The 2018 mid-terms will be among the most heavily contested elections in recent American history. Already, party bigwigs are swarming key states in a bid to ensure control in the Senate and the house. An assessment of the battlefield reveals that both Democrats and Republicans have an opportunity to take the seats they need. In the Senate, Republicans are clinging to the 51- 49 majority and are hoping to retain their control (Scott, 2018). Democrats face a particularly uphill climb given they still need to win North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, Florida and West Virginia in addition to clinching Republican-held seats in Arizona, Nevada and perhaps Texas or Tennessee. Going by the polls, at least ten senate races look competitive more so in the swing states.
Swing states are those that neither party can claim to hold a lock on the presidential election outcome. The term is popularly used to describe states whose popular vote margin is quite narrow and fluid and whose electoral votes are likely to be most decisive in determining the outcome of presidential elections. Also referred to as battlegrounds, there are more than a dozen states perceived as swing states with most holding the largest number of electoral votes and, therefore, considered key prizes in presidential elections. Arizona, Florida, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin have historically been considered battlegrounds. These states tend to have a huge number of voters registered in either party. Historically, the number of swing voters has declined as the incumbent president seeks a second term. In recent years, the crown jewels have been Ohio and Florida, America’s 7th and 3 rd largest states, with 18 and 29 electoral votes respectively (Lawler, 2016).
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North Carolina, though historically seen as a Republican base, has in more recent years been considered a battleground. Barrack Obama took the state in 2008, the first time for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter, while Mitt Romney took the state back in the 2012 elections. The Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, won the state in 2016. Nevertheless, despite the North Carolina State Congress having a Republican supermajority, the governor is a Democrat, attesting to the swing status of the state. With changing demographics and the uncertain impact of president Trump’s fiery and often divisive rhetoric, Democrats are hoping to bring the state back to its fold while Republicans are hoping to maintain the dominance.
Republicans have adopted a number of approaches to consolidate their position in the state. When President Trump last visited the Carolinas, he was on a relatively nonpartisan visit to condole with those affected by Hurricane Florence. The big names that are now heading to the southern state are no doubt on a campaign trail. Trump Jr., one of the administration’s most controversial figures, was recently in the 9 th district to campaign for the Republican nominee Mark Harris. Karen Pence, the wife of Vice President Mike Pence, was also in North Carolina on a separate event to campaign for the Republican nominee, Mark Harris, who faces stiff competition from the Democrat, Dan McCready (Curtis, 2018). Other than these two, many other high-ranking Republicans have been in the state trying to drum up support for Republican candidates.
The effort by Republicans comes in the wake of an elaborate campaign effort by Democrats to retake the North Carolina state senate. In the 2016 elections, Republicans further solidified their supermajority in the state Senate from 34 -16 to 35 -15 (state senators serve for two-year terms with all seats subject to elections every two years) (BALLOTPEDIA, 2018). Only thirty votes are required to veto proposals made by the governor. Democrats, therefore, require at least six seats to be able to tear up the Republican Veto powers in the Senate. The current Governor, Roy Cooper, has been in a state of perennial conflicts with the Republican-led legislature culminating in a series of lawsuits, vetoes and veto overrides, some of which started before his swearing (BALLOTPEDIA, 2018). Republicans have been keen to use their supermajority to buy advantage for themselves through gerrymandering.
A federal district court in August 2016 found that the 28 districts, 19 house and nine Senate, proposed by the state senate were racially biased and involved in illegal gerrymandering. As such, the court ordered that special elections be conducted in the redrawn districts come 2017 (BALLOTPEDIA, 2018). The ruling was appealed to the US Supreme Court, which affirmed the decision of the district court. The court required the state legislature to draw new maps when it resumed sessions in 2017 though a series of lawsuits delayed the process. In September 2018, the federal court once again thwarted attempts by state senators at gerrymandering ruling that there is hardly adequate time for the drawing of a new map, meaning that the existing gerrymandered maps shall have to be used. The court noted that such a move would impose a new schedule on North Carolina’s congressional elections and, therefore, unduly interfere with electoral machinery besides likely confusing voters and depressing turnout (Doubek, 2018). With gerrymandering attempts by Republicans thwarted, the North Carolina elections will be fought in the ballot.
Democrats are keen to retake the US Senate seat, which they lost when Kay Hagan (D) lost to the incumbent Thomas Tillis(R) in the 2014 elections. Thomas Tillis, who is seeking a second term in office, is likely to launch a ferocious fight given that he won the 2014 election by a landslide. Given the high stakes in the election and the diminished prospect for gerrymandering, outside spending is likely to increase considerably. In the 2014 election, outside advocacy groups are estimated to have spent over $26 Million on the election between Kay Hagan and Thomas Tillis. Total outside spending is expected to increase dramatically in the 2018 election given the Democratic Party’s desire to tilt the balance of influence in the Senate. However, the other incumbent Republication senator Richard Burr remains a strong contender who pulled a major upset against the then-Democratic nominee in the 2016 election, Deborah Ross.
Given the strong emphasis that has been put on voter turnout in this election, the candidates are likely to seize every opportunity to appeal to the voter irrespective of background. To this extent, televised debates are likely going to be more decisive than they have been in the past. In these public discourses, it can be expected that Republican candidates will attempt to water down their support for controversial aspects of Donald Trump policies and distance themselves from his divisive rhetoric. On immigration, however, they are likely to endorse Trump’s tough talk, which resonates with a good number of voters in the Carolina’s. Beyond these, they are likely to rally around the Job Act, and the Tax Cuts that they argue have led to employers giving more money to employees. Additionally, many Republican candidates are likely to praise the employment gains they have made that have seen unemployment fall below 3.9%. But even with these gains, Republicans will have to demonstrate their stand on matters of health care in light of the projected devastating effects if Obama care were to be repealed. Nonetheless, it can be expected that the issues that have traditionally divided Republicans and Democrats will play out with Donald Trump being the novel phenomenon.
References
BALLOTPEDIA. (2018). North Carolina House of Representatives elections, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018, from https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018
Curtis, M. C. (2018, October 11). In North Carolina, the Midterms Are Not Just About 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018, from https://www.rollcall.com/news/opinion/north-carolina-midterms-not-just-2018
Doubek, J. (2018, September 05). North Carolina Can Use Gerrymandered Map In November, Court Rules. Retrieved October 23, 2018, from https://www.npr.org/2018/09/05/644767877/north-carolina-can-use-gerrymandered-map-in-november-court-rules
Lawler, B. H. (2016, November 09). How does the US election work and what is a swing state? Retrieved from https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/how-does-the-us-election-work-and-which-swing-states-will-determ/
Scott, D. (2018, October 18). The 10 most important Senate elections, briefly explained. Retrieved October 23, 2018, from https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/9/3/17800588/2018-midterm-elections-senate
