Earthquakes are a result of shifting plates at the crest of the earth. They cause mild or disastrous tremors on the surface of the earth (Dixon et al., 2014). In modern day research policies, there is no accurate or allowed prediction of the occurrence of waves that result from the elastic strain energy in the boundary lines between gliding plates. The most recent technology, however, enables scientists to predict the locations of major tremblers but not the time of occurrence. Such forecasts enable disaster preparedness and possible relocation strategies for residents on areas prone to earthquakes, such as California.
The United States Geological Survey funds a group of GPS array researchers located in high risk locations. The researchers conduct periodic analysis on the magnitude of uplift and subsidence through observation of underground motion. Subtle motions show the probability of small tremors while large sudden motions portray the possibility of disastrous earthquakes. The researchers use a large scale pattern of vertical motions from the GPS data, which tests the types of movements (Dixon et al., 2014). At the first trial, their prediction proved inconclusive and therefore, the sponsoring body banned the documentations of earthquake predictions.
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The approved scientific research on earthquakes is done in the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield, California. The choice on the San Andreas Fault is due to its nature as a transformational fault that forms the tectonic boundary of the North American Plate and the Pacific Plate. Scientists have drilled a hole that is three kilometers deep to install an array of sensors. The motion sensors send real time data to the advanced Shake Alert system that contains likelihood parameters decoded by computer software (Bose et al., 2014). The units include information on location, magnitude, proximate probabilities and seismic intensities. The scientific data predicts that there is an upcoming high magnitude earthquake at the Southern region of California. The research team, however, has not developed tools that predict the time of the disastrous phenomena.
References
Böse, M., Allen, R., Brown, H., Gua, G., Fischer, M., Hauksson, E., ...&Maechling, P. (2014). CISN ShakeAlert: An earthquake early warning demonstration system for California. In Early Warning for Geological Disasters (pp. 49-69).Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
Dixon, T. H., Jiang, Y., Malservisi, R., McCaffrey, R., Voss, N., Protti, M., & Gonzalez, V. (2014). Earthquake and tsunami forecasts: Relation of slow slip events to subsequent earthquake rupture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , 111 (48), 17039-17044.
