The Outcome of the Nevada Senate Race

The United States Senate election in Nevada is set to take place on November 6, 2018, pitting the incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller against Democrat challenger Jacky Rosen, who is a 1st term congresswoman from the 3rd congressional district in Nevada. This battle for the Senate position in Nevada will be one of the most watched and most financed due to its significance in partisan politics. Nevada is a significant battleground for Democrats seeking to pick up a Senate seat and end the two-decade Republican’s stronghold. As such, the race is seen as the best opportunity for the Democratic Party to take place from the Republican Party ( Harry 2018) . The Democrats regard this election as their best chance to flip a Senate seat while Republicans will look to keep their Senate majority of they stop Democrats from gaining two seats in the chamber.

The prediction for this election is for the outcome to predict a recount since the initial vote tally of the election will be extremely close. There is a high possibility of outcome recount after the voting due to less than one percent difference between the candidates in the vote count. Since Nevada does not have automatic recounts system, anyone can request for a recount after an election.

Candidates’ Profile 

The race is between incumbent Dean Heller who is looking for re-election to a second full term after being elected in 2011. Heller is vying on a Republican ticket had won the Nevada Republican Primary Election by 69.9 percent against four other candidates ( Ballotpedia 2018) . Heller who is an incumbent US senator since 2011 started his political career serving as a Nevada state assemblyman in 1990 before serving as Nevada secretary of state between 1995 and 2007. He then vied and worked as a U.S representative from 2007 to 2011. Heller earned his bachelor’s degree in business administration from the University of Southern California with specialization in finance and securities analysis. He grew up in Carson City as a son of an automatic and school cook. He learned the importance of hard work, discipline, and commitment by working with his father while in middle school. In his term as a senator, Heller authored over 100 legislation including bills to protect military veterans, prevent human trafficking or violence against women, reduce taxes as well as amend the second amendment rights.

On the other hand, his opponent is Jacky Rosen who will be vying for the Senatorial race on a democrat ticket having won the Nevada Democratic Primary election by 77 percent of the votes against five other candidates ( Ballotpedia 2018) . Rosen is a B.A graduate from the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, and has worked as a computer programmer, software developer and designer. At the same time, her biography entails serving as the president of Congregation Ner Tamid synagogue, the state’s largest temple. Jacky Rosen is a granddaughter of immigrants and has lived in Nevada for over 40 years, growing up in a working-class family. After graduation, she was also working as a banquet waitress over the weekends to help in paying her bills. Rosen boasts of breaking barriers in the male-dominated tech industry by working for major corporations in Nevada. After several years of working, she had to step aside and take care of her parents and in-laws after they got older and developed health problems. Jacky claims she ran for Congress in the third district of Nevada due to her desire to create a difference in her community and wants the Senate seat to continue helping families in Nevada.

Apart from the two, other three candidates are running in the general elections to represent Nevada in the United States Senate. The three are Kamau Bakari of the Independent American Party, Barry Michaels who is vying as an independent candidate and Tim Hagan who is a libertarian. Richard Charles did not make the ballot list after competing as an independent candidate ( Ballotpedia 2018) . Neither of these candidates is involved in a scandal that could taint their image or reputation in the eyes of the electorates. Jacky Rosen is endorsed by several Democrat Leaders including Barack Obama and Joe Biden while Donald Trump and Mike Pence recommend Dean Heller.

State demographics 

Nevada is located west of the United States bordering Oregon, Idaho, California, Arizona, and Utah.. As of 2016, the three largest cities in Nevada were Las Vegas, Henderson, and Reno. Nevada has a population of 2.9 million people with an almost equal gender basis of 49.7 percent female and 51.3 percent of men. The population of Nevada has been experiencing a natural increase since the 2010 census due to net immigration and increased birth rates. The 2016 poll shows that Nevada is now majority-minority joining the likes of California, Texas and New Mexico ( Balentine and Webster 2018) . The race demographics in the state of Nevada comprises of white, African Americans, Native Americans, Asian, Pacific Islander, Hispanic and individuals from two or more races. The white appears to be a dominant race in the state comprising 69 percent of the total population followed by the Hispanic that makes up 28 percent of the population. The rest of the citizens are divided up between blacks at 8.4 percent, Asian at 7.7 percent, Native Americans at 1.1 percent and individuals of two or more races at 4.4 percent.

There has been an increase in diversity in the state that has seen more of the minority groups lining up for voting. However, the massive growth in the southern part of Nevada has led to a noticeable divide between northern and southern politics in the state. The south has a larger population, but the northern region has been controlling critical positions in government ( Frey 2018) . A small percentage of the population lives in rural areas with the majority settling in urban and suburban centers in the metropolitan areas. The median household income in Nevada is $53, 094 inflation-adjusted dollars. The census also showed that the state has about 1.2 million housing units according to the US Census Bureau.

Election History in Nevada 

Historically, Nevada has been a Republican state with the more rural counties in the north being the most conservative. The state is 1.2 percent more Republican-leaning than the country overall based on how the state voted in the 2016 presidential and state elections election ( Balentine and Webster 2018) . The state’s capital of Carson City has been Republican-leaning County as well as the Washoe country home of Reno city. However, recently there have been changes in political alignment with Reno becoming more of a Democratic-leaning swing county as well as Clark country home of Las Vegas. About two-thirds of the 2.9 Nevada’s population resides in democratic strongholds of Las Vegas and Reno that have dominated the state’s politics and will play a significant role in the Senate election race ( Damore and Rebecca 2018) . The eligible voters to cast a ballot in the elections are estimated at 1.92 million with a forecasted turnout of 923, 000 people.

Nevada was once considered a swing state that leaned slightly rightward as seen with twice voting for Gorge W. Bush. However, this position changed from 2012 when the population gave Obama of Democrat a seven-point victory while at the same time voting for Dean Heller of Republican Party. In 2012, Heller won by 1.2 percentage points in an open-seat race, and that was the only time that Republicans had a more significant percentage ( Damore and Rebecca 2018) . Since then, Nevada has become a bit more, and the victory margin of Heller will be adjusted based on this basis. In the last three presidential elections, Nevada has been aligned to the Democrat party and voting for Democrat candidates. Today, a large number of non-white voters in the state are overwhelmingly Democratic and are becoming a large portion of the electorate. As of October 2017, a Democratic number of voters comprise of 38.8 percent compared to 32.8 percent of Republicans while nonpartisans make up 21.7 percent of the total registered voters ( Balentine and Webster 2018) .

Partisan control 

The 2016 general elections resulted in having a Republican and Democrat within the U.S Senate seat in Nevada. However, in the U.S House seats in Nevada, Democrats hold three of the four positions with the Republicans holding just one. The Democrats also control both chambers of the Nevada State Legislature with a 27-14 majority in the state assembly and 10-8 majority in the state senate ( Ehsan, 2017) . On the other hand, Republicans held six of the state executive positions as of September 2018 with the remaining spots being officially nonpartisan.

‘ None of these candidates’ option 

At the same time, Nevada is the only state in the United States to have a ‘none of these candidates’ option on the ballots designed for voters who are against all the candidates on the ballot. This option was made in 1975 giving voters an opportunity to officially cast a vote for no one as a way of encouraging people to vote. Officials believed giving voters an opportunity to voice their dissent on the ballot could inspire more people to show up at the polling station. This option has been a consistent candidate on the ballot, winning a few elections such as the 2014 democratic governor candidates in Nevada ( Sullivan 2012) .

Election Campaigns 

This race for United States Senate in Nevada has seen candidates spending a lot of money in campaigns. Most of the cash is being spent on operating expenditures that include Advertising, fundraising, travel, personnel equipment, overhead administration, and rent. Jacky Rosen has spent a considerable amount of money on campaigns with funding coming mostly from fundraising and use of interest groups. The fundraising comes from individual contribution, 70 percent of which came from major party candidates. By September 2016, Jacky Rosen had received a total of $16.4 million in receipts and used $13.8 million in disbursements. He had $2.6 million cash in hand ( Ballotpedia 2018) .

On the other hand, Heller had also raised a substantial amount through fundraising, raising about $13.1 million and using approximately $10.6 million in disbursement as of September 30, 2018. His major funder is billionaire casino mogul and mega-donor Sheldon Adelson. For example, the billionaire awarded Heller with individual contributions seen as rewards for opposing Iran nuclear deal in the Senate. Donald Trump has also made a state visit for the Make America Great Again rally where he showed support for Heller through conducting a fundraiser ( Shaw 2018) .

However, apart from the candidates, outside groups are also spending a considerable amount of money in support and opposition of the candidates. The outside interest groups have raised about $17 million, For instance, an outside group conducting a campaign to support the incumbent Dean Heller has spent approximately $745 thousands while the group supporting Jacky Rosen has paid $107 thousand ( Ballotpedia 2018) . A comparison of expenditure shows that the main focus of these interest groups is negative campaigns against the opponent rather than positive campaigns for their candidates. For example, a group opposing Deal Heller has spent $9.3 million in advertisements while a group fighting Rosen has spent $2.7 million for the same reasons.

Advertising Battles 

The candidates have also spent much of their expenses on advertising using both mainstream media and social media platforms. The teams have been releasing video announcements for TV and YouTube, with Jacky Rosen releasing 40 video announcements while Dean Heller is releasing a total of 65 video announcements for campaigns. The central theme of these advertising videos revolves around been independent and bipartisan as well as policy topics of education, immigration, healthcare, taxes, and gun safety. Healthcare was one of the top issues in Nevada senatorial elections ranking through most of the campaigns. However, Bret Kavanaugh nomination to the Supreme court also caused a sharp divide between the two candidates and the voters based on who they were supporting. For example, Heller drew national media attention when he said the assault allegations leveled against Kavanaugh were just a hiccup in his rise to the court. This led to Rosen running ads attacking the senator for his position.

Republican’s Dean Heller has released 65 video advertisements for TV and social media trying to persuade electorates while pinning down their opponents respectfully. For example, he is presenting himself as someone who has gotten things done as opposed to Rosen who has not passed a single piece of legislation before running for the Senate. Heller is also presenting himself as a candidate who has moved close to 100 pieces of legislation including his record on veteran issues where he has passed 40 pieces of law in the Senate, seeking to help veterans in the state. He also claims to be bipartisan candidate who has worked across party lines.

Jacky Rosen of the Democratic party has also released 40 video advertisements for TV and social media. In her campaigns, Rosen talks about her background including rising from the ashes to appeal to the middle class as someone who would understands the striges and will work to better their opportunities. At the same time, Rosen says she is among the most bipartisan members of the House including being a member of the problem solvers caucus, which she claims is a bipartisan house caucus. Furthermore, Jacky Rosen’s advertisements have shown the Democratic push for health care issues such as developing legislation to deliver on lowering health care costs and prices of prescription drugs.

Both candidates have imitated the campaign strategy used by Donald Trump that entails name-calling. The two have been exchanging accusations by running commercials focusing on the record of each candidate and their previous associations. For example, Deal Heller used Twitter to criticize Rosen for her support for the Iran deal, an action that led to retaliation from Rosen who referred to these attacks as false, pathetic and offensive. Jacky Rosen has been referring to Dean Heller as “The Spineless Senator” due to his flip-flopping on health care vote. Heller had initially criticized efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act saying it would harm citizens, but he ended up voting to support the repeal legislation. He reportedly changed his position after heavy pressure from his fundraisers. Rosen also presents claims that Heller voted for the policies of Donald Trump including voting for the repeal bill of Obama care due to pressure from his party ( Stahl 2017) .

Poll results 

The surveys and polls on this Nevada senate race have been going back and forth between Heller and Rosen. The most recent poll conducted by Emerson College puts the incumbent up by seven percentage points at 48 percent over Jacky Rosen at 41 percent using 625 voters. On another opinion poll by Ipsos, Jacky Rosen appears to have an edge with 34 percent over Heller with 33 percent using 1914 adults ( Newburger 2018) . Other opinion polls have also seen a neck-on-neck race between the two candidates with Rosen 42 percent over 41 percent of Heller, Rosen 45 percent over 45 people of Heller and Rosen 43 percent over 46 percent of Heller ( Newburger 2018) . The incumbent Dean Heller was taking just 40 percent of the polling showing that he is not in good shape going to the ballot. Although the polls are showing Heller pulling slightly ahead, Nevada has been trending blue which is shaping up to be a bad year for all Republicans in general, as well as in states with substantial suburban and Hispanic populations such as Nevada. An incumbent getting less than 45 percent in the polls is in serious trouble ( Saunders 2018) . However, Heller’s skills show that the race is a Toss-Up.

Prediction of the Election Results 

None of these candidates stands a clear chance to win in the first count of the votes as they have neck-to-neck competition. Dean Heller of the Republican has three in five chances of winning the elections with a forecasted vote share of 49 while Jacky Rosen of Democrats has two in five chance of winning with a forecasted vote share of 48. Other candidates have one in 100 chance of winning with a forecasted vote share of 2 percent. Among Republicans, Heller leads Rosen by 90 percent to 5 percent, while Rosen has an advantage among the Democrats, leading Heller by 89 percent to 8 percent ( Ballotpedia 2018) . Heller also has majority support from men, white voters, and independents while Rosen has support from Latino voters and women supporters.

Due to the consistent swing nature of Nevada, it is difficult to predict the outcome of this United States Senate election accurately. This swing nature, however, makes the incumbent Heller the most vulnerable Republican Senator up for re-election as he is running in a state that Hilary Clinton won in 2016 ( Caldwell 2017) . Dean Heller is the most vulnerable incumbent going into the midterm elections based on his narrow and treacherous political path to history. He narrowly won the 2012 senatorial elections and was again lucky to win the primaries after his primary challenger Danny Tarkanian stepped down for his seat, going against Rosen who won an open seat in a swing district in 2016 ( Damore and Rebecca 2018) .

In this re-election, he faces a substantial challenge to retain the position due to the shifting demographic changes in Nevada that give Rosen an upper hand in the election ( Balentine and Webster 2018) . The large Latino population voting block that is mostly Democratic puts Jacky Rosen at an upper hand. With this growing Latino population and blue cities, Democrats have high chances of winning if they come out in large numbers to votes. The state’s overall electorate seems to lean towards Democrat and an overall outcome on the election date can mean this election may not go for a recount.

At the same time, Heller has failed to attract enough support from an increasingly conservative Nevada GOP base, and his association with President Trump’s policies may be his downfall. More than half of the state polling disapprove Trump’s plans and may vote for the Democrat candidate ( Blocher and Miller 2018) . One factor giving Rosen the edge is the anti-Trump female vote where about 52 percent of women in Nevada see to support her after the president derisively named her Wacky Jacky. On the other hand, only 38 percent of women seem to back Heller for the re-election. Rosen used Heller’s unswerving support of Trump in raging confirmation battle such as the issue of Bret Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court. Heller had dismissed the sexual assault allegations leveled against Kavanaugh and Rosen slammed these remarks as shameful and out of touch.

However, the shift among white voters towards the Republican Party in Nevada may give Heller some chance for re-election. At the same time, Heller has been campaigning against the Cadillac tax of the Affordable Care Act which is scheduled to take effect in 2020. This is a high-cost plan tax that contains a 40 percent excise tax on any employer plans that exceed $10, 200 in premiums per year for employees and $27,500 for families ( Blocher and Miller 2018) . This stand can work in favor of Heller as more people are against increased taxes.

Conclusion 

In conclusion, A Rosen victory in this race would be one of the upsets by a political newcomer against a veteran heavyweight and incumbent. However, the results of this United States Senate election in Nevada are more likely to go for a recount based on the margin of victory that will emerge from the elections. A recount is triggered in a close contest if a candidate wins by not more than 0.5 percent of the votes, unless the defeated candidate submits a waiver. The recent polls have shown a more balanced vote than many would expect with the candidates having close votes with a margin of less than one. If the same trend is replicated on the voting day, then there is a more possibility of a vote recount. On the other hand, the probabilistic nature of social scientific research and the constraints of available information may limit the predictions. This prediction has been based on opinion polls using a small percentage of the population as a sample. These polls may not accurately project the actual voting pattern of electorates. At the same time, the prediction has made assumptions that all Democrats will vote for Rosen and all Republicans will vote for Heller, which is a limitation in getting accurate results.

References

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Newburger, Emma.2018. "GOP Sen. Heller Has Narrow Edge in Nevada Senate Race over Democrat Rosen: NBC News/Marist Poll." CNBC. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/09/dean-heller-leads-jacky-rosen-in-nevada-senate-race-poll-says.html . 

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