Introduction
Texas was recognized as a state in 1845, and its first participation in the presidential election happened in 1848. From the year 1872 all the way to 1976, Democratic Party won the elections, but the situation changed towards 1980. Since 80s, Texas State has remained a stronghold of the Republicans. It has been labeled as a ‘red’ state from the time of Bush. In the recent presidential elections in 2016, Donald Trump won in Texas with a 52% margin over Hillary’s 43% (Barreto, Gutierrez & Ruffini, 2019). Currently, Texas State has 38 electoral votes, and the number is expected to grow following the 2020 Census. Following the continued growth of the Latinos, Texas is likely to become a major political battle ground in the future. In the ensuing analysis, the focus is on Texas’ voting behaviors in the presidential elections, in relation to demographic and cultural factors.
Voting in Presidential Elections Since 2000
In its context, Texas is among the top states that have huge number of immigrants, currently standing at 4.7 million. Reports indicate that, over a third of these persons are naturalized citizens eligible to vote. The remaining fraction is simply undocumented persons and other legal citizens that cannot take part in elections. Although majority of immigrants in Texas hail from Latin America, a good number come from Asia and contribute towards reduction in the count of individuals allowed to vote (Griffin, Frey & Teixeira, 2019). Notably, Texas State has third-lowest median age in the United States. Reports indicate that, individuals above the age of 65 records the highest turn out rates during the presidential elections. According to political experts and demographers, these voters are the married ones with children. They are keen on issues that influence voters towards polls such as good roads and schools. In that sense, chances are that they will stick to a certain voting history that campaigner’s target.
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In view of the voting in presidential elections since 2000, political analysts feel that the ground is shifting. Owing to the growing population of the minority in Texas since 2000, Democrats are slowly making progress in a state that has been labeled red. The midterm elections have shown the role played by demographics in any election. The numbers of Latinos, Hispanic/Latinx, blacks and Asian American populations have increased, in favor of the Democrats. The majority of minorities in Texas are the Hispanics, followed by Asian Americans and African Americans (Griffin, Frey & Teixeira, 2019). However, reports have shown that, although the ground has been shifting slowly, Democrats will still need 35% of the whites to vote in their favor for them to take over Texas. In 2000, Texas Demographic Center revealed that the minorities were 47% of the population, while the whites were at 53%. Since then, the situation has changed. According to demographers, Texas population in 2017 had 58% of the minorities, and 42% were the whites. However, the changes in demographics have been followed by new laws made by Texas Legislature, demanding for strict requirements for voting. In that sense, mobilizing the minorities to vote remains an uphill task.
Swing State of a Noncompetitive State
Texas State has been subject of debate in the recent times due to the previous voting patterns witnessed there. Political analysts feel that, Texas is embracing blue and red appears to be diminishing. However, experts in political matters feel that the state has not yet become a complete swing state. According to their observations, Texas State has two cities namely Houston and Dallas, which are considered as blue. In addition, two medium cities namely Austin and San Antonio are equally blue cities. Even so, experts believe that it would be inappropriate for the Democrats expect to carry Texas in 2020 (Barreto, Gutierrez & Ruffini, 2019). The state is rich in diversity and equally large in terms of size and as such, it has opportunities that give room to progressive politics, capable of having huge effect on lives of people.
Future Presidential Elections
In the United States, demographics are one of the factors that play a huge role in determining the presidential elections of any state. In the case of Texas, the recent influx of the minorities is likely to benefit the Democrats in upcoming elections in 2020. In often cases, the nonwhites are considered as Democrats, and following their large numbers in Texas State, the electoral terrain is likely to shift (Huerta & Cuarta, 2018). Texas has been a red for over three decades now, but blue is likely to challenge this status quo owing to the increased numbers of the minorities. In that sense, the 2020 presidential elections will be competitive as each candidate tries to get a slice of the minorities. Another factor that will determine the competitiveness of the presidential election is the reduced number of non-college educated voters, majority being the whites, the aged persons and the eventual influx of the new generation. The younger generations of the whites have joined the Texans of color in the Democratic Party. Compared to the older population, the younger whites are majorly Democrats (Huerta & Cuarta, 2018).
In 2016 presidential elections, Texas Electoral College voted in Trump’s favor. This happened despite Trump’s annoying remarks during the 2016 campaigns when he characterized Mexicans as rapists and criminals. In the next ten years, the bill that was passed in November 2016 is likely to change the voting pattern (Barreto, Gutierrez & Ruffini, 2019). The Latino minorities are likely to shift the Texas party coalitions. Figures show that, there are over 1.7 million newly registered Latino voters, and another 2 million eligible unregistered voters. In the event parties take their time to convince the Latino minorities, 2020 election will be different from the previous years (Barreto, Gutierrez & Ruffini, 2019).
Conclusion
In overall, Texas State has the second largest number of votes at the Electoral College. For the last three decades, Texas has been labeled as a red state, but political analysts and demographers feel that the ground is slowly shifting in favor of blue. The factors associated with this transition are the increased number of Latino voters, and the newly registered young white voters. It is believed that in 2020, the presidential elections in Texas will be highly competitive, as each party pushes to get a slice of the Latino voters.
References
Barreto, M. A., Gutierrez, A. & Ruffini, P. (2019).Two Perspectives on Demographic Changes in the States Ahead of the 2020 Presidential Election. New York: Bipartisan Policy Center Brookings Institution Center For American Progress Democracy Fund
Griffin, R., Frey, W.H. & Teixeira, R. (2019). States of Change How Demographic Change Is Transforming the Republican and Democratic Parties. Retrieved from <https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2019/06/27/471487/states- of-change-3/>
Huerta, J. C. & Cuarta, B. (2018). Is Texas finally turning blue? We looked at the electorate to find out. Retrieved from <https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey- cage/wp/2018/12/18/are-texas-demographics-finally-turning-the-state-blue-we-looked- at-the-electorate-to-find-out/>
