The U.S elects a president after every four years; however, the process of appraising presidential performance is continuous. The president is scrutinized from the time he takes office like no other world leader. Their standpoint on issues is evaluated, their character analyzed, and popularity measured on a continuous basis. To a greater extent, the success or failure of a given administration is directly related on the way the public views the president; which centers on the issue of popularity. In this essay, the primary focus will be on presidential popularity and measurement metrics.
Presidential Popularity and how it is measured
Presidential popularity or approval is the measure of the extent to which the citizens approve the leader's job. It affects the president's power because a popular leader can influence indisposed members of Congress or the public than the ostracized one ( Wood, 2007). Political scientists and economists have studied the concept of presidential popularity for years, and for that reason, they are rarely surprised about changes in their approval ratings. According to Walsh and Newman (1992), the popularity of a president is measured along foreign affairs policy and economic performance as the principal dimensions, and if not, character. This implies that politicians are opportunistic and care more about staying in power. Thus, they may engineer economic growth and expansion before an election to win the popularity of the people. On the other hand, politicians have a high affinity for ideologies (an agenda they hope to implement while in office), so changes in foreign affairs policy to reflect the needs and desires of the public would win them popularity.
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The Gallup organization has been measuring presidential popularity for decades. The poll conducts surveys from random respondents who either approve or disapprove of the presidency. Typically, presidential ratings on the Gallup polls are usually affected by unemployment and inflation rates (economic factors) ( Lavrakas, 2008). For this reason, presidents will often manipulate the economy to increase their chances to be reelected. Conversely, ideological politicians do not need to shape the fiscal policies but rather push policies that favor his voters (Walsh & Newman, 1992). The character can also reduce a president's popularity, for instance, President Nixon's popularity decreased significantly after the Watergate scandal.
Factors that Lead to Increases or Decreases in Presidential Popularity
Factors that Lead to an Increase in Popularity
Sound economic performance has a positive effect on the president’s popularity. Leaders who have focused on reducing the cost of living through tax cuts, inflation reduction, and the rates of unemployment have become popular ( Eulau & Beck, 2007). Also, the public reveres those who manage to create a fertile macroeconomic climate for growth and investment to encourage a healthy economy. The foreign policy also affects the way the Americans view their president. They relish it when the world cheers on their leader. For instance, the charismatic president J.F. Kennedy was one of America’s most adored and recognized leaders by the rest of the world ( Eulau & Beck, 2007). That kind of adoration instills a sense of pride among the citizens.
Lastly, a national crisis such can increase a president’s popularity because citizens focus on supporting their presidents during such as emergency, in what is called the “rallying effect” ( Wood, 2007). For instance, George W Bush's Gallup ratings were 51 before the September 11 th , 2001 terror attack on the World Trade Center and surged to 86 afterward because the country was in total support for him.
Factors that Lead to Decrease in Popularity
Character, precisely scandals can significantly decrease a president’s popularity. A president’s character is extremely imperative in determining his success in the office ( Wood, 2007). An example of character assassination is the 1972 Watergate scandal that led to the resignation of Richard Nixon. There was a break-in at the Democratic National Committee, and the burglars were found wiretapping phones and stealing documents. It was established that the president was directly linked to the scandal (The Editors of Encyclopedia Britannica , 2018b). The public finds such situations and scandals a disgrace to one of the most trusted offices and it feels cheated and deprived. If they establish that the individual who they trust with their lives is engaging in acts of dishonesty, then such a president's popularity decreases significantly.
The poor performance of the economy can also contribute to decreased popularity among presidents. A leader will record a significant decrease in popularity if the nation records high rates of unemployment, inflation, ineffective economic policies and a significant decrease in the stock market ( Eulau & Beck, 2007). Whereas the president has little control over the macroeconomic operations of the state, the public still feels he is responsible for the growth and development of the overall economy.
The presidents who have little understanding of the US foreign policy may have difficulties impressing the public. President Clinton suffered disapproval when he sent troops to Somalia because many soldiers were killed and hurt. Foreign policy failures such as this one cause the public to disapprove of the administration's policy, and thus reduces the overall approval ratings (The Editors of Encyclopedia Britannica , 2018a).
Factors that help to Explain Popularity or Changes in Popularity
Many factors are used to explain popularity and the changes in popularity for of the American presidents. The presidents in focus include Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump. President Lyndon Johnson came into power after the death of the young, popular J.F. Kennedy and provided stability and continuity that the citizens needed. He advanced the former president's legacy and achieved more than Kennedy. However, the Vietnam War contributed to negative changes in president Lyndon popularity. Millions of Vietnamese, as well as thousands of Americans military, lost their lives while other hundreds of thousands had their lives changed permanently ( Coleman, n.d).
President Richard Nixon’s popularity changed for the worse after the Watergate Scandal (The Editors of Encyclopedia Britannica , 2018b). Americans felt betrayed and cheated because the one person they had trusted their lives with was engaging in acts of dishonesty. Botched foreign policy decision and the sex scandal had a negative effect on President Bill Clinton’s popularity. The leader chose to send troops to Somalia and ended up losing in one of the worst forms of foreign policy decisions ever made. He also failed to send troops during the Rwanda genocide, also one of the worst missteps. Besides, President Clinton's political sex scandal with the then 22-year-old white house intern Monica Lewinsky between 1995 and 1997 adversely affected his popularity (The Editors of Encyclopedia Britannica , 2018a). The massive difference in power gap was enough to paint a negative image on President Clinton.
George W. Bush popularity reached its peak after 2001, September attack and decreased significantly by the time he was leaving office. Towards the end of his term, the economy was performing poorly because of the US-led Iraqi invasion. Also, it was established that the move had made the nation less safe ( Moore, 2001). On the other hand, Barack Obama Gallup ratings reached an all-time high of 67 in January 2009, and the lowest was 40. In the sixth year in office, the president recorded the least average of 42, due to his foreign policy missteps ( Gallup, 2017). The nation reentered Iraq, a war he had promised to end, president Putin invaded Eastern Ukraine with impunity and yet Obama failed to handle the issue effectively, and failure to neutralize the Syrian civil war that has since becomes a great threat (Cillizza, 2014 ). Lastly, Donald Trump popularity hit an all-time high of 45, and the lowest has been 35 since inauguration. Since he got to power, the public has never approved of his job as the president other than his party members ( Gallup, 2018).
Conclusion
The study established that a president's economic and foreign policies, as well as the character can significantly affect his popularity. Those who have been able to reduce the rates of unemployment, inflation, and create a favorable climate for investment will win the respect of the majority and vice versa is true. Further, foreign policies that appeal to the public can increase presidential popularity, unlike the opposite effect. Finally, scandals have a way of affecting a president's approval negatively.
References
Cillizza, C. (2014, December 12). President Barack Obama, you had the Worst Year in Washington again . The Washington Post . Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/opinions/2014/12/12/president-barack-obama-had-the-worst-year-in-washington-again/
Coleman, D. (n.d). LBJ’s Presidential Approval Ratings. Retrieved from https://historyinpieces.com/research/lbj-presidential-approval-ratings
Eulau, H. & Beck, M. (2007). Economic conditions and electoral outcomes: The United States and Western Europe . New York: Agathon Press.
Gallup. (2017). Presidential approval ratings -- Barack Obama . Retrieved from https://news.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx
Gallup. (2018). Presidential approval ratings – Donald Trump . Retrieved from https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
Lavrakas, P. (2008). Encyclopedia of survey research methods . Thousand Oaks, Calif: SAGE Publications.
Moore, W. D. (2001). Bush Job Approval Reflects Record "Rally" Effect Close to highest approval ever measured. Gallup. Retrieved from https://news.gallup.com/poll/4912/bush-job-approval-reflects-record-rally-effect.aspx
The Editors of Encyclopedia Britannica. (2018a). Bill Clinton: President of the United States. Encyclopedia Britannica . Retrieved from https://www.britannica.com/biography/Richard-Nixon
The Editors of Encyclopedia Britannica. (2018b). Richard Nixon: President of the United States. Encyclopedia Britannica . Retrieved from https://www.britannica.com/biography/Bill-Clinton
Walsh, C. E., & Newman, J. L. (1992). Presidential popularity, presidential policies (No. 92-01). Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Wood, B. (2007). The politics of economic leadership: the causes and consequences of presidential rhetoric . Princeton: Princeton University Press.
