Effects of Foreign Policies in the Middle East

The creation of the non-state actors and the increasing armed and terrorist groups in the Middle East has forced countries like the United States to change their principal foreign policy in the Middle East. The United States is the leader of some of the campaigns that are against terrorist acts and atrocities in the region. The U.S. is leading several other states to join hand and assist in the restoration of peace and lawful governance in the Middle East region. The efforts that the United States is putting in place have made it to rethink of some of the foreign policies that can bring change in the region. At the moment, the United States is being perceived by most of the Arabic countries as increasingly irrelevant in responding to the Middle East issue. The perception is being reinforced by the reluctance that Washington has and the inability to take decisive measures recently. 

On the political front, the U.S. is perceived as right and wrong in supporting whoever the West will find to be the least decisive option. Instead, there is no backing of the dynamic process for changing pluralism in the elected government. After the second world war, countries like Britain and France saw an opportunity for the expansion of their colonial possession in the Middle East. However, there were frustrated with the interventions of the United States, such as self-determination of nations and democratic peacekeeping ( Alsmadi and Oudat 2019) . The actions made the country be a defender of independence. The Middle East countries became interested in the United States policymakers. The policies were towards oil exportation and formation of allies for them to be able to control resources during the cold war. The research paper aims and analyzing the effects that foreign policies have had on the Middle East. 

Literature Review 

Turkey is a country in the Middle East that has been a part of the foreign implication. Turkey is a member of the Greater Free Trade Area. The foreign policy's main implication has been of the trade actions taking place in the Middle East. The main challenge that the Middle East countries have been facing in on trade tariffs and ad-valorem ( Engelbert, Bektasoglu and Brockmeier 2014) . With foreign policies from Turkey as a member, there has been a reduction in the ad-valorem tax in the exportation and importation of goods and services to countries in the Middle East. The Middle East has gotten a lee-way in the agricultural sector to import and export agricultural products with fewer tariffs. The Middle East trade bloc has created a partnership with many foreign countries.  

The main challenge that the Middle East countries are facing is on security issues. The increasing security concerns have created fear among western countries, particularly the United States. Thus, western foreign countries have centered their policies on dealing with the rising concerns of insecurity ( Arain et al . 2020) The United States is protecting its interest in the Middle East as one of the ways of reducing violence. Thus, the policies that the United States has established in the Middle East have profound consequences. The American government's interest in the Middle East is to limit the Arabic radicalism and sustain some pro-western regimes that are moderate ( Krieg, 2016) . The country has created allies with some countries in the Middle East, such as Iran. They have signed peace treaties, and there has been an increase in development. The relationships have been effective in making the United States be able to manage the economic and political policies in the Middle East. 

China has been at the forefront in managing the policies in the Middle East due to their operations. The main policy by the Chinese government is that of energy strategy. The Middle East are great in producing oils which is a key source of energy. Most countries are interested in the oil found in the Middle East and there has been variation of interest on the issue. The Chinese government, oil in the Middle East, has been the source of establishing a good relationship with the country ( Salman and Geeraerts 2013) . The Chinese government uses three main energy security strategies to secure underproduction in the country. One of the strategies is through the reformation of domestic energy to maximize their production. The other strategy is through expanding the energy mix to reduce the overdependency on fossil energy. The final strategy is the variation in diversity in foreign energy so that there is no overreliance on a single country. The diversification has been possible through the relationship that they build with the Middle East countries.   

Foreign policies in the Middle East have been huge contributors to environmental segregation. There has been the creation of trade relationships with many foreign countries. The Middle East countries have to create resources that will enable them to export more and meet foreign countries' demand. The action has led to industrial development, and more industries have been set to manufacture and export products to foreign countries. Also, urbanization in the Middle East and more cities are built to attract foreign investors ( Al-Mulali and Ozturk 2015) . There is an increase in the country's energy consumption level to meet the set demands in foreign countries. The effects of all the foreign policies in the country have increased the countries' overall status in the Middle East but have largely contributed to environmental degradation. There has been an increase in the political instability in the country as every individual wasn't to rule over the resources, which are generating high revenues from foreign countries.            

Theory  

Foreign policies have positive implications for countries in the Middle East. From the literature review, it is evident that most foreign countries aim to establish a good relationship with the Middle East for the gain of both countries. Some policies focus on creating peace treaties. Others are making a trade connection between the exportation and importation of goods and services, particularly the oil present in the Middle East. Foreign policies have attracted investors in the country who contribute to the economic growth of the country. Fiscal development has been of crucial importance to the Middle East countries due to foreign policies ( Shah 2016) . There has been the creation of trade agreements between the United States and countries in the Middle East. Industrialization in the country cuts across the infrastructure that has improved transportation and exportation of their products to overseas states. Thus, an increase in foreign policies in the middle east has resulted in industrialization and stabilization of countries' economies in the Middle East. 

Many countries in the Middle East are focusing on democratic government due to the effects of foreign policy. There has been urbanization taking place in the Middle East countries as many people are fighting for equality in the available resources. For instance, there has been an expression of the emotional effects in Turkey after having democracy in the country. There is a diffusion of democracy through the increase in foreign trading states ( Kirisci 2011) . The focus is on how best to share the already existing resource and reduce the region's war. Foreign policies might not have been effective in reducing the Middle East region's insecurity, but there are efforts to curb the situation. 

Methods 

There are two hypotheses to be tested in the study. One of the hypotheses is null and the other one is alternative. The Research question that the investigation will answer is What are the effects of foreign policies in the middle east? 

H 0 (Null Hypothesis) – There is no statistically significant difference between foreign policies in the Middle East and industrialization and stabilization of the economy. 

H 1 (Alternative Hypothesis) – There is a statistically significant difference between foreign policies in the Middle East and industrialization and stabilization of the economy. 

The investigation will aim at measuring the null hypothesis that foreign policies in the Middle East have not contributed to industrialization and stabilization of the economy. If the investigation outcomes indicate the presence of a statistically significant difference between the variables, then it implies we will have to accept the alternative hypothesis. The development will drive to the conclusion that foreign policies in the Middle East have contributed to industrialization and stabilization of the economy. 

There are two variables in the analysis. One of the variables is dependent, while the other variable is independent. The study's independent variable is the cause, which is the foreign policies, while the dependent variables are the effects, and they are two. They include industrialization and stabilization of the economy in the Middle East. Several foreign policies are present in the Middle East. The research will focus on trade policies that have been established in the Middle East by the United States. The country to focus on in the Middle East is Iran. While measuring the industrialization variable, the focus will be on the number of industries that have been established in Iran from 1997 to 2007. The stabilization variable's focus will be on the GDP of the Middle East country from 1997 to 2007. The variation in the number of industries in the country and changes in the GDP within the stipulating years will provide information showing the effects of trade policies in the Middle East countries. 

Data collection in the investigation will be done through surveys, documents, and records. The survey methods of data collection will focus on collecting information on foreign trade policies in the country. There will be questionnaires that will ask a selected group of individuals on their opinion on the country's foreign trade policies. The documentation method of data collection will focus on collecting information on the number of industries established from 1997 to 2007. The data can be obtained online from the country's ministry of industrialization. They will have information on the number of companies they have been registering in each financial year. Records will be essential in collecting data on the country's GDP from 1997 to 2007. The data can equally be obtained online from the country's statistical website on economic growth. 

Since the data collection is quantitative, the analysis will be done using SPSS as the statistical tool. A regression analysis will be vital in determining the relationship between the independent and dependent variables. While using the regression analysis, some assumptions need to be made. One of the premises is that the relationship between the dependent and the independent variable is linear. Another hypothesis is that the independent variable is random. The last assumption is that the residual value follows a normal distribution. The regression will be a simple linear regression. The following equation will be applicable. 

Where: 

Y = dependent variable (industrialization/ stabilization of the economy) 

X = independent variable (foreign policy) 

C = intercept 

M = Constant. 

The first linear regression will be to determine the effect of the foreign policy on industrialization and the second linear regression will be to determine the effects of the foreign policy on stabilization of the economy. 

Results 

Studies indicate that United States foreign policy has effectively provided the Middle East countries with a security advantage. However, the Trump administration has not supported the free trade policy between the United States and countries in the Middle East. Thus, there is a high chance that abolishing free trade has negatively affected industrialization and stabilization of the economy of Middle East Countries ( Hassan 2020) . However, such studies' outcomes might have neglected the fact that the policy changes are taking place in the recent administration of the United States. The research will focus on data and information within ten years ranging between 1997 and 2007. The outcomes are likely to be different from what other studies are indicating. There is a need to understand that as the country's administration changes, so does the foreign policies in the Middle East, and the effects are likely to vary. 

Trade policies such as and free trade and reduction in taxation increase direct investment into the host country. A specific foreign policy is likely to increase the country's economic growth and create stability in the long-run. However, other factors might make a different outcome. There is a need to consider the country's technological condition, the availability of the workforce, and the human capital ( Forte and Moura 2013) . Thus, countries in the Middle East have a crucial role in ensuring there are readily available resources that will make them realize the positive effects of foreign policies. The investigation will rely on the element of  Ceteris Paribus . From the theory, all the other factors such as technology and human capital will be held constants and focus on growth and industrialization.   

The outputs of the regression model using an SPSS will generate a model summary table. From the table, and two variables will be of crucial concern. The variables are R and R2. The R will provide the degree of correlation between the variables. The R2 will provide information on how much of the dependent variable's total variation can be explained by the independent variable. The other table that will be generated is the ANOVA table. The table will show how well the analysis fits the information and data collected. If the p-value will be less than 0.05, then the regression model would be statistically significant in predicting the dependent and independent variables' outcomes. The coefficient table will develop a model that shows the relationship between the dependent and the independent variable. If the model shows an increase in both the GDP and the number of industries in the country from 1997 up to 2007, then we will accept the alternative hypothesis that there is a statistically significant difference between foreign policies in the Middle East and industrialization and stabilization of the economy. From the information, it will be easy to conclude that foreign policy has contributed to an increase in automation and stabilization of the Middle East countries' economies.  

Conclusion  

The United States is one of the countries whose policies have primarily affected Middle East countries' operations. The main concern in the area is the state of insecurity and violence increasing over the years. Violence in the Middle East is mainly because of the oil resource generating a lot of revenue. Leaders in the area are after political power so that they can have control over the oil rigs. Some of the foreign policies have been enacted to ensure there is significant trade in the Middle East. The effects of foreign policies in the Middle East are yet to be established. The research paper aims and analyzing the impact of some of the procedures in the functioning of the Middle East countries. The central policy of concern in the investigation is the United States' trade policy in the Middle East region. Data collection will be done through surveys and records. The data analysis will be conducted using SPSS, and the method of analysis is linear regression.  

Bibliography 

Al-Mulali, U., & Ozturk, I. (2015). The effect of energy consumption, urbanization, trade openness, industrial output, and the political stability on the environmental degradation in the MENA (the Middle East and North African) region.  Energy ,  84 , 382-389. 

Alsmadi, A. A., & Oudat, M. S. (2019). The effect of foreign direct investment on financial development: Empirical evidence from Bahrain.  Ekonomski pregled ,  70 (1), 22-40. 

Arain, G. A., Bhatti, Z. A., Ashraf, N., & Fang, Y. H. (2020). Top-down knowledge hiding in organizations: an empirical study of the consequences of supervisor knowledge hiding among local and foreign workers in the Middle East.  Journal of Business Ethics ,  164 (3), 611-625. 

Engelbert, T., Bektasoglu, B., & Brockmeier, M. (2014). Moving toward the EU or the Middle East? An assessment of alternative Turkish foreign policies utilizing the GTAP framework.  Food policy ,  47 , 46-61. 

Forte, R., & Moura, R. (2013). The effects of foreign direct investment on the host country's economic growth: theory and empirical evidence.  The Singapore Economic Review ,  58 (03), 1350017. 

Hassan, O. (2020). Crisis, narratives, and the construction of US-Middle East relations: continuity and change in world history and Trump's America First.  Global Affairs ,  6 (1), 121-141. 

Kirisci, K. (2011). Turkey's" demonstrative effect" and the transformation of the Middle East.  Insight Turkey ,  13 (2), 33. 

Krieg, A. (2016). Externalizing the burden of war: the Obama Doctrine and US foreign policy in the Middle East.  International Affairs ,  92 (1), 97-113. 

Salman, M., & Geeraerts, G. (2013). The impact of strategic hedging on the foreign politics of great powers: the case of Chinese energy strategy in the Middle East. In  China Goes Global Conference, September  (pp. 25-27). 

Shah, M. H. (2016). Financial development and foreign direct investment: The case of the Middle East and North African (MENA) developing nations.