Question one
The trilingual intelligence officer suspected of stealing intelligence was tested using 20 binary questions. The questions required him to randomly respond to ascertain if indeed he stole the information. Binomial probability distribution was used in this case as illustrated below. The officer randomly answered 11 out of 20 questions. The chance of responding is way above the chance responding limit in this situation (Wilson & Lorenz, 2017). However, this situation succeeds as a binomial experiment since it has a fixed number of trials, which equals 20, with every trial being done independently. The outcomes of the trails were all the same with either success or failure. In this case, the success was distributed to 11 trials and failure to only 9 trials. This is why the suspect was found innocent and evidence established later proved his innocence.
Question Two
Using the Explicit Alternative Testing (EAT), MT was declared innocent after answering half the items from 24 questions. The answering was entirely indicative of guessing (Hall & Thompson, 2007). Additionally, information originating from interrogations proved that he was innocent. Someone else came forward later to confess to the crime leading to his eventual release. Using the binomial probability distribution, MT answered 13 out of 24 questions which by guessing resulted in the probability of 0.4194, greater than the standard probability of 0.5 (Hall & Thompson, 2007). This placed him clearly within the chance responding radar and this contributed heavily to his innocence.
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Question Three
A binomial distribution experiment works when there are two possible outcomes and a specific set of trials to be conducted. For my research study, I would love to incorporate a yes/no survey and analyze it using a binomial probability distribution (Schindler et al., 2013). To make the binomial distribution effective, the research study will identify 100 respondents to take a yes/no answer survey. The topic would be to identify if residents of a certain village prefer online purchase and delivery of groceries. Binomial distribution would provide effective results since this approach would divide the 100 respondents into two groups. The division will make it easy to establish the winning group and the best decision moving forward.
References
Hall, H. V., & Thompson, J. S. (2007). Explicit Alternative Testing: Applications of the Binomial Probability Distribution to Clinical- Forensic Evaluations. Forensic Examiner, 16 (1), 38-42.
Schindler, S., Kissler, J., Kuhl, K. P., Hellweg, R., & Bengner, T. (2013). Using the yes/no recognition response pattern to detect memory malingering. BMC Psychology, 1 (12).
Wilson, J. R., & Lorenz, K. A. (2017). Modeling Binary Correlated Responses using SAS, SPSS and R. New York: Springer.
