Introduction
Terrorism is slowly progressing to a phenomenon that is retrogressive to the security of many countries, both developed and developing. Moving away from traditional violence, terrorism has now amalgamated into the internet (Aly et al., 2017). The fight against terror is a continuous global exercise where one terror contingent is defeated and other contingent crops up sometime later, at least for the developed countries. First world countries seem to have the upper hand as they tend to take the war to the origins of terror; for instance, America’s involvement in the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or its involvement in the fight against Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Their war with ISIS came after it had quashed Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Despite the gains made in fighting terrorism around the world, it may be apparent that the efforts will not be enough, or rather, they have to be streamlined to ascertain the total effectiveness of winning the war against terror.
Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Syria, and Pakistan are among the leading countries in the world to be riddled by terrorism. Terrorism is a changing phenomenon that both developed and developing countries need to acclimatize with to get a handle on the situation. Without a counter move, then the world would turn into chaos by giving in to the whims of terrorism and their violence. It is a form of violence practiced by violent extremists often towards regimes or governments to get them to change particular aspects about governance or favor towards a group. The evolution of terrorism has led to numerous advances geared toward fighting the vice. For instance, terrorism is presently categorized into different contingents such as Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) terrorism (Busch & Joyner, 2009). Apart from CBRN, terrorists also use pure violence and fear to achieve their objectives. Their main objective is to achieve a massive innocent casualty rate; the attack must be witnessed by many and, if possible, appear in fourth estate networks and social media channels. A massive exposure would send fear among citizenry who would pressure governments to bend to the terrorist’s will. The popularity of the attack would work in favor of terror groups such as the Islamic State in Syria (ISIS). The favor in such groups helps them recruit more members and gain funding for their effective and successful attacks. However, successful attacks are pegged on careful planning, as many countries have joined the Global War On Terror (GWOT) to work jointly against the vice (Michael, 2012). In conjunction with counterterrorism efforts and joint intelligence-sharing networks, countries have majorly got ahead of most imminent terror attacks.
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It must be agreed that one of the challenges that are widely accepted as a global challenge is the problem of terrorism. Terrorism is currently a crime without borders. It would fit into the definition of organized crime, however, prescribed. Its reach is global. However, the execution of the ills of terrorism is boundary-specific and dependant on the security of the targeted nations. America’s security has been beefed up following the 9/11 bombings on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. The attack exposed security loopholes that Al-Qaeda took advantage of to carry out the massive attack. However, America learned its weakness and made adjustments that would strengthen their borders against internal and external threats. One of the major adjustments America made was in its intelligence system (Jenkins et al., 2011). The creation of Homeland Security and the formation of an intelligence network played a vital role in protecting the nation against terrorism and violent extremism, and any other kind of threat to national security.
Selected CBRN Agent background
One of the most effective terror agents is a biological weapon. The biologic attack is called bioterrorism, and it is the intentional release of biological agents to cause illness and death on people, animals, and plants. The main objective is always to install instability in society for a cause that is either illegal or impractical in modern society. The biological agent can be in the form of a virus, bacteria, fungi, or toxin (Geissler & Moon, 2003). A bioweapon is effective if it has no cure and also one that a cure will be difficult to develop. A biological weapon that is in the form of a virus can be formed and launched silently in public without notice. The current COVID 19 pandemic is a good example of how a virus could spread fast and efficiently on a global scale without notice or traceability. Tracing the virus back to the author would also be difficult, especially if the country or the world is struggling with a cure for such a virus. The coronavirus originated from China and is currently a global threat, with numbers surging up again after a short stint of low infection rates. If coronavirus was a form of bioterrorism, then it would be a very effective one because almost a year after the pandemic begun, the world is still grappling with eradicating the virus from the face of the earth. The potency of a virus can be traced back in history as far as the 1800s. There was an influenza outbreak in 1889 – the Asiatic flu, the 1918 influenza flu, also known as the Spanish flu, the flu in 1957 (H2N2) that emerged in East Asia. All the flu was caused by viruses and had many fatalities (Williams et al., 2020). It shows the deadliness of a virus, and if a terror faction was to consider a bioweapon, it should be a virus.
Terror is an ideology propagated to its followers through radicalization. Radicalization is the process of convincing someone to do the unjust to correct a formulated injustice committed unto their society or their people. The Al-Qaeda faction chose the United States of America as a target because of its involvement in Afghanistan political restoration, however, in a westernized manner. It went against its traditional Arabic beliefs to introduce the western culture in a system that was fully governed through traditional clans. Therefore, to convince recruits of all levels is easy if they too are in a community that was affected by some kind of unacceptable influence. The logic is extremist groups with a large financial backing can recruit scientists with the capability of making a lethal virus. If the recruitment is out of the question, then terror extremist groups are also known for conducting kidnappings on high-level officials. Therefore, almost anything is possible for them, and governments should remain vigilant.
Proposed Terrorist Scenario
As a terrorist targeting America, different measures need to be taken towards carrying a successful attack. One of the initial levels one has o assume is that a terror faction cell already exists in America because carrying an attack from an external point of view would be quite difficult. The terror cell has to be meeting from time to time but not frequently and periodically to avoid detection. The meetings and communication should be coded to avoid any detection or suspicion. Since the meetings are rare, they could take up even three years for a plan to reach its implementation stage. However, during the meetings, the terror faction would have gone through about eight levels of a planning cycle before carrying out the attack (Pearse, 2015). The first level is to launch a surveillance drive to mark out the specified targets to make a SWOT analysis. It also entails the response for emergency personnel and security contingents’ ability to get to the area in time. Surveillance may begin by mapping out the attack zone and recording that information somewhere either by using a phone or by making drawings that could be referred upon. Then one of the recruits could initiate a simple incident to determine the response time, at least for emergency responders and law enforcement. The incident could be small, like a fight between two radicalized youth in the team. Aspects such as traffic and human casualties can also be considered for an accurate response time estimate.
The second step is making inquiries about different aspects of the target at hand. It entails eliciting information from members of the public in a manner not to raise any form of suspicion among them. For instance, if the target was the underground metro, terrorists would ask where the power main is, the control room, and several exits, which would help if some members of the terror group wish to escape. Apart from the amenities, the group will employ radicalized youth to keep watch and gather useful information. The information should be useful for carrying out a successful bioterrorism attack.
Testing security is a vital part of the planning stage. This can be done by visiting the target location and try and access vital and restricted areas to see how security would respond. This is done while taking notes of the key issues to be used during the attack. Terrorists can also attempt to access physical security barriers in the target vicinity and take notes of their strengths and weaknesses. Once all three levels are complete, the group is capable of coming up with a solid attack. After testing the security and coming up with a tentative plan, it is paramount that the group gets finances to procure the right hardware to be used in the attack. The main agent is a biological virus, but being a terror group, they must have a way in which they must show their popularity and prove their relevance through their existence and successful attacks. Therefore, some form of violence through a full-blown assault of innocent people in the subway system would suffice.
After acquiring finances, the group begins garnering relevant supplies through clandestine channels to avoid detection from law enforcement or intelligence units. The acquisition is coordinated in a manner that the materials are not bough all in one day but could be done in bits and parts using different actors. For instance, if all participants have gun licenses, that would allow them to buy gun parts from different stores before assembling it into a whole gun usable in a terror attack. While making these operations, the team will avoid suspicious behavior that could raise concerns either from the public or law enforcement. Both law enforcement and the public have a code they have in monitoring suspicious characters. The knowledge is imparted to them through relevant authorities in a joint mission to eradicate terrorism. For instance, the public is given the tell signs to look for to establish who is a suspicious character, let alone terrorist planning to attack. Suspicious characters do not just belong, and therefore, the team must be advised to blend in and look normal to the public.
Drills and dry runs are vital to getting it right. The group can make dry runs at night and in the day to estimate the causalities, police response time, and whether there is a chance of escape after. However, escape is not too important for the group as the modus operandi for a terrorist is to die for a higher cause. Once the drills are conducted clandestinely, then the group will be ready for execution. The attacks must happen simultaneously. Two attacks away from the target to act as diversions so that the city can take all its resources to the two locations. The target will remain unmanned or with fewer resources allocated for it. Most emergency responders and law enforcement may be allocated to the initial attacks leaving the main targets unattended. The confusion caused by the two attacks is also likely to send more people through the metro, therefore, having many subjects for the virus to be released through. With the metro service connecting many parts, the virus is likely to spread fast and evenly throughout the city, the state, and the entire continent.
Prevention Strategy
America already has a wide network of organizations and personnel working towards preventing any attack on the USA (Rostow, 1967). Homeland Security works together with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Department of Justice (DOJ), law enforcement, the people, and other security authorities abroad, among others. Sharing of intelligence happens through these channels to get ahead of terror groups trying to launch an attack. However, the situation is different for a virus attack. The American authorities must work closely with other agencies internally and externally to monitor scientists and raw materials that would be used for making a bioweapon to harm the land of the brave and free. The common procedures, like reporting of suspicious activities, should not be abandoned. The measure is a preventive measure that would foil terrorist plans to launch a virus attack.
In the event of an attack, the target area should be locked down to avoid escapes, and not all resources should be allocated to such an area just in case the attack is a decoy. Security agencies like the National Guard should be put on standby just in case they need to offer a helping hand.
Events such as these should also be simulated for government and cities to get a grasp on how to respond to such a terror attack; therefore, when it happens, they are ready to counter. No intelligence collected on an imminent attack should be taken lightly but verified whether it is credible and shared among the security agencies.
Conclusion
The end of terrorism is not inevitable, which translates to the end of the war on terror is not predictable. Terrorism is a continuous cycle of violence and fear as long as society and civilization exist (Jackson, 2018). Therefore, it will keep on morphing with time, and it is upon governments and authorities to keep on changing policy and strategy on how to counter-terrorism.
References
Aly, A., Macdonald, S. K., Jarvis, L., & Chen, T. M. (2017). Violent extremism online: new perspectives on terrorism and the internet . Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group.
Busch, N. E., & Joyner, D. (2009). Combating weapons of mass destruction: the future of international nonproliferation policy . University of Georgia Press.
Michael, G. (2012). Lone wolf terror and the rise of leaderless resistance . Vanderbilt University Press.
Jenkins, B. M., Godges, J., & Dobbins, J. (2011). The long shadow of 9/11: America’s response to terrorism . RAND.
Geissler, E., & Moon, J. E. van C. (2003). Biological and toxin weapons: research, development, and use from the Middle Ages to 1945 . Oxford University Press.
Williams, M., Armstrong, L., & Sizemore, D. C. (2020). Biologic, Chemical, and Radiation Terrorism Review . National Center for Biotechnology Information. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29630269/.
Pearse, J. J. (2015). Investigating terrorism: current political, legal, and psychological issues . John Wiley & Sons.
Rostow, E. V. (1967). American security in an unstable world . US GPO.
Jackson, R. (2018). Routledge handbook of critical terrorism studies . Routledge.
