A Look into the 2020 Election

Introduction 

The 2016 presidential elections was a significant event in the history of America and for Trump and the Republicans. This history will be repeated in the 2020 presidential elections. It is a question among many and the interest of great politicians, both republic and Democrats and independent candidates, whether the trump administration will come in a second term. The contest is heated even now. Several factors such as electoral landscape, financial laws, and cases, media, midterm elections, political polarization, and cold-eyed perspective directed at trump's prospects and the challenges and opportunities he has will influence the outcome of the election. 

The Financial Picture as Shaped by Current Law 

The election laws prohibit any expenditure that may result in influencing the direction of election (Savage & Vogel, 2018). This extends to any form of bribing during campaigns and other personal life matters covered in the law. The campaign and election of Bill Clinton were nearly thwarted by the allegations that he had had an affair with an ex-lounge singer Gennifer Flowers (Freedland, 2018). This event occurred at a period in history when the law did not lay strict emphasis as it is today and neither was there a tangible or any evidence suggesting that he had paid Flowers to keep silent with the matter. Trump's case is entirely different from that of Clinton since there is available tape evidence, which demonstrates that Trump and his lawyer Michael Cohen had the conversation to pay Karen McDougal to keep silent on an extramarital affair she had with Trump (Freedland, 2018). A section of the conversation was in the following manner: “ ’We’ll have to pay,’ Cohen says. Trump’s reply: ‘Pay with cash’ ” (Freedland, 2018). Another case involves the payment of $130,000 to Stephanie Clifford. The law requires contestants disclose every amount they spend in donation and funding of their campaigns during this period. The donations are capped at $2,700 (Savage & Vogel, 2018). Trump’s expenditure was done before the 2016 elections and revelation of the acts could have stopped his presidential race. This case can impede his reelection campaign now that it is in the public domain especially that such matters are seriously considered . 

The Role of the Media 

The media social, television, and print media have a great impact in determining the political bearing of the people. Trump has made large use of the social media particularly Twitter to promote his political agenda, advertise his development track and attack the television media as well as his opponents, the Democrats. His use of Twitter is evident in his advances to have the democrats help in passing the construction of a wall at the southern border to control what he calls "illegal immigration." The image below is extracted from the Twitter , and it illustrates some of the reasons, he would want the public to understand, for the construction of the border wall. He mentions illegal aliens apprehended at the border and fentanyl smuggling at the port. 

Figure 1: immigration and drugs. Source: Twitter 2019. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump 

This platform provides him an opportunity that he would otherwise not have to reach the people and shape their perception with information that may be facts or his construed stories.

Boxell, Gentzkov, and Shapiro (2017) note that " If any media platform is to blame, it is not the web. It is more likely television, which is a more important source of political information.” The role played by television is significant as it is a key source of political information and its ability to educate future political decisions. The role of other players such as Russian targeted ads and political analysts including Cambridge Analytica will continue to influence the decision of many in the 2020 presidential election. Trump's opportunity and another hopeful to be candidates are in the substantial use of media. 

The ways the midterm elections are and are not like presidential elections 

The midterm elections have much to contribute to the 2020 presidential elections. The voting pattern and changing loyalty is a depiction of what is to be expected in the 2020 presidential elections. Trump appeared to have lost in some major states, but he maintained his grip on the Senate despite losing the Congress. However, this is not a conclusive indicator to show that the president will end to be a one-term president like George HW Bush and Carter. Smith (2018) argues 

“ The 2020 election will, as usual, be subject to the whims of the electoral college, with a handful of battleground states determining who reaches the target of 270 votes. With all the advantages of incumbency, Trump may prove harder to dislodge than many on the left have hoped or expected .” 

This statement implies that even though the president may have lost the Congress and some of the candidates he supported failed, events may turn out like the 2016 presidential election where he lost the popular votes but won in the Electoral College (Smith, 2018). 

Rensburg (2018) by observing that the Republicans did unseat "a string of Democratic senators up for re-election in states Trump won in 2016" provides useful information in predicting the 2020 presidential elections. The president is still loved by the majority of the voters that put him in office. Should the president maintain the trend and use the privilege of being the incumbent president to bring about transformations in the society and fulfill the promises he made to the voters, he will be a difficult man to remove from office come 2020. 

The current state of political polarization and demographics 

America is a polarized nation in social and political matters. Voters would want to associate with people they share with ideologies both political and social (Cohn, 2014). The polarization presents a new field that makes it increasingly impossible to rally a block vote for a candidate. Therefore, the choice for candidates is now based on ideologies and "The result is an electorate that's more likely to demand ideologically consistent candidates" (Cohn, 2014). Liberals and conservatives view each other as threats to the prosperity of the nation, the republicans and democrats representing these factions are equally divided along ideologies. It is getting difficult to predict the turnout of an election event. Cohn, (2014) goes ahead to note, " The animosity is so deep that many would be unhappy if a close relative married someone of a different political persuasion" and the divisions are deep such that many would prefer to stay "around people with similar political views ." These patterns picture a society that is married to their political views such as influencing them to vote in another direction is impossible. Such a polarized electorate would ensure the continuity of the president's term in 2020. The polarization between people in urban places and the rural areas also contributes to the challenges of running a successful campaign against trump in 2020. He is likely to be voted for a second term by conservative whites in the rural areas. 

The following voting patterns were observed in the elections if the House of Representatives: this statistic is valuable since it highlights the change of leadership in Congress from Republican-dominated to democrat dominated. 

Figure 2: Gender, race, and educational divides. Source Tyson, 2018. 

From the statistics, the voting pattern is randomly distributed. More men vote for Republican candidates that women, more whites vote I n republican Candidate than other races (blacks, Hispanic and Asian), also, among the whites, more men are voting in Republican candidate than women. The population in America is largely white as compared to other races. This indicates that Trump is likely to be reelected if the men give their votes in a block. However, a combined effect of all the factors could produce a different result especially if there are fewer male voting as compared to females.

Figure 3: Votes Distribution between Young Adults and Older Adults. Source, Tyson, 2018 

According to these statistics, younger voters preferred Democrat candidates over Republicans. Trump has to watch for this younger generation if he is to win the 2020 elections. In summary, the demographic patterns provide an insight into the voting pattern among the various races and the age groups. The statistics are not to be ignored but to be analyzed and applied in campaigns.

Cold-eyed View of Trump’s Prospects 

Trump is facing many challenges in approving his projects. This made difficult in the ascendance of the Democrats to the House of Representatives. The president will have to work a lot harder to have some of his projects passed as compared to when the Republicans were in control of the Congress. A failure to do what he promised the people would influence his election campaigns in 2020. The public will view his administration as a failure, which will affect his ability to gunner votes, as was the case in the 2014 presidential elections. Some of the agendas have passed through while some are greatly inhibited by strong opposition from the Democrats. The plan to construct a border wall will require several steps such as the approval of the house and the Senate, signing of the bill into law, the building of the wall and requiring Mexico to pay for it. In this, the president has only been truly successful in passing an executive order (Andrews, Pearce, & Keller, 2018). Renegotiating the Iran nuclear deal is another stalled project. So far, the president has only re-imposed sanctions but failed to negotiate another deal.

After withdrawing from NAFTA, the president has reached a new deal, which is yet to be ratified by the Congress. Concerning the repealing and replacement of the affordable care act, he has only been successful in passing an executive order, proposing a plan and getting the plan approved by the house but is yet to be senate and signed into law (Andrews, Pearce, & Keller, 2018). However, the president has been successful in increasing deportation of undocumented immigrants, nominating Supreme Court justice and reversing key Obama policies such as withdrawal from Paris climate deal, removed protection for the transgender students and other. Some areas he has experienced great failure are in imposing import taxes and investing in national infrastructure (Andrews, Pearce, & Keller, 2018). Poor track records will, most likely, influence the Trump’s ability to win a reelection ticket and the Democrats can capitalize on this, since they hold the Congress, and prevent major achievements such as the border wall.

Opportunities and Challenges His Campaign Face 

Trump’s reelection hangs on his ability to use the year 2019-2020 to fulfill the promises he made to the voters. His agendas are the strongest points that can win him another term in office. The subject of the border wall is a central theme in his administration today as it was during the campaign. The activities taking place at the border and the need to manage the crisis is a powerful tool if he can use it against the Democrats whom he must portray as being against the interest of the nation. The challenge that he is facing is in marshaling the Democrats as well as a section of the Republicans to make it possible for him to fulfill his mandate. Court cases and other blackmails or unproved facts concerning his affairs, collusion with Russia, and major decisions such as withdrawal from Syria and Afghanistan are also factors that will tell for his reelection. This notwithstanding, the president’s track record in economic reconstruction is positive and the remaining two years can bring more developments with a united Republican front.

Conclusion 

Presently, it is difficult to predict the winner of the 2020 presidential election although Trump has the highest opportunity as an incumbent. However, he has to accomplish his agendas; reshape his public image after images such as extramarital affairs and collusion with Russia. He must work to destroy the public confidence in the Democrats by the use of the social media as he has done repeatedly. The remaining time and the Democrats position in the Congress can still work in favor of the Democrats. 

References

Andrews, W., Pearce, A., & Keller, J. (2018). Tracking Trump’s Agenda, Step by Step. The New York Times Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/us/politics/trump-agenda-tracker.html 

Boxell , L.,  Gentzkow, M.,  and  Shapiro, j., M. (2017). Is Media Driving Americans Apart? The New York Times Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/06/opinion/is-media-driving-americans-apart.html 

Cohn, N., (2014). Polarization Is Dividing American Society, Not Just Politics . The New York Times Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/12/upshot/polarization-is-dividing-american-society-not-just-politics.html 

Freedland, J. (2018). The latest Trump scandal would have destroyed any other president. The Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/25/trump-scandal-president 

Renberg, A. J. (2018). US midterm elections for dummies: What losing the House means for Trump. Retrieved from https://www.news24.com/Analysis/us-midterm-elections-for-dummies-20181106 

Savage, C., and Vogel, K. (2018). The Legal Issues Raised by the Stormy Daniels Payment, Explained. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/us/politics/trump-cohen-payment-legal-issues.html 

Smith, D. (2018). 'Democrats won the House, but Trump won the election' – and 2020 is next. The Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/10/donald-trump-midterm-elections-2020-democrats-republicans 

Twitter. (2019). https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump 

Tyson, C. (2018). The 2018 midterm vote: Divisions by race, gender, education. Pew Research Center . Retrieved from http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/08/the-2018-midterm-vote-divisions-by-race-gender-education/