Demographic transition model is a measure of how the population changes over a given period in relation to birth rates and death rates. This model describes death rates and birth rates based on how their ultimate impacts affect the country’s total population. Precisely, demographers developed the model to depict the changing pattern of mortality, fertility, and rates of growth based on the transition from one demographic regime to the next among societies (Hopfenberg, 2014). Additionally, the model describes how the population growth of a country compares with its economic development over time. The model consists of various stages each of which relates to the aforesaid birth rates and death rates. It depicts that a country can only progress from its original position to the next if both social and economic forces act on the birth and death rates (Hopfenberg, 2014). Therefore, all countries can fall into the Demographic Transition Model though not in every stage because those countries may lack specific elements that meet the stage. For instance, the model has not recorded any country in stage one nor has it recorded any in stage 5 though future anticipations predict that there will be countries that meet those stages. Stage one involves a situation in which the birth rates and death rates are equally high and this leads to a fairly constant population. Death rates equal birth rates though this can swing significantly due to war or pandemic. This is called pre-transition because even though the total population is low, it is fairly balanced; and was experienced before the industrial revolution. Again, stage 2 is characterized by reduced child death mortality with increased birth rates and rapid population growth in the long run. Such a situation is associated with the advent of new medication technologies, especially in third-world countries. It was first realized immediately after the industrial revolution when the Crude Death Rates declined though the Crude Birth Rates remained constant (Hopfenberg, 2014). In stage 3, however, the birth rates usually decrease significantly. Population growth takes place though at a very slower pace known as deceleration. Most developing countries are found in stage three of the DTM. Stage 4 is characterized by low birth rates and low death rates that eventually stabilize the population (Hopfenberg, 2014). This is most evidenced in developed countries due to a number of factors described below. Stronger economies and attainment of higher educational levels are responsible for stage four of the DTM. Other factors may also include improved healthcare and a greater proportion of working-class women that maintain a fertility rate of around two children per woman. Stronger economies assure the population of food availability and financial security which leads to the need for less number of children to work for farming mechanization (Hopfenberg, 2014). Again, improved healthcare curtails infant mortality and maintains healthier living standards among the elderly; thus, a stable population. Similarly, the improved economic status increased the statuses of women, and the invention of contraception is responsible for stage 3 demographic changes. Further, improved healthcare and sanitation in a country result in stage two transitions through factors leading to stage one including less unpredictable food availability, and diseases like plague, wars, and poor living conditions like insufficient sewerage. Most developed countries like the UK have access to sufficient food with only 26% of the population that skip meals. However, developing countries have less access to food security with Birmingham recording approximately 47% of children wallowing in poverty and hunger (Nyambayo, 2015). Such developing countries have charitable organizational programs like food banks that ensure food security and provide long-term improved health. Hence, the programs reduce household vulnerability and promote access to food (Nyambayo, 2015).
References
Hopfenberg, R. (2014). An Expansion of the Demographic Transition Model: The Dynamic Link between Agricultural Productivity and Population. Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences , Duke University Press. Retrieved from https://mahb.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/An_expansion_of_the_demographic_transition_model-libre.pdf
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Nyambayo, I. (2015). Food Security In Developed Countries (Europe and USA) – Is It Insecurity and Insufficiency or Hunger and Poverty in Developed Countries? BAOJ Nutrition 1: 001. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284716394_Food_Security_In_Developed_Countries_Europe_And_USA_-_Is_It_Insecurity_And_Insufficiency_Or_Hunger_And_Poverty_In_Developed_Countries
