The tension between the United States and the North Korean has escalated in the recent past and reached a brink of war. Since Donald Trump took over the oval office, his intentions have always been clearly spelled out; he promised to live by his promise of preventing the Hermit stage from acquiring nuclear weapons and ballistic missile with the capability to strike the US mainland. However, the rogue state through her leader Kim Jong Un has maintained that it is nuclear capable and ready to strike the US or its allies should it feel threatened.
History of Conflict
The tension between the US and the DPRK traces its origin during the Korean War of the 150s when the US and the United Nations-backed South Korean against the invasion from North Korea. In a war that ended only by a truce and peace agreement was not signed, the North and the US-backed South Korea remains literary at war, and the fear that a war might erupt anytime has forced Washington to station more than twenty thousand combat-ready military in the Korean Peninsula. In the wake of the Cold War, the states felt threatened by the desire of the regime in North Korea to arm itself with nuclear weapons. Daniel Wertz and Chelsea Gannon (2015) notes that since the end of the Cold War, the United States and North Korea have engaged in on-and-off nuclear negotiations, which have ultimately failed to stop Pyongyang from building a small nuclear arsenal. The conflict over the nuclear weapon made it very difficult for the two countries to establish diplomatic relations.
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Over the years, the United States’ foreign policies have revolved around the deterrence of rogue regimes from acquiring nuclear weapons and deterring conflict in the Korean Peninsula as well as prevent human right violation in Pyongyang. For the DPRK, the continued presence of US forces Seoul has been their worry as they believe that Washington could easily invade them thus necessitating the need for nuclear weapons. Over the years negotiations have been carried in attempts to tame Pyongyang’s desire for nuclear capability, in 1994, “North Korea agreed to freeze operations at its nuclear facilities in Yongbyon and halt construction of new planned reactors” (Wertz & Gannon, 2015). However, such agreements were short-lived as Pyongyang continues violated its terms. The escalation of the conflict in 2017 has been caused Kim Jong Un, the grandson Kim Il Sung who has been involved in series of nuclear and missile test as well as rhetoric and warmongering with President Trump.
Key Players in Korean Conflict
The United States and the DPRK remain the key players in the conflict, however, South Korea, Russia and China as well as Japan remains countries of interest. This is because for Seoul and Japan remain Washington’s key allies in the region while China and Russia share a long border with the Hermit state and any conflict would have a direct bearing on their territories. In establishing the critical role played by China, Ishaan Tharoor (2017) argues that while the United States and China share the same goal of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula; “Chinese contend that further isolating the North Korean regime would only provoke Kim Jong Un into more destabilizing and unpredictable behavior.” For Japan and South Korea, they both looked up to the big brother for insulation against the unpredictable threats of Pyongyang.
Balance of Power
To a greater extent, the United States has been calling the shots in the Korean conflicts, she has been dictating terms, raising sanctions and stipulating policies to be adhered to. Increasing DPRK, has found it very difficult to live by terms of the states has have risen to challenge the US influence in the Peninsula. In attempts to solve the Korean conflict, China the sole key ally of Pyongyang also command significant influence. It is worth noting that while China is interested in a denuclearized peninsula, “China still looks at the North Korea problem through the lens of what the U.S. is doing, her strategic goal is to frustrate the U.S. and maintain a permanent division of the Korean peninsula” (Dias 2017). These different interests create the States and China as critical power holders and their actions greatly impact on the course of the conflict and the relationship between the Pyongyang the US allies.
Narrative of conflicts and Obstacles to resolutions
The United States believes that Kim’s regime pursuit of nuclear warheads and ballistic missile poses a security threat to territories and that of her allies in the region; Washington further assumes that Korean would use such advantage to force them out of South Korean and reunite the Peninsula. But for hermit state and its dictator, the nuclear weapons serve as deterrence and sole protection of the leadership from suffering the fate of other dictators like Saddam Hussein and Libya’s strong Muammar Gaddafi. Ted Carpenter (2017) observes that the U.S.-led intervention in “Libya in 2011 underscored to Pyongyang why achieving and retaining a nuclear-weapons capability might be the only reliable way to prevent a regime-change war directed against the DPRK.” Furthermore, DPRK does believe that the US will fulfill its bargain once they agree to seat on a negotiation table. Such fears and distrust between the key players have made it difficult for a resolution to be made. The continued violation and dishonor of the UN sanctions on North Korea and insincerity of China has made it very difficult for negotiation to be carried out. Furthermore, the hard stance by each side and show of force and military might have formed a barrier to a good deal.
References
Carpenter, T. G., Ezrati, M., Ashford, E. M., & Heilbrunn, J. (2017, November 9). Libya: The Forgotten Reason North Korea Desperately Wants Nuclear Weapons. Retrieved February 12, 2018, from http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/libya-the-forgotten-reason-north-korea-desperately-wants-23129
Wertz, D., & Gannon, C. (2017, June 23). A History of U.S.-DPRK Relations. Retrieved February 12, 2018, from https://www.ncnk.org/resources/briefing-papers/all-briefing-papers/history-u.s.-dprk-relations
Tharoor, I. (2017, September 05). Analysis | The North Korean chessboard: What next for the main players? Retrieved February 12, 2018, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/05/the-north-korean-chessboard-what-next-for-the-main-players/?utm_term=.124ef81d9566
Dias, E. (2017, October 12). The Conflict With North Korea Is Really About China. Retrieved February 12, 2018, from http://time.com/4979613/north-korea-donald-trump-china/
