Introduction
The world is currently experiencing a global power shift, particularly with the growing transfer of power from the West to the East. The shift in power is also dramatically changing the context in which nations address international challenges as well as their local challenges. Most Western nations are already acknowledging the fact that Asia’s economic and political strength is growing; however, the Western nations are not yet prepared to deal with Asia’s growing strength, thus creating a risk of repeating their past mistakes. Major power shifts between states do not occur frequently, and they are rarely peaceful. One of the major global power shifts occurred in the early 20 th century during the Imperial order. However, the aspiring states, Japan and Germany, and the imperial order failed to accommodate each other through proper adjustment resulting in a conflict that devastated most parts of the globe. Today, the transformation of power will present even a greater impact since it requires the assimilation of clearly different cultural and political traditions. The present global power shift is particularly driven by the concept of globalization, and it has led to key economic, social, cultural, environmental, and political problems that nations must work together to address. This paper examines the concept of the shift of power as explored by Paddy Ashdown in the TED Talk, ‘The Global Power Shift,' and how the concept is changing the different aspects of the modern world, including governance, the formation of alliances, and dealing with such global challenges as terrorism among others.
The Rising Powers
The United States has maintained the position of the world’s most powerful nation (Sisodia & Krishnappa, 2009). However, in the recent years, the highly populated states of Asia are working towards playing a more significant role in the global economy. Just like Germany and Japan in the early 20 th century, the Asian countries that comprise of the rising powers are seeking to redress the past inequalities, are nationalistic, and they are striving towards claiming their place in the world (Sisodia & Krishnappa, 2009). The growing economic power in Asia is translating to greater military and political power, therefore increasing the risk of conflicts. Some of the areas in Asia that have defied the decision for a peaceful resolution include the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, and Kashmir, and they pose a considerable risk of hostilities that may spread to the rest of the world (Sisodia & Krishnappa, 2009). Any of these regions have a high likelihood of exploding into large-scale warfare; indicating that Asia possesses enormous stakes and it is likely to challenge the adaptability of the West (Sisodia & Krishnappa, 2009).
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Presently, the most apparent power that is rising is China. China is, however, not the only rising power in Asia (Sisodia & Krishnappa, 2009). India and other Asian economies are also currently boasting growth rates that could exceed those of the primary Western states in the coming decades (Sisodia & Krishnappa, 2009). The economics of China is growing at approximately more than 9% per year and expected to reach double that of Germany by 2020, while that of India is growing at approximately 8% (Sisodia & Krishnappa, 2009). The Southeast Asian tigers have also recovered from the financial crisis that occurred in 1997, and they have resumed working towards increasing their economies (Sisodia & Krishnappa, 2009).
The Effect of the Global Power Shift
Ashdown (2018) argues that we are in a moment in history when power is changing in a manner that has not been experienced before. Ashdown notes that changes in power are accompanied by blood and turbulence, which necessitates states to work as teams in addressing the challenges that accompany such shifts in power. Ashdown (2018), clearly outlines three critical global factors that are emerging concerning power, including the change of power towards a worldwide stage, power shifting both vertically and horizontally, and interdependence.
The shift in Power towards a Global Space
According to Ashdown (2018), the current shift in power is scary since it has never occurred before, and it is presenting challenges that have not been experienced in the past. Presently, power is not only moving laterally from one nation to another but also vertically. The power that is held to accountability and the rule of law within a nation-state has shifted to the global stage (Ashdown, 2018). The concept of globalization, which refers to the process through which organizations and other business develop an international influence, has dramatically influenced the globalization of power through such aspects as the globalization of markets. While at the nation-state level power is held accountable subject to the rule of law, at the global stage, the power is not subject to the requirements of the rule of law (Ashdown, 2018). Presently, power resides in the international stage, and it is supported by such elements as money changers, satellite broadcasters, and the internet. The growth of multinational corporations has also played a crucial role in facilitating the shift of power since they often develop budgets that are bigger than those developed in medium-sized countries (Ashdown, 2018). All these elements reside in the global space that is not subject to the rule of law, and it is also extensively unregulated, therefore allowing people and organizations to act free of constraint (Ashdown, 2018).
The critical challenge that the shift of power towards an unregulated global space poses is that such a shift only favors the most powerful nations since they can freely operate without facing any constraints. However, Hoge (2015) postulates that history has demonstrated that unregulated spaces eventually become saturated not only by the things that are wanted, such as the internet and international trade but also undesirable things, such as international terrorism and criminality ( Hoge, 2015) . Events such as the 9/11 made it clear that with the concentration of power in the global space, even the most powerful nations are capable of getting attacked in their most secure and iconic cities ( Hoge, 2015) . Ashdown notes that enemies utilize the global space, which includes mass travel, the internet, and satellite broadcasters to destroy the existing ways and systems. The internet, particularly, plays a critical role in enabling enemies, who include terrorists to learn about the systems that their targets utilize and ways in which they can destroy such systems ( Hoge, 2015) . Avenues such as mass travel facilitate the movement of enemies, therefore increasing the risk of insecurity and crime even in such powerful nations like the United States ( Hoge, 2015) .
According to Ashdown (2018), the rule of history holds that wherever power goes, governance must follow; however, the globalization of power presents the challenge of bringing governance into the global space (Ashdown, 2018). Ashdown recommends that one of the ways through which governance can be brought into the global space by powerful nations coming together and making agreements that are treaty-based that focus on governing the space (Ashdown, 2018). Such treaties have already begun to be established, and they have proved efficient in holding nations accountable in the global space. Some of the treaty-based agreements that are already in use include the Kyoto, G20, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). One of the challenges that are likely to arise from such treaties is that the weak nations are likely to suffer since their interests are not represented as only the most powerful are responsible for the implementation of the treaties (Ashdown, 2018).
Power is Shifting both Vertically and Horizontally
Ashdown (2018) predicts that the United States will maintain the position of the most powerful nation for approximately the next 10 to 15 years. The context in which the U.S. holds power has, however, significantly changed (Ashdown, 2018). The nation initially held power in a mono-polar world, where all the nations of the world used the U.S. as a reference point. However, with globalization, a multi-polar world is beginning to emerge; hence, although the U.S. is a dominant power, it will remain the most powerful economy in an increasingly multi-polar world. This is attributed to the fact alternative sources of power are emerging, including Brazil, India, and China, which is increasingly democratizing its society after the liberalization of her economy (Ashdown, 2018). The modern world resembles Europe in the 19 th century, with multiple polarities of power that necessitates changing and shifting alliances, unlike under systems of the fixed polarity of power that require fixed alliances (Rachman, 2016). Given these conditions, the West will be needed to focus more on doing business with individuals whom they share common interests rather than merely looking for those they share universal values if they are to thrive in the modern globalized world.
Interdependence
Ashdown states that factors such as globalization and the internet have made everything in the world connected to each other, therefore indicating that all things are interdependent (Cohen & Chiu, 2014). Hence, the idea of nations working alone is not viable anymore, since the activities that a country engages in or the problems that it faces affect other countries in different parts of the world. For instance, destruction of food in one society may translate to famine in another nation, since food produced in one country is used to feed people in another. Moreover, the vertical structure is not viable given the shift in power; instead, the capacity of a network is more crucial to meet the needs of a nation (Cohen & Chiu, 2014). This illustrates that with such elements as the creation of weapons of mass destruction and interconnectedness, all countries share a common destiny. Therefore, states should focus on resolving conflicts with their enemies since under the emerging power system; nations must work together towards the desired common future (Cohen & Chiu, 2014).
Conclusion
The concept of globalization has contributed to the globalization of power, therefore a shift in power from the West towards the East. However, such a shift in power is often accompanied by undesirable turbulence, which may be accompanied by war. The world can, however, address such turbulences by understanding the effects that shifts in power bring and working together towards achieving global stability. Some of the measures that nations can implement to address the challenges that the global shift in power present include bringing governance to the worldwide space through treaty-based agreements, embracing shifting and changing alliances to match the multiple polarities of power, and embracing networking since all nations are dependent on each other irrespective of whether they are enemies or not.
References
Ashdown, P. (2018). Paddy Ashdown: The global power shift. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuAj2F54bdo
Cohen, B. & Chiu, E. (2014). Power in a changing world economy: lessons from East Asia . London New York: Routledge.
Hoge Jr, J. F. (2015). A global power shift in the making. In Paradoxes of Power (pp. 62-68). Routledge.
Rachman, G. (2016). Easternization: Asia's rise and America's decline from Obama to Trump and beyond . New York: Other Press.
Sisodia, N. & Krishnappa, V. (2009). Global power shifts and strategic transition in Asia . New Delhi: Academic Foundation in association with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.
