The anarchic nature of the world allows for countries to deal with situations in the best way they see possible provided their approach is not in violation of international laws, or continental/regional treaties. For instance, in Europe, member states are subjected to certain laws which govern their interaction. In recent news, there has been ongoing conflicts between Taiwan, an island officially known as the Republic of China (ROC), and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) which considers the island as part of its own. Differing political and leadership views have, to some extent, let to the emergence of a state of uncertainty whereby it is not clear whether war will ensue. The likelihood of war is further enhanced by the fact that the United States decided to sell Taiwan war jets worth $8 billion, a move which could prompt adversary action from mainland China. Using both deterrence and spiral model perspectives, there is likely to be a decrease in the likelihood of war between Taiwan and China.
A deeper understanding of the issue between Taiwan and China requires a look at, first, the assumptions of deterrence model perspective. The deterrence theory approach explains that a party or state can use reprisal or threat to dissuade an adversary from taking any action such as a military attack. In the case at hand, the United States sold F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan worth $8 billion. It should be noted that the sale is one of the largest between the U.S. and Taiwan. Further, the sale of the fighter jets comes at a time when Taiwan and China are experiencing leadership differences thereby intensifying their relations. To put the issue into context, China’s president, Xi Jingping is said to be losing patience as Taiwan remains defiant; he fears that Taiwan’s adamant position as a self-governing state rebuffs China’s reunification scheme which Jingping refers to as a “one country, two systems” model. The increasing tension from China has pushed Taiwan to act which explains the purchase of fighter jets. Notably, China has been investing in advanced military capabilities which has led to increasing security concerns in Taiwan. However, the likelihood of China to attack Taiwan following island’s recent relations with the U.S. are likely to deter Jingping and his government from attacking. The underlying reason is that Taiwan’s ability to defend its airspace is a key deciding factor in respect to military conflict. The acquisition of fighter jets is evidence enough of Taiwan’s move to ensure national security. Therefore, it is unlikely that with Taiwan’s recent acquisition, China will seek to wage war against a country that has reinforced its capacity for airspace defense. In this case, the deterrence model validates the argument that Taiwan’s acquisition of fighter will likely decrease the intensity for war with China.
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While an enhancement of Taiwan’s airspace defense would undermine China’s intentions to attack, an application of the spiral model perspective would imply otherwise. Descriptively, the spiral model is mainly rooted in the concept of anarchy whereby a country can increase its military strength or establish alliances thereby prompting other countries to adopt similar measures. Consequently, there will be an increase in tension being that all states that are in conflict have acquired measures to safeguard themselves against an attack even when neither side wants to participate in a war. As expressed in news media, mainland China has rather staunch demands regarding Taiwan with respect to governance. Taiwan is perceived as an inalienable part of China and that Beijing strengthens its argument quoting a 1992 agreement between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Kuomintang (KMT) political party which was Taiwan’s ruling party. The understanding emphasizes that there is only one China which tends to disqualify Taiwan’s acquired sovereignty. The desire to acquire Taiwan is rather explicitly especially when one looks at the various messages put forth by President Jingping. For instance, Jingping is pushing for a world-class military which is targeted at completing the country’s national defense and modernization of the army. When pitted against Taiwan’s desire to remain an independent state, China is likely at the brink of declaring war against the island. In the global sphere, it is not quite clear the extent of effect of the rise of China with respect to international relations. However, from a standard realist point of view, there are concerns that China’s strength will act as a motivator to pursue its interests more assertively hence the likelihood of war.
Advancing the discussion further, the argument for the likelihood of war inclines towards China’s military advancement which has intensified the country’s national defense. An application of the spiral model demonstrates that China might retaliate against Taiwan in pursuit of the “One China” principle. However, there is a major risk in retaliation owing to the fact that the U.S. is involved with Taiwan. The sale of fighter jets has already had considerable impact on U.S.-China relations. In particular, the move has soared the relations between the U.S. and China during a time when “… a long-running trade war between Washington and Beijing has upended relations between the world’s two largest economies and contributed to stock market turmoil”. In that regard, it is unlikely that China would wish to put more damage through attacking Taiwan which is already in good relations with a key rival, the U.S. There is a rather thin line with respect to relations between Taiwan and China. However, the participation of the U.S. especially in Asia appears to impose some kind of balance. The available choices are either accommodation or military competition as in the case of Taiwan’s historic purchase, and Jingping’s model of a world-class military. A critical assessment of the potential benefits and losses between the two countries demonstrates that China stands to lose more. For that reason, the deterrence model appears accurate in projecting that China will not seek military conflict with Taiwan.
Conclusion
The rather delicate relations between China and Taiwan are likely to cause unrest in various sectors. However, at the moment, the likelihood of military conflict is rather minimal owing to the fact that China stands to lose more than Taiwan. While in pursuit of a superpower position in the international arena, a war would only prove detrimental to such a vibrant course. Therefore, assessing China’s position in the context of its place in the global sphere, a conflict with Taiwan is most unlikely to occur.
References
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Hass, R. (2019, July 1). Rightsizing fears about Taiwan’s future. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/rightsizing-fears-about-taiwans-future/
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Wong, E. (2019, April 16). Trump administration approves F-16 fighter jet sales to Taiwan. The New York Times . Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/16/world/asia/taiwan-f16.html
