The subject of global warming has dominated scientific circles for quite a while now. There have been major changes in the earth’s climate since the 19 th century and the effects of these climatic changes are increasingly being felt across the globe. Global warming can be defined as the rise in the recorded average temperature of the Earth's climate system. A rise in the temperature of the earth’s climate system has profound effects on various climatic elements on the earth that have a spill-over effect causing a chain reaction of events. Very high weather settings, wildfires, erratic or abnormally high rainfall, increased occurrence and intensity of hurricanes and drought are all extreme conditions being witnessed in higher proportion compared to earlier centuries ( Houghton, 2009). There is however an argument as to the validity of global warming and its effects being caused by human activities with some people arguing that these occurrences are just natural and have nothing to do with human activities. These opposing views will be looked at in this paper, their strengths and weaknesses analyzed and a preferred view stated in conclusion.
The views of those supporting the concept of global warming as put forward by scientists will start of this paper. Proponents of global warming concept put forward a number of claims to support their stand that there is enough conclusive evidence supporting the claim that the climate change being experienced is manmade. Scientists have been studying past climates to seek out the effect of human impact on climate change and argue that the effect of human activities is evident and obvious. The temperatures of the world over the past 150 years have been tracked and recorded i.e. on land and also sea surface temperatures and found out that they are rising at unprecedented rates significantly affecting the climate ( Houghton, 2009). Proponents of global warming attribute this to the increase in production of greenhouse gases through human activities which they argue has been increasing at an alarming rate since the industrialization age. Industrialization was accompanied by increased demand for energy to power industries leading to increased production and burning of fossil fuels. The fact that a test of gases in the atmosphere reveals that not all gases in the atmosphere are natural, attests to addition of foreign gases by human activities ( Oreskes & Conway 2011). This is the main argument by proponents of global warming on the effect of human activities on climate change.
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The main strength of this argument lays in the support it gets from the numerous tests and computer simulations done by scientists to investigate the causes of the temperature rise. Computer simulations of how global climate works reveal a temperature rise pattern that is intertwined with the production of these greenhouse gases. When the simulations are run with what is assumed as “natural elements” of climate only, the results are not consistent with what is being observed in the global climate today. However, when the simulations are done with the natural elements plus the effects of the greenhouse gases, the results are consistent with the climatic patterns being witnessed ( Solomon 2010). This, the protagonists argue, confirms that the accelerated warming of the earth witnessed in the last few decades cannot be explained without the effect of the greenhouse gases. This warming is what has led to the change in climatic patterns across the globe with the increasingly devastating effects being witnessed all over.
The main weakness in this argument is that climate models/ simulations usually have so many variables factored therein that any one variable wrongly assumed has the potential of significantly changing the results thus putting a doubt on the reliability of computer models. Another weakness is that there are still so many elements of global climate that humans still have no full understanding of therefore studies into the workings of nature and climate cannot be fully relied on ( Solomon 2010).
Opponents of this manmade climate change argument also put forward a number of claims to support their stand. They argue that everything being witnessed in today’s climate is not unprecedented but are just fluctuations in line with expectations ( Oreskes & Conway 2011), The rise in sea-level, change in glacier sizes and even ocean acidification is nothing to be worried about as it falls in line with normal climatic changes.
Skeptics of global warming refute the greenhouse gases effect put forward terming it as sensationalist with no scientific backing. If one was to burn anything, food for instance, the hydrocarbons will burn to produce CO 2 and H 2 O making water a greenhouse gas since it has been produced by human activity and also the most produced greenhouse gas, not CO 2 as put forward by global warming activists ( Solomon 2010). Another valid argument by the skeptics is that human activities produce less than 4% of all CO 2 . When plants and animals die, they decompose releasing CO 2 back to nature making the oceans, which cover nearly 70% of the earth’s surface, the largest producer of CO 2 since it has nearly 80% of all plant and animal life. Humans occupy only 7.5% of the earth’s surface making their contribution to the carbon dioxide levels very minimal ( Solomon 2010).
The weaknesses of these arguments have been highlighted severally and in detail by scientists. The fact that man’s activities produce a small percentage of the CO 2 levels is not enough to dismiss the effect that this has on climate. That the ocean is the largest carbon reservoir is not in dispute but this has always been the case and since nothing has changed on this front it is not worth focusing on. The levels of carbon dioxide and other manmade gases have however increased at alarming rates and even a small change in the composition and levels of atmospheric gases over a long period of time is enough to effect significant changes in climate ( Oreskes & Conway 2011).
Another weakness of this view is the claim that the climate change being experienced is normal. Simply because climatic changes of nearly similar proportions have been witnessed before does not make it normal. It is true that there have been similar periods of warming and cooling in history but this can also be traced back to increases in greenhouse gases. The effects then were also serious leading to effects such as mass extinctions of plant and animal species ( Houghton, 2009). We should therefore use this as a predictor that the consequences this time will be more catastrophic since the rate of emission of these gases is way higher now than it was then.
Some global warming skeptics have also used the expanding ice sheet to debunk the claim that glaciers are melting and disappearing. This argument has also been dismissed by researchers who claim that the ice sheet is just spreading as it is blown by winds but not increasing in volume. Scientists have evidence that the ice sheet is fast shrinking leading to a rise in sea levels that can even be supported by the disappearing of the Tuvalu islands ( Oreskes & Conway 2011).
The concept of global warming caused by human activities is a concept that I agree with and my stand is based on the numerous scientific studies of climatic trends in the past, present and predictions of the future that point towards a catastrophic climatic change and the fact that there is consensus about this from about 97% of experts on climatology and related disciplines. The arguments brought up by opponents of global warming have all been rebutted with scientific evidence, and the fact that most studies done opposing global warming have been funded either directly or indirectly by huge corporations, that stand to lose a lot of money if measures are taken to reduce emission of greenhouse gases ( Oreskes & Conway 2011), puts a doubt on the sincerity of those opposing the global warming phenomenon.
References
Houghton, J. (2009). Global Warming : The Complete Briefing . Cambridge University Press,
Oreskes N., Conway E. (2011). Merchants of Doubt : How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming . A&C Black.
Solomon Lawrence (2010). The Deniers : The World-renowned Scientists who Stood Up Against Global Warming Hysteria, Political Persecution, and Fraud . Richard Vigilante Books.
