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THIRA STEP 1 |
THIRA STEP 2 |
THIRA STEP 3 |
THIRA STEP 4 |
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| Risk Item | Definition | Priority | Context | Analysis | Capability Need | Mission Area | Success Metric | Outcome | Resource Needed | ||
| Risk 1 – detonation of the primer cord. | Creation of a hole in the chlorine tank releasing chlorine to the air to vaporize and producing other secondary risks |
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Denotation leads to leakage of Chlorine gas. The gas vaporizes and reacts with air which enhances the gas to spread faster. | The gas spreads faster due to the weather conditions. | Looking into risk detection mechanisms to avoid future damage and loss. Installing an effective system for early detection to avoid damage. | Preparation and prevention |
Timely detection of The gas leak. 15 minutes |
Neutralization of the gas. Within a mile radius within the 6 hours after response. | Chlorine gas detectors that an alarm system. chlorine neutralizing agents employed. |
| Freezes other items along the way as the vapor spreads and affects people in the vicinity by casing itching skin and burning eyes among other negative effects. |
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Chlorine vapor reacts explosively with air. Chlorine is much heavier than other gases and tends to stay near the ground. Chlorine gas is faster in air and led to approximately 127,000 causalities and metal corrosion on property | Exposure of chlorine liquid to air causes it to change to gas and therefore spreads faster and reactively. | Invest in adequate measures to reduce chlorine spread. Provide quick access to healthcare for affected population. | Response and mitigation. |
Timely evacuation of people and animals in the affected arears. Neutralization of the chlorine compounds |
80% neutralization of harmful chlorine compounds. |
Water supply to dilute the chlorine compounds into less harmful state. Water sprinklers. Firefighting equipment. |
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| Chlorine reacts with other compounds at the plant which may react explosively hurting people and damaging property within a few miles radius of the reactions. |
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When chlorine is exposed to air it reacts with some components which forms explosive compounds such as ammonia. This compounds are dangerous to human some causes irritation of the skin. | The explosive nature of the chlorine gas and formation of explosive components is the root cause of the destruction. | Implement chlorine containment mechanisms in case of leak. | Prevention. | Saving plants from corrosive effects of chlorine. 100% evacuation | Neutralizing harmful chlorine compounds from the plants and their leaves and soil surrounding | Soil test equipment. Controlled supply of water that wash away dissolves chlorine compounds and wash away. | |
| Pressure from blast destroys the infrastructure and incapacitates vehicles and people in the vicinity and depending on the components, may cause casualties at distances further from the vicinity. |
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The IED are timed to go off in 30 minutes. The device activates and blast off leaving behind a 16-inch hole. This releases the gas and the gas freezes everything it touches. | IED detonation is the main cause of Chlorine gas escaping into the air. The smell of chlorine gas in is a source of detection. | Institute safe distance for parking and specify safe zones within the plant. | Prevention and mitigation. | 100% rescuing, and possible prevention plans |
Structures installed withstanding the pressure from the blast. Preventing them from reaching settlements. Structures withstanding blast pressures |
Think concrete walls withstanding the pressure. Policies ensuring that all the building meet the standard requirement. Stand by response team | |
| Exposure of chlorine to waterways causes the formation of hydrochloric acid making it safe for use and consumption together with erosion of water paths such as water pipes |
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Chlorine gas reacts with water to form hydrochloric acid. This is a corrosive acid therefore destroys the metallic water pipes. | Large water bodies are not easy to neutralize once contaminated. | Minimal exposure to water through creating different water ways away from chlorine zones. | Prevention. | Timely detection. 15 minutes after infection. | 90% neutralization od the waters | PH detectors installed in the waters. They send data automatically to a detection system. computerized detection system. | |
| at the site of the explosion, the people closest to the vicinity may panic and disrupt evacuation and even slow it down and in the process sustain more injuries |
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Due to explosions, several people get afraid and starts to evacuate the area due to fear of the exposure. This slows down the evacuation process. | People who refused to stay indoors are the one who got exposed and leads to rise in causalities. | Institute safety procedures for chlorine leaks. Perform regular drills to inculcate culture. | Prevention. | Smooth transition of the evacuation process | 100% evacuation, with minimum casualties. | Policies that guide the evacuation process. people made aware of the policies, in the event of the occurrence they know what to do. | |
| IEDs are meant to incapacitate people as well as vehicles, yet these are the objects used in evacuation. When people are incapacitated, they cannot be rescued hence they die or get major injuries. |
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Explosion of some IEDs leads to the battalion fire chief to call of the investigation and also the blast destroys some emergency vehicles. This are the people who help in dangerous situations as this and the vehicles are used in evacuations. | Failure to detect the IEDs which blows and causes an increase in number of causalities. | Early IED detection systems in place. | Prevention. | 100% awareness of the policies. | Minimum casualties. | Public sensitization. On policy adherence and awareness. Civic education. Drills | |
| The presence of wind or rain may maximize the exposure of surfaces and individuals to chlorine gas and hydrochloric acid which forms as a result of contact with water. The Wind is air and may combine with chlorine to spread over larger distances. |
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Wind increases the spread rate of the chlorine gas. Also, the rain water reacts with chlorine to form acidic rainfall. | The extreme weather conditions is the root cause for the spread of the chlorine gas. | Create artificial safe measures, such as addition of water to prevent spread through water as opposed to air. | Prevention. | Involvement of weather department in managing evacuation process. | Proprieties evacuation of the residences in the direction the wind is headed. | Local authority involvement. Flight redirection and employment of helicopters in evacuation process. | |
| Chlorine is not flammable, but in contact with some compounds, such a large amount of chlorine can cause the biggest fires which kill people and damage property |
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Chlorine gas only reacts when exposed into air in large quantity and becomes flammable. | The fire outbreaks is from the blast of the IEDs. |
Remove flammable substances within chlorine areas. Install fire extinguishers. |
Prevention and mitigation. | Minimum fire cases | No casualties that are attributed to fire related incidences from the blast. | Fire emergency response on standby. | |
| The blasts from IEDs can cause destruction of infrastructure hence flying debris may hurt or injure the people in the vicinity or damage more property |
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The blast causes casualties especially to those who were within the ranges of the blast. The blast also destroyed some properties such as the vehicles. | Main cause of causality is the blast from IEDs and also the exposure of chlorine gas. The time the attack is another element that caused high causalities, because most people were indoors. | Ensure quick exit during chlorine to reduce casualties. | Response. | Minimum casualties from the debris | People to remain in their areas of residence within the first 30 minute of the blast. | The local authority, informing the residents to seek shelter. | |
| Effects of combined IED blasts and chlorine reactions cause people to evacuate their residences o safer havens |
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The exposure of chlorine gas and its elements and IEDs blast led to people to be displaced. Continue exposure have its repercussions. | Reaction of chlorine gas on human skin and eyes are the main cause for evacuation. |
Provide safe houses for the purpose of chlorine exposure and leaks. Establish methods of environmental recovery. |
Recovery. | Timely and 100% evacuation. | Zero infection of the residents that live in the surrounding. | Emergency protocol education on response. | |
| Use of primer cords and IEDs may create holes or spaces in other storage devices at the storage plant hence leading to leakage of chlorine hence greater exposure and effects |
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The IEDs blast caused the tanks to have holes which led to leakage of the chlorine gas. | Main cause of leakage is the explosion of the IEDs. | Install IED explosion detection systems to alert engineers early. | Prevention. | Controlled opening and closing of the valves | The blast does not affect the other storage tanks, from the valves | Assimilation plans to correct the valves. Frequent inspections | |
| the unknown nature and magnitude of the attack makes it hard for the first respondents to escape impromptu events such as the HAZMAT team having an IED explode in their vicinity |
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When HAZMAT team arrives they encounter and explosion from the timed IEDs. This led to the battalion chief to call off the investigation. | The main cause of causalities is explosion of one of the IEDs. | Implement system for early detection of possible IED s and suspected sites. | Preparation and response. | Installation of specific alarm triggers | Timely response and understanding of the nature and magnitude of the blast on time |
Alarm equipment, unique to every emergency. Specialized support |
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| Chlorine exposure causes burning eyes, itching skin, blisters and redness and exposure over a large area means a higher number of casualties |
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Due to high spread of chlorine gas, the number of causalities is high for this gas come in contact with more people. Therefore, the number of exposed persons increases and needs more medical attention. | Main cause is the fast spread of the gas. | Implement spread reduction mechanisms such as chemical neutralization techniques. | Prevention and response, mitigation. |
Minimum casualties. Availability of equipment such as googles and air reactivators |
Successful evacuation with little disruptions | Water systems at every point, such that in the event of such an occurrence, abundant supply of the emergency equipment | |
| Evacuation processes involve evacuating people from the storage plant and the areas around it, and since the event is unexpected it may take longer to get back up of effectively evacuate the victims |
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As the speed of wind increased, more people get exposed and therefore there is need of more evacuation facilities. | The pressure results from fast spreading of the chlorine gas. | Implement evacuation protocol. Have regular evacuation drills. | Response, mitigation and preparation. | Timely detection and 100% evacuation | The evacuation should be immediate and smooth regardless of the ambush | Effective evacuation policies. Staff awareness of the policies. Guidelines to evacuation at every fire point | |
| Exposed chlorine freezes all it touches such that other danger detectors and machines are not functional. The people in the control room cannot assess the situation to discern appropriate action |
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Anything that chlorine gas in contacts with freezes. That includes the detections system which becomes multifunctional. | The corrosive nature of chlorine causes the systems to fail. | Quick evacuation to avoid system failures. | Prevention, response and mitigation. | Timely detection. | Emergency response on detection. 100% evacuation | Reinforced control rooms, with observation units. Frequent inspection of the systems | |
| Since chlorine is a gas, its exposure cannot be contained leading to scenarios where people may be exposed to a long term and develop medical complications |
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When inhaled, chlorine gas causes lung damages. Those injured recovers within seven days. | Lung problem is caused by inhalation of high volume of chlorine gas. |
Training on chlorine gas exposure and safety practice. Availability of medical care. |
Mitigation and response. | Minimum casualties | Immediate and proactive measures to prevent long term complications | Research on possible medical complication. Chlorine medical experts | |
| Chlorine gas in contact with human skin produces reactions such as redness, rashes, blisters, and itching. |
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Exposure of chlorine gas causes irritation on the skin, rashes and blisters. | This is due to acidic nature of the chlorine gas. | Provide immediate access to healthcare for exposed individuals. | Mitigation and response. | Timely response | Successful, management of the casualties and timely medical response | Stand by the medical team. Working medical equipment, positioned at strategic locations | |
| Such attacks are caused by terror groups and similar associations thus their success is a motivation for other attacks making places insecure |
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Insecurity arises due to terror attacks. These people find ways of causing causalities so as to make the headlight news. | Main cause of the attack is to make the highlight of the news. |
Insert sufficient security systems to prevent attack. Deal with attackers to the full force of the law. |
Prevention and recovery. | Ensuring that this is a onetime occurrence. | The perpetrators are arrested and subjected to law. | Anti-terror police, thorough investigation. To establish the perpetrator | |
| There are millions of dollars lost regarding treatment of the casualties, investigations into the attack and rebuilding of the plant if possible. |
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Many properties including the chlorine plant, evacuation equipment and vehicles are destroyed by the blast. | Main cause of destruction is the blast from the IEDs. | Invest in sufficient resources, both in human and material resources, to prevent or respond quickly to such an attack. | Prevention, mitigation, response. | Complete compensation of casualties and the company brought back to its feet | Compensation. The company rebuilt. | Government involvement, policy makers and insurance practitioners | |
References
List, T. C. (2007). A companion to the national preparedness guidelines. US Department of Homeland Security .
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Kahan, J. H. (2014). Preparedness Revisited: W (h) ither PPD-8. Homeland Security Affairs , 10 .
