The Blackburn vs. Bredesen senatorial contest occupies a central focus to the Democrats and the Republicans alike. This and other senatorial election across the country will determine the majority party in the Senate which will have a direct impact on the ability of the respective parties to debate bills and more importantly Trump’s administration’s ability to pass important decisions. If Republicans win a majority seat, then they will have control and ability to pass most of their bills. However, the win does not imply an easy pass of bills as has been seen in the history where the Republicans holding the majority have had to go through hardships to get their bills to pass due to ideological affiliations rather than party orientation mentality. This paper tracks important markers in the Tennessee midterm elections and party campaigns from September to election date; Tennessee is important, as it would mark the election of a woman senator for the first time in its history.
September 7, 2018
The September 7, 2018 news released by Daily Kos places the Democrat candidate Bredesen ahead of his competitor Blackburn. The poll, released by Marist, places Bredesen ahead with 48% as Blackburn follows with 46%. The opinion poll also points out that 5% of the participants in the opinion poll are undecided on which side they would support. Another 9% insinuated that they would change their mind on the voting date (Daily Kos 2018). This early lead is an opportunity for the Democrats to overturn the current Republican leadership in the Senate where Republicans have a lead of 51 against democrat’s 49 seats. The Democrat candidate has high support from his party members, an outstanding 97%, while Blackburn has low support, probably 0 % except for president Trump's endorsement (Daily Kos 2018) this is likely to influence the direction of the campaign and election result. The general expectation is that the Republican candidate will fail due to low support from her party. It cannot be determined, as early as now, where the undecided percentage and those suggesting a likelihood of changing their decision on the ballot will vote to influence the election. The undecided voters have the potential to alter the result in ways that may be a mockery on the opinion poll either by influencing other voters or by casting their votes to one direction.
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The Democratic Party and its candidate can capitalize on the power of the opinion poll ratings as a tool to drive their candidate to victory. By confirming that Bredesen is leading, the opinion poll can be used to influence the decision of the undecided voters and those aligned with the Republican candidate to vote for the democratic candidate. However, it can only be possible if the Democratic Party understands that people do not like to be associated with the losing side and capitalize this to their advantage (Stempe & Guido 2014). The position of the current Republican candidate holding the senatorial seat, his lashes towards president Trump, and his refusal to run for a third term, which suggests party disunity are opportunities that the Republican candidate can use in influencing the voters' opinion (Daily Kos 2018).
September 17, 2018
The CNN reports released of Sept. 17, 2018, places the Democratic Party ahead of the Republican candidate. Victory seems to be assured for the party. It provides details to the contest, which suggests that Bredesen is improving in his control of the voters’ decision as Blackburn is losing some of the voters. According to Cillizza (2018), Tennessee’s senatorial elections play a pivotal role in determining the party that will control the Senate. There is a possibility of a tie. In case the Senate is constituted of equal party representation, vice president Pence will have to be the one breaking the tie; this does not indicate that Republicans will lead and control the Senate; other factors will influence the senators' direction of the vote (Cillizza 2018). This scenario makes the Tennessee midterm elections an important one given its likelihood to generate a tie in the Senate. The contest is not among equals, Republicans are ahead of the Democrats, given that Republicans are holding the seat currently and that Trump had won the seat by 26 points in Tennessee as compared to other places such as Texas where he led by 6 points (Cillizza 2018). It can be noted that the Republicans are advantaged in Tennessee, but this does not seem to be the case according to the opinion polls. Thus, the Republican Party can easily win in Tennessee although the opinion polls submitted by CNN places the Democrat candidate, Bredesen ahead of the Republican candidate, Blackburn at 50% and 45% respectively (Cillizza 2018). In the Daily Koss’s opinion poll, Bredesen was leading with 48%, but now he has 50%, which is an increase of 2%. This is very significant in shaping the voting patterns. Blackburn, on the other hand, has lost 1 %. If such a win and loss trend is maintained throughout the race, the Republicans will lose the seat, and this will be a blow to Trump’s administration.
More is involved in the contest, other than party lines; the two candidates have to fight alongside personality, ideology, and wealth. The former governor and now turned senatorial hopeful, Bredesen has both influences having served in the governorship between 2002 and 2008. In addition, the public holds him in high esteem (Daily Kos 2018). Besides, he has wealth to his side, which he has already flanked by funding his campaign, $3.5 million (Cillizza 2018). The Republicans will have to counteract this strength using all strategies possible to win and retain the senatorial seat. It is possible, looking at the present state, that Bredesen will win the senatorial seat and put the Democrats on a vantage point to control the Senate.
Oct. 12, 2018
The New York Times report on October 12 introduces the element of debate into this analysis. The Knoxville debate is a landmark in the race for the senatorial seat as it brought the two opponents on one platform where they have face confrontation defending their views. The debate was a demonstration of intellectual might, principles, and true leadership. The candidates presented a contrasting view of each other when asked a basic question on how they would respond to the government if the opponent were to win. While Bredesen was composed and suggested goodwill to the governance of Blackburn, the latter did not view him so. Instead, she pursued a course of rebuke where she condemned such an idea as of cooperating with Bredesen (Meacham 2018). I perceive this to be a show of strength. While Blackburn could not win in the opinion polls, she took on the podium to show her might and ability to govern and make the tough decisions.
The most striking element that distinguishes both ideologists was Blackburn’s consideration of the Democrats as liberals and the Republicans as conserved (Meacham 2018). The Republicans' conservatism attitude is manifested in Trump's slogan of "Make America Great Again" that contributed to his success in the presidential elections (Meacham 2018). The slogan meant that America would return to her practices of old that made her prominent. Referring to such rhetoric is an intelligent move on the part of Blackburn, since the people love a great America, and can serve to put the Democrats' where they deserve just like the Republicans.
While on the floor, Bredesen alluded to the need of maintaining democratic institutions, but this is not the case with Blackburn following her recent boast that she kept a pistol in her pass which is a controversial point viewed in light of gun laws (Meacham 2018). While one camp holds to the conservation of democratic institutions, the other is liberal, but in practice, the Republicans appear to be more of conservatism that the Democrats who allude to conservatism nearly every minute in their debate.
Meacham introduces a historical review of the Tennessee voting trend that is likely to influence the elections in a different direction to that of the opinion poll; Tennessee reference to voting in specific minds. The inherent tendency of Tennessee's to vote temperamentally sound leaders disfavors Blackburn’s. Her lashing rebukes against Bredesen manifest strength and intemperance, and this history does not favor in the elections of Tennessee candidates. Therefore, Bredesen is a favorite candidate as revealed in the opinion polls and the temperance rule among the voters. The ballot will decide the outcome of such a hotly contested election.
November 6, 2018
Washington Post’s issue of November 6, 2018, addresses some of the most fundamental issues that must inform the voting pattern in Tennessee. Mattise (2008) highlights the divided opinion at the family level by introducing the voting pattern assumed by Wilburn Bunch and Felicia Bunch who are couples. In the juxtapose, Wilburn votes for a Republican stating that tax issues are his concern in the current government and would prefer voting someone to advance such matters. In contrast, his wife prefers to vote for the Democrat citing that this will introduce a system of check and balance by preventing monopoly of both the Senate and the Congress by the Republicans (Mattise 2018). The detail is important in emphasizing the polarized atmosphere created by Tennessee’s politics. In case Blackburn wins the seat, it will be a historical record because she will be the first woman to hold the Senatorial seat in Tennessee. It will also be a vote against the traditional pattern in Tennessee that favors temperamental-minded leadership. The expensive campaigns have seen Blackburn and Bredesen spend a net worth of $41.5 million and $43.6 million respectively (Mattise 2018). So far, Blackburn has spent more in her campaigns up to mid-October as compared to Bredesen but they do not differ, the range is only $2.1 million.
In her campaign trail, Blackburn has not relented on linking Bredesen to the Democrats. The later has tried to separate himself from the link by showing that his decision to vie has nothing to do with his party. She has warned the voters on several occasions to vote against “Hillary Clinton and her cohorts” (Mattise 2018). She applies the term "cohort" in this context to refer to Bredesen as Clinton's cohorts and the need to block Clinton's agendas again in the Tennessee senatorial seat (Mattise 2018). She has adopted the strategy to destroy Bredesen’s public image created during his tenure as the governor. As a governor, he assumed an independent democrat status by representing the people and not party positions. Blackburn uses Clinton as the symbolic figure of bad politics and bad governance that can only be expected by voting in any democrat. This covers even one with the purest agenda and illustrates the continuity and the impact of the 2016 presidential elections on the senatorial contests. It is like vengeance, and those who win regardless of their party agenda wins because the others are bad. Bredesen has made great moves to commingle with the republicans and democrats. As illustrated in her debate response at Knoxville, he has continued to pursue the same course.
November 7, 2018
Once more, Mattise (2018) furnishes a review of the Republican's victory. The victory won against all the odds such as the opinion polls that placed Bredesen ahead of Blackburn. Moreover, Bredesen was highly advantaged given his position as a congressional representative and historical stance as an independent democrat. It had also been noted that the historical voting pattern was favoring Bredesen, but this has not turned to be so. The main reason attributed to the victory of Blackburn is her repeated emphasis on Bredesen’s link to the Democratic Party, also known as the principle of association (Mattise 2018). Trump's and Pence’s support in the campaign period is also linked to the Republicans win in this election (Mattise 2018). This is one victory for the party, but its control of the Senate will depend on other senatorial results.
Recommendation
The opinion polls should be questioned, similar trends were observed in the presidential election when the polls placed Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump, but the votes created a different pattern. Research analysis tools should be reviewed, replaced, or improved. The opinion of the analyst created an impression of a Bredesen win, which has not happened. Analysts should consider better approaches and factors to consider in political analysis to arrive at concrete conclusions; in this case, there were subtle factors that influenced the election that was not perceived by both the analysts and opinion polls.
Bibliography
Cillizza, Chris. This is the single most important Senate race in the country . CNN. September 17, 2018.
Kos media. TN-Sen: New Marist/NBC Poll Has Phil Bredesen (D) Leading Marsha Blackburn (R) 48-46 . Daily Kos. September 7, 2018.
Mattise, Jonathan. Tennessee faces defining choice in open US Senate contest. The Washington Post. November 6, 2018.
Mattise, J. Blackburn wins Tennessee Senate race, keeping the seat for GOP. The Washington Post. November 7, 2018.
Meacham, Jon. In Tennessee, a Microcosm of the Midterms. New York Times. October 12, 2018.
Stempel III, Guido H. "Opinion Polls and the Media: Reflecting and Shaping Public Opinion." Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly, vol. 91, no. 1 (2014): 210.
