Terrorism is considered one of the fundamental problems that the United States has managed in recent years. Terrorism is a form of aggression utilized to subject targeted individuals through the integration of unlawful methods. Various extremist groups incorporate this mechanism to coerce the nation into acknowledging specific radical, spiritual, or social beliefs. In recent years, the extremist groups' deeds have substantially affected the population attributed to their regularity attacks on sites within or linked to the United States. The research will be based on Islamic State Khurasan Province, a brief overview of the hypothetical attack, strategies to collecting information amongst law enforcement agencies, and recommendations on preventing the attacks.
Overview of Islamic State Khurasan Province
The Islamic State Khurasan Province is turning out to be a dangerous extremist group in advancing ISIL ideologies. This is attributed to the decreased dominance of ISIL, the parent group, in its operating regions (Khan, 2019). The Islamist group was founded in 2015 in Pakistan and Afghanistan regions. However, it has now extended its domination to nations such as India and Iran. The group's inception comprises discontented members originating from extremist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan, such as Al Qaeda and the Taliban. The people were primarily motivated by the extremist group's rapid accomplishments in Syria and Iraq and utilized the aspects in pledging allegiance to the ISIL leader.
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The extremist group's objectives are founded on the Islamic beliefs of Unitarianism "muwahhidun" that affirms an accord with God. Additional noticeable ideologies comprise the "Salafi tukfirism," which regards Islam as pure uprightness and views Muslims who fail to dwell on the beliefs as Islamic rejects. The extremist organization encourages every Muslim's unification under the ISIL caliphate and battle against pantheism, apparently existent in other faiths globally. The key nemesis target of ISKP in the United States administration. The notable leaders comprise Hafiz Khan Saeed and Qari Hekmat, who initiated the assaults regarding the group's leadership. However, most of the group's acknowledged leaders have either been murdered or apprehended within the existing leadership of Shahab al-Muhajir (Sheikh, 2017). The military operations against the extremist group have resulted in the death of approximately 1600 extremists.
Hypothetical Attack
As exemplified by the group’s mantra of mounting the al-Uqab banner on White House and regularly organizing assaults on mainland USA, ISKP embodies a long-term menace for the United States law enforcement agencies. A hypothetical assault on mainland United States is projected to take very comprehensive preparation and detailed understanding of the targeted sites. In this case, because of the group’s enormously enhanced security intelligence, an assault on US may not be conducted on a large spectrum devoid of being discovered. The United States has not recorded any notable foreign extremist assault on mainland United States since the assault on some regions in September 2001. Nonetheless, a sequence of mass killings has transpired, a clear indication of an impending attack by the extremist group.
The target site of the assault is the Jackson Memorial Hospital, considered to be the largest medical facility in Miami. Medical facilities are regarded as apt for small but potentially dreadful assault attributed to the facility's large populace and patient flow. Miami is similarly considered as a target for the assault due to the great populace and diversity (Martin, 2016). The Islamic extremist group's presence within the town is not likely to raise the alarm as they may be viewed as tourists exploring the city. Therefore, this makes it easier for the ISKP to carry out an attack.
The group’s form of attack would include double suicide missiles along with mass shootings and hostages. Preparation for the attack is likely to take approximately two years. This consists of the enrolment, training, and process of financing. The preparation process will include a slight number of individuals and implement simple but actual counterintelligence approaches and technologies to evade recognition and detection. The three incidents are likely to occur in consecutive phases. It may begin with the twin suicidal bombs in the lobby, gunfire from the hallway entrance, and the patient admission wards. The last stage of the attack would include taking patients hostage. The executions would be carried out at any hostile retribution by the agencies involved. No fighter is expected to survive from the ISKP group, making a suicide mission. Compared to other terrorist attacks, the assault at the hospital is meant to instigate fear and public distrust of the United States administration.
Strategies to collecting information
To curb the cases of terrorism, the FBI may integrate various advanced techniques and technologies in gathering precise, critical, and dependable intelligence that may be utilized in preventing assaults and identifying the terrorists. The data collected may be associated with the organization's characteristics, the terrorists’ capability, premeditated assaults, and the group’s intentions. Apart from the FBI collecting the data, other agencies involved in collecting data include the Central Intelligence Agency and Homeland security ( RAND, 2018) . To gather appropriate data, the agency may be required to integrate the proper strategies to access the most precise data that will assist in averting terrorist cases.
The first strategy involves concentrating on the immigration and international traveling structures. The process will include monitoring individuals' activities, exploiting the traveling procedures, immigration, and trading structures within the nation. To gain comprehensive information, the FBI will collaborate with other departments and agencies such as Immigration Department and CIA in enhancing detection, prevention, and screening capabilities. The intelligence collected is usually utilized to avert extremists’ access to the nation and conducting terrorist assaults. The FBI may carry out several vetting programs that help confirm the identity of individuals seeking to access the nation.
The second strategy may involve open-source intelligence collection. In this case, the Federal Bureau of investigation focuses on the entire populace to collect data that may be used in averting impending acts of terrorism. Presently, there exists an increased number of online databanks incorporated by the FBI to improve its ability (Homeland Security, 2019). The open-source method has advanced to be a significant procedure for intelligence gathering. This has also allowed the FBI to evaluate the tactics and terrorists’ background in the nation. The technological systems incorporated by the FBI will determine the agency’s collection capabilities. For instance, SIGINT technologies have let the agency establish the United States adversaries, plan analysis, and determining the type of undertakings the terrorist groups may partake in the nation.
The other strategy involves integrating technological solutions. The progressive technologies are integrated towards identifying the emergent and existing dangers. By integrating new technologies, the FBI might be compelled to collaborate with other enforcement agencies and the private sector association. In most cases, the agency collaborates with technology innovators in identifying existing technologies that extremists might misuse. Integrating technology in information collection is typically regarded as a forward-driven mechanism that lets the agency be extra productive (FAS, 2015). Moreover, the technologies allow the agency to establish nationwide systems and structures that help manage the dangers that might occur in airfields, coastal regions, and public areas.
Analysis Mechanisms
The information usually collected by the FBI is intended to allow the safeguarding of the American citizens. Moreover, the data ought to be incorporated and utilized a decision-making tool and acting to avert deeds of terror in the United States. The goals may only be accomplished when the data is precise, important and in the right system. As a result, FBI incorporates diverse data analysis approaches to scrutinize the eminence, steadfastness, and worth of the intelligence collected regarding terrorist activities in the US.
Over the years, the FBI has been incorporating a conceptually drive approach to analysis of information. Based on the conceptual approach, a hypothesis-based technique can take the top-down or bottom-up consideration. The enforcement scrutinizes the terrorism danger in question and cultivate models and hypothesis that may be used in assessing the quality of data acquired (Bruneau, 2018) . Based on the approach to collection of information, the intelligence accuracy might be dependent upon the completeness of the accessible information. It denotes that the data suitability would be judged by defining if the data is complete enough to be utilized as the foundation for clarifying a significant threat.
Another regularly utilized mechanism involves the data immersion model. In this instance, it is presumed that the mental concepts might not offer a foundation for clarifying an impending danger. The FBI agents may concentrate less on fitting the data into predetermined outlines. Rather, they endeavor to focus on the new data that presents fresh trends and patterns linked to the activity being probed.
Recommendations
Over the recent periods, the United States has seen a surge in the number of terrorist undertakings. To gain the upper hand over the terrorist group, it is imperative to incorporate drastic measures to aid in collecting factual information and assist in averting terrorist activities.
Recommendation 1
The first recommendation involves having unrestricted access to social media accounts controlled by ISKP and their sympathizers. In most instances, social media platforms and the internet have become known avenues used by extremist groups regarding initiating recruitment processes, conveying information to the sympathizers, and instilling fear. The government needs to conduct complete surveillance of the social media accounts while at the same time calling upon the legislature to make amendments to the Omnibus Crime Control and Safe Streets Act of 1968, 18 USC §§ 2510-2522. For instance, the nation may seek the services of Black Hat hackers. In return, it offers them immunity for the crimes committed. For the United States government, through the federal agencies to minimize the delivery of information through the platforms, it should pile pressure on social media and internet site hosting platforms' regulatory bodies. This may enhance the thorough enforcement of the principles and monitoring of the ISKP activities.
Recommendation 2
The second recommendation involves the recruitment of members that may have defected from the ISKP. Recruitment of the defectors will undoubtedly help gather much-needed intelligence regarding the details and movements of the ISKP leadership. In this instance, it may involve trying to view if the defectors can provide the United States federal agencies with specific information regarding the impending attacks. This is in terms of how they plan to conduct the assault, the preparations, and ways used in accessing the nation's borders. This may be achieved by convincing them to return to the group and act as informants of the US government. Defectors can also conduct a civic education on youth and Islamic citizens in the United States that might have begun or are already idolizing the group's terrorist attacks.
Recommendation 3
The third recommendation involves enlisting American allied forces' aid in pushing the front line backwards and defeating the ISKP operatives in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran. Nonetheless, the major challenge is that the group continues to develop globally. Therefore, combating extremists in only three nations may prove a daunting task as they may relocate to an unknown nation and begin operations. In this case, the main course of action the United States can incorporate to prevent a surge in cases of terrorism is seeking alliances with other nations with a similar mandate of preventing ISKP operatives from carrying terrorist attacks.
Conclusion
Terrorism remains to be one of the major problems faced by the United States of America. ISKP continues to develop as the dangerous extremist group attributed to the reduced dominance in regions of operation. For the United States to prevent terrorist activities, it is vital to collect needed intelligence and conduct an insightful analysis to develop a clear illustration of the impending attacks. Based on the recommendations, the agency may recruit defectors as informants, gain access to platforms using unethical hackers, and using American allied forces and agencies. This would be important in preventing deadly attacks and deaths.
References
Bruneau, T. C. (2018). A conceptual framework for the analysis of civil-military relations and intelligence. Defense & Security Analysis , 34 (4), 345-364.
FAS. (2015). Terrorist Intelligence Operations . Retrieved from: https://fas.org/irp/nsa/ioss/threat96/part04.htm
Homeland Security. (2019). Department of homeland security strategic framework for countering terrorism and targeted violence. Retrieved from: https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/19_0920_plcy_strategic-framework-countering-terrorism-targeted-violence.pdf
Khan, A. (2019). Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) in Afghanistan - An Assessment. Islamabad Papers , 39 .
Martin, R. H. (2016). Soft Targets are Easy Terror Targets: Increased Frequency of Attacks, Practical Preparation, and Prevention. Foresic Research & Criminology International Journal , 3 (2). https://doi.org/10.15406/frcij.2016.03.00087
RAND. (2018). Intelligence Collection. https://www.rand.org/topics/intelligence-collection.html
Sheikh, M. K. (2017). Islamic State Enters Al-Qaeda’s Old Hotbed: Afghanistan and Pakistan. Connections: The Quarterly Journal , 16 (1), 37–49. https://doi.org/10.11610/connections.16.1.03
