The upcoming United States (U.S) election is deemed to be one of the toughest. This is mainly because each candidate has had their fair share of controversies. On the one hand , Hillary Clinton is a Democrat, while on the other, Donald Trump will represent the Republicans. Amid pressing domestic and foreign issues that the country needs to address, the positions of the two candidates have varied. Therefore, the electorate will have a hard choice deciding on who best addresses their concerns. Consequently, the 2016 elections are highly likely to cause a swing state. Against this backdrop, Table 1 below represents the possible swing states, the number of electoral votes each possesses, and the predicted winner.
Table 1: 2016 Election Swing States, Electoral Votes, and Predicted Winner
| No. | State | Electoral V otes | Predicted Winner |
| Iowa | 6 | Hillary | |
| Nevada | 6 | Trump | |
| Colorado | 9 | Hillary | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | Hillary | |
| Virginia | 13 | Trump | |
| North Carolina | 15 | Trump | |
| Michigan | 16 | Hillary | |
| Ohio | 18 | Hillary |
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Iowa : T he State in recent years has shown a preference for Democrats . For instance, i n the last two elections, the State has voted for Democratic candidates
Nevada : This is a S outhern State that has historically been Republican . Trump ’s popularity in the State has been seen as a result of his business interests in the region .
Colorado: R ecent polls show the increased popularity of Hillary in the State . This is because Republican die-hard representatives in Colorado exude dislike and non-preference to Trump hence reducing his reduced popularity . Further, in the past five elections , Colorado has preferred a Democratic presidential candidate .
Wisconsin : This is a State with a high population of minority groups such as Indians . As a result, the hatred towards Trump's rhetoric remarks ha s been evident . Recent poll s undertaken by Jennings & Wlezien, (2016) show that Hillary has been in the lead since the start of 2016 . As a swing State, its previous preference has been distinctive with instances of preference for both republican and democrat candidates .
Virginia : the State has been a Trump stronghold since the commencement of the electoral campaigns . In recent years, Virginia has been on the Republican side and as a result in the two p revious elections the state has shown the preference for Republican candidates .
North Carolina : Republican candidates have been reliant on the State for votes in the past five elections . Recent polls show preference to the Republican candidates , and as a result, Trump has been on the leading preliminary votes in the State .
Michigan: This is a strong hold for the Democratic candidate especially in the wake of the Water scandal in the region . Public disillusionment has been evident regarding the Republican candidates . Despite the past preference to Republican candidates, preliminary votes show a general preference for Hillary .
Ohio : viewed as the State to make or break the candidates, recent news polls show a 70% lead by Hillary . Despite being a 50-50 State, Hillary has been enjoying increased preference in the preliminary votes .
Therefore, based on the above analysis, Clinton is likely to defeat Trump. According to FiveThirtyEight (2016), Clinton will garner 335.7 against Trump’s 201.0 . Their chances of winning have also been predicted at 84.6% and 15.3% respectively. However , there are various positive and negative implications of Clinton’s leadership . According to various pundits, it is worthy to note that the positive impacts will first emanate from her economic policies. Hillary's policies are in line with President Obama’s policies that have been pivotal towards revamping the US economy after the global recession (Erikson, 2016). Most importantly, her economic policies on investing in the middle-income population will pave the way to an economy that is based on the middle-income earners who form the largest proportion of taxpayers to the government. On the other hand, Hillary is bound to continue the good trade and political relations that the US has had with China and its western allies. Through the good trade and political ties , further bilateral and multilateral relations are bound to prevail. On the other hand, Trump exudes a volatile individual whose s tatements can negatively affect the good relations that the US has been enjoying.
However, despite the positive implications of Hilary ’s prospect as the future president, it is critical to examine records of her mis conduct in the various offices held. Of utmost importance ha ve been her incriminating emails , as well as her involvement in the Benghazi scandal. The numerous scandals portray a president whose conduct is questionable. These shortcomings may impact on her future trustworth iness in the various alliances and agreements that she will have to form with different countries . In conclusion, despite indications that Clinton is the potential next U.S president, her position is deemed to have both positive and negative impacts on America.
References
Erikson, R. S. (2016). Congressional Elections in Presidential Years: Presidential Coattails and Strategic Voting. Legislative Studies Quarterly 41 (3), 551-574. doi: 10.1111/lsq.12127
FiveThirtyEight (2016). 2016 Election Forecast: Who will win the presidency? Retrieved from http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Jennings, W., & Wlezien, C. (2016). The timeline of elections: A comparative perspective. American Journal of Political Science , 60 (1), 219-233. doi: 10.1111/ajps.12189
