Demographic transition theory was an idea of American demographer Frank W. Notestein. The idea describes the changing pattern in demography with factors such as mortality, growth rate, and fertility at the center of the change in demography. According to the classical demographic transition model, there is pre-transition, or the first phase of the model, which is characterized by a high birth rate with fluctuating death rates. The next stage is the early transition where the death rates begin to fall while birth rates remain high. The third phase of the model is the late transition, where the birth rate declines while population growth decelerates. The last stage is the post-transition, which has a birth rate and negligible population growth ( McCracken &Phillips, 2016). Kingsley Davis’ theory or multiphasic response focuses on the factors that lead to change in demography. The theory describes the rapid response to different stimuli that made it possible for demographic change. It describes the rapid change in population as stimulated by marriage, contraceptives, abortion, and general population growth. The stimuli linked to poverty lead to a natural decrease and decline in mortality. Davis (1963) argues that the theory coins from the idea that after successfully controlling the mortality rate, people wanted to sustain their status by using means that could help them achieve stability. They thus used every opportunity to sustain their status including abortion, contraceptives, and other birth control measures. There is a connection between the classical demographic transition model and Kingsley Davis' theory. In both cases, there is a natural decrease linked to reduced birth and death rates. As Kingsley Davis' theory notes, Japan and other countries in Europe began at the point where there was a high rate of death, then a high birth rate followed, and finally, people got involved in numerous birth control measures such as abortion that reduced the birth rate. Death rates were reduced in such areas due to industrialization which gave people economic stability. The final product of the interplay between birth and death rates was a reduction in the population. The four stages of the classical transition model also describe a similar situation in Devi’s theory where there are high birth and death rates, reduced death rates, and reduced birth rates. The difference is that Kingsley Davis’ theory describes a situation where there was a struggle to reduce high birth rates. However, the transition theory begins with the struggle to reduce both birth and death rates at the pre-transition stage.
References
Davis, K. (1963). The theory of change and response in modern demographic history. Population index , 29 (4), 345-366.
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McCracken, K., & Phillips, D. R. (2016). Demographic and epidemiological transition. International Encyclopedia of Geography: People, the Earth, Environment, and Technology: People, the Earth, Environment and Technology , 1-8.
