. The envoy asked the German allies for their opinion on the future plans. The political decision-makers and the military greeted the possibility of a crisis favorably. Austria was assured of German support in the conflict even if it could evolve to be a European war. German decision to support Austria in the war and its blank cheque was a significant step towards a European war.
Germans wanted to test their strength and believed that an outbreak war will see the Triple Alliance partners prevail. They believed that the Entente powers will be invincible in the long run. The Germans wanted to reduce the growing power of the Russians by ensuring that they do not engage in infrastructural and military development that would make it difficult to wage a war in future. The Country felt that in such a situation it will be powerless as it will be surrounded by hostile powers. The growing power of Russia was of significant importance to the war as the Germans felt that the Russians must be defeated by any means through military or diplomacy. Austria also knew that the Russians would support the Serbians and it was worth staging a war at the moment rather than allowing the country to continue gaining power which could make it difficult to defeat in the future. A war with Russia was unavoidable in the long run and it was determined that Austria would get in advance of its foes to stop any developments which would be difficult to achieve in the future. There was, therefore, an urgency to fight a preventive war against the Russians and to reckon with the Serbians.
A long meeting was held and it was decided that a war with Serbia must be provoked through an ultimatum to make it seem like Vienna was acting moderately instead of an outright declaration of war with Serbia. All the attendants of the meeting agree with the mood apart from the Hungarian Prime Minister. The ultimatum was to be given in such a way that the Serbians will outright decline the terms. It was also agreed that it will be issued when the French president board the ship from Russia as the country will not be having effective leadership. The ultimatum was also delayed to ensure that other powers do not suspect military action against Serbia. It was also delayed to give the soldiers an opportunity to attend to the annual harvest as the country had to rely on the harvest for the entire year.
A meeting was held on July 14 where it was agreed that a forty-eight-hour ultimatum will be granted to the Serbians. Vienna and Berlin were not interested in a European war but they were willing to risk it. Austria-Hungary was losing its prestige and therefore it was preferable to engage in an armed conflict rather than wait for a terror that never ends. Germany, for example, advocated for a war as soon as possible and believed that it had high chances of winning such conflicts. According to the military, Russia could easily be defeated at the moment but it will be too strong in future to wage any war against.
The ultimatum was finally presented to the Serbians on July 23. The other powers had to .work together to ensure that they waged the war if it occurred. Any hopes of an amicable solution were dashed at 6 pm when a forty-eight-hour ultimatum was delivered. The timing was well planned as it inconvenienced France and Russia. The ultimatum insisted that the Serbian government supported subversive movements which were against the annexation of Bosnia. The ultimatum required that Serbia must give in to the demands of annexing Bosnia and also issue an apology in the press. Other ultimatums included the suppression of publications that can generate hatred as well as contempt. The Serbs agreed to most of the demands but Vienna was interested in a war, not reconciliation. The Entente and the allies were interested in knowing the side in which Britain was supporting. Britain did not support any side in the initial stages until the end of July. Germany violated Belgium and it is then that the British Foreign secretary decided to support the Entente. It was after Britain supported the entente that Germany tried to bring reconciliation but such efforts came in too late. Similarly, they were not supported by the military and Austria had already declared war on Serbia on July 28. The move culminated in the mobilization and declaration of war by the major powers leading to a war that was not anticipated.
The First World War ended on June 28, 1919, when the treaty of Versailles was signed five years since the trigger that started the war happened. Germany was blamed for the armed struggle and was forced to pay heavy penalties where it accepted responsibility for the damages as well as losses incurred by the allies. The negotiation sidelined Germany and assigned it new boundaries. Germany was to pay the liabilities under the young plan and the Dawes plan. The treaty also created the League of Nations where Germany was not a member for the next seven years. France and Belgium implemented the treaty and occupied the territories that were assigned to them. There was, however, pressure from England and America for the two countries to scale down their efforts. Several changes were made to the treaty until the 1930s when most of the provisions were violated or changes.
Bibliography
"First World War: Reports Of The Assassination Of Archduke Franz Ferdinand In Sarajevo". 2018. The Guardian . https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/08/first-world-war-franz-ferdinand-sarajevo.
MacMillan, Margaret. 2013. The War That Ended Peace: The Road To 1914 . New York: Random House.
Mombauer, Annika. 2017. "July Crisis 1914 | International Encyclopedia Of The First World War (WW1)". Encyclopedia.1914-1918-Online.Net . https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/july_crisis_1914.
Otte., T.G. 2014. July Crisis: The World's Descent Into War, Summer 1914 . Cambridge University Press.
Ponting, Clive. 2003. Thirteen Days: The Road To The First World War . Swansea: Pimlico.
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6 (Otte. 2014)
7 (Otte. 2014)
8 (MacMillan 2013)
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10 (Ponting 2003)
11 (Otte. 2014).
12 ("First World War: Reports Of The Assassination Of Archduke Franz Ferdinand In Sarajevo" 2018)
