1. Country Description
China – referred to as the People’s Republic of China occupies the South Eastern region of Asia. The country is among the largest in the world in terms of the geographical size covering an expansive area stretching to about 9.6 million square kilometers. Communism forms the basis for the country’s political system with the Communist Party of China – the ruling party – being the largest and popular political establishment in the country. Mandarin Chinese is the most popular language in the country. Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism are the three key features that define China’s religious framework. Christianity and Islam also exist although at lower scale. China’s has seen its economy proliferate in the last three decades courtesy of economic reforms introduced in the country in 1978. Its annual growth rate of six percent has propelled the country to the second position among the world’s largest economies after the United States (US). The Communist Party’s victory over the Kuomintang and the subsequent retreat of the latter to Taiwan led the establishment of two rival Chinese regions – the People’s Republic occupying the mainland region and the Taiwan-based Republic of China.
2. Current Demographic Situation
United Nation’s (UN) estimates in 2018 reveal that China’s population at over 1.4 billion people, the largest globally. The population growth rate in the country stands at 0.46 per cent per year. Young people constitute the largest portion of the Chinese population with the segment claiming about 60 percent of the entire population. The rapid growth of the country’s economy coincided with a sharp increase in population. The country has responded to the spike in population by introducing the two-child limit policy. Current life expectancy in China stands at 75 and 78 years for men and women respectively. China’s age dependency ratio stood at 38.55 by 2016, according to World Bank findings.
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3. Population Challenges in China
Population Aging
The United Nations reports that China has the largest population of aging people in the world. Moreover, the global body’s report that this is further compounded by the failure of the government to put in place measure contains the situation (He, Goodkind & Kowal, 2016) Further, the UN warns that dependency ration in the country could rise to high levels of 45 percent by 2050. Experts warn that the aging population pose an existential threat to the country’s long-term development goals(Bai, Lai & Guo (2016). Moreover, the country’s middle-income earners and the entrepreneurial community are still at the foundation stages of their development. In effect, the aging population will most likely put a huge strain on the government. Additionally, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its evaluation of China reports that the current burden of debt stands at over 60 percent of Gross Domestic Product. In light of the above statistics, experts recommend that the country formulates policies that will check the aging ratios in the country.
Environmental Crisis
United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) – the UN agency that deals with environmental matters – cites China’s environmental crisis as one of the biggest challenges facing citizens of the Asian giant (Coulon et al., 2016). Rapid industrialisation sits at the core of the crisis, according to experts. China is currently is the leading emitter of carbon dioxide in the world. Moreover, the quality of air in the country has failed to satisfy the set of international health standards. Zhang et al. (2017) observe that the environmental crisis in the country is aggravated by contamination of water bodies through industrial chemicals and severe water shortages in some parts of mainland China (Rooij & Wang, 2018). The public patience in necessary reforms is fast gaining impatience over the snail pace at which the government is initiating reforms to address the concerns.
Rapid Urbanization
China is already grappling with the challenge of land scarcity, as previously noted. Rapid urbanization of the country together with meteoric economic growth has put more pressure on land in China. In the findings of Chen, Liu & Lu (2016), increased urbanization is increasingly chipping away arable land meant for the production of food. Moreover, the establishment of urban centers largely driven by industrialization has caused massive degradation of soil quality. Experts contend that the size of China’s arable land is reducing at a worrying level. Urbanization is considered the biggest threat to agricultural activities in the country and raises questions about food security in the country. Increased risk of soil pollution occasioned by dumping of industrial waste in the water bodies calls for urgent measure to address the looming crisis. The UN report, however, notes that the country is making positive steps towards cushioning its future generations from a major catastrophe likely to originate from poor land usage. Additionally, the ruling regime has identified food security as one of the major targets, underlying the gravity of the matter in the oriental giant.
4. China’s Population Projections in 2050
A report of a study – Attitudes about Aging: A Global Perspective – done by Pew Research Center on population projections asserts that the overall world population of the world will be standing at 9.6 billion people in 2050. The report, further, notes that China’s population size will be around 1.5 billion by the same time.
From the analysis, the population of China is expected to increase in the by 2050. Mortality rates in China are projected through migration will experience a reduction. It might be attributed to government-led innovations to reduce the spate of migrations from the rural areas to urban centers. Increased infertility rates also increases the potential of the population shoring up as the number of households is likely to increase. The projections also indicate the government has to strengthen its policy in addressing issues related to uncontrolled population growth that will apply a further huge pressure on the country.
5. Future Population Challenges for China
Reducing Work Age Population
The population of working age individuals in China is likely to drop to 700 million people by 2050, according to government forecasts. Moreover, the number of working-age people in the country has been on a downward spiral in the last five years. According to further statistics released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security in 2016, the aging population symbolizes a ticking time bomb to the country. In light of this fear, the government is contemplating a rise in the retirement age. Accordingly, China finds itself at a fundamental demographic turning point. An evaluation of the country in a demographic context reveals that the country is transitioning from an agriculture-based society to the urban-centred economy. The projected slump in the number of working people coupled with the current burden of fast-aging population means that the country has to put in place measure to address the challenges.
Overcrowded Urban Centers
The last decade has been characterized by the unprecedented increase in urban cities in China. Though the Communist regime adopted a raft of urbanization policies to check on the development of urban cities in the country, the systems are riddled with systemic flaws that compromise their effectiveness (Wu et al., 2016). Experts contend that the solution of the current urban mess is critical in shaping the future of the country. Furthermore, at the heart of the ongoing urbanization crisis is the problem of housing. Urbanization in the country is defined by the movement of people from rural areas to cities like Beijing and Shanghai. In the same vein, poor people are also flocking into regions occupied by the rich. Redistricting policy pursues by the government to convert elevate rural centers to urban status has further complicated the housing change in the country.
Further, Wu et al. (2016) writes that the unregulated flow of people is most likely to result in overcrowding of the urban centers. This will greatly hamper the effective delivery of essential services like water and sanitation in urban dwellings. Urban and physical planning experts suggest that the Chinese government should formulate policies that will check the movement of people from the rural areas to the town. Decentralizing industrial activities by setting up factories in the rural areas in touted as one way of reducing the exodus of young people to the urban centers in search of jobs. In addition, a review of the current policy on urbanization to align to emerging challenges is critical in finding a long-term solution to the problem. The projected increase in the number of young people and the expected burden of an aging population should act as a warning to the government to formulate policies to guard against the predicted effects.
Housing
Housing is currently a significant challenge in the urban centers of China. Experts, in addition, assert that the country’s urbanization has taken place at a quicker pace, and in effect getting many institutions poorly prepared to handle the influx of urban migrants. Moreover, there exists a disconnection between existing institutions and those that are actually important in addressing the matter. Weaknesses in the household registration system – rural dwellers, enjoy different residency status from urban residents – means that citizens are only allowed to enjoy residency rights within their localities of registration. Affordable housing is also a significant challenge in urban centers, just like around the world.
However, despite measures taken by the Chinese government to address this matter, the large population of the country means that the problem will persist in the future unless substantial steps are taken to deal with it. In 2007, the central government rolled out a program to provide affordable housing to needy people in society. A penetrating examination of the same suggests that the intervention worked in theory. However, it has massive failures which have rendered weak and ineffective. The mismatch in the demand and supply of the houses reflects the failure of the plan. Citizens are shunning homes constructed by local governments because they consider them more expensive compared to commercial apartments and accommodation provided by factories.
6. Policy Recommendations for Current Challenges
Rapid Urbanization
According to Wu et al. (2016), China should stem the increased movement of people into the urban centers by stepping up its implementation of the household registration system. It will aid in settling some people in other smaller towns. The government should the increase the decentralization of public services to reduce the need for people flocking to the major cities in search if government services. The Chines government should speed up the process of formulating and implementing policies meant to curb pollution, particularly in the urban centers. The challenge of urbanization can be addressed by creating synergy between public and private sectors in the country. The public-private will also focus on fixing the growing challenge of housing in the cities. In this arrangement, the government will permit private developers to set up housing estates while the latter will set aside a portion of the estates for affordable housing.
Population Aging
China should address the challenge of an aging population, which is posing a great challenge on the economic and financial health of the nation, through a two-pronged strategy. First, from an economic perspective, the country should review its retirement policy with a view of extending the retirement age. Work constitutes an essential element in general wellbeing of an individual. It should, therefore, serve as the basis of the policy review. In the same vein, the government should encourage old people to take paid and unpaid jobs to solve challenges related to finances (Bai, Lai & Guo, 2016). Phased-in retirement will also enable the government to widen its tax revenue base and lower expenditures on pensions. Old workers, due to their experience and depth of knowledge, will be helpful in organizations as guides to young people.
Environmental Crisis
China can reduce emissions in the atmosphere by reducing its consumption of coal energy. Consumption of coal is the most significant contributor to air pollutants in China. This is because the country relies heavily on coal to satisfy its energy demand, which currently stands at about 70 percent. Moreover, the country should increase its use of solar energy in running its operations. Day (2016), stresses that solar energy is a form of clean energy and proven to be a practical solution to the scourge of air pollution. Though the country is leading in the consumption of solar energy of solar energy, however, the lack of adequate funds and rooftop space are hampering the process of tapping more into solar energy. The government is under obligation to increase its funding towards effects to increase in generation of power from the solar to address the issue (Lyu et al., 2016). Pollution is not exclusive of China. On this basis, there is a need for external agencies to collaborate with the Chinese government in containing pollution.
References
Bai, X., Lai, D. W., & Guo, A. (2016). Ageism and depression: Perceptions of older people as a burden in China. Journal of Social Issues, 72(1), 26-46.
Chen, M., Liu, W., & Lu, D. (2016). Challenges and the way forward in China’s new-type urbanization. Land Use Policy, 55, 334-339.
Coulon, F., Jones, K., Li, H., Hu, Q., Gao, J., Li, F., ... & Canning, K. (2016). China's soil and groundwater management challenges: lessons from the UK's experience and opportunities for China. Environment international, 91, 196-200.
Day, K. A. (2016). China's environment and the challenge of sustainable development. Routledge.
East Asia/Southeast Asia :: China — The World Factbook - Central Intelligence Agency. (2018). Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/library/Publications/the-world- factbook/geos/print_ch.html
Lyu, S., Chen, W., Zhang, W., Fan, Y., & Jiao, W. (2016). Wastewater reclamation and reuse in China: opportunities and challenges. Journal of Environmental Sciences, 39, 86-96.
Wu, Y., Luo, J., Zhang, X., & Skitmore, M. (2016). Urban growth dilemmas and solutions in China: Looking forward to 2030. Habitat International, 56, 42-51.
Zhang, D., Wang, J., Lin, Y., Si, Y., Huang, C., Yang, J., & Li, W. (2017). Present situation and future prospect of renewable energy in China. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 76, 865-871.
He, W., Goodkind, D., & Kowal, P. R. (2016). An aging world: 2015 (pp. P95-16). Washington, DC: United States Census Bureau.
