The 2020 Congressional Elections

Introduction 

2020 senate election is among the most contested seats in the United States as Democrats and Republicans struggle to control the 117th Congress from January 2020. Republicans and Democrats are currently in their final weeks of high stakes fight for two-years US senate control. The winning party dictates policies passed by the president on essential issues like taxes, climate change, and healthcare and determine who to include in federal courts. Past laws like the New Deal, the Great Society, Barack Obama's health care reforms of 2009, and the Republicans' conservative counterattacks on the welfare state in 1981, 1995, and 2015 succeeded due to the senate's changes. Apart from passing laws, congress performs the legislature's duty and oversees the executive branch ( Jacobson & Carson, 2019 ). Congress ensures collective representation of the entire US based on sex, age, race, religion, and others. In the past years, the Republicans had an advantage over the Democrats in controlling both chambers. However, in 2018, Democrats took control of the house of Representatives while the Republicans retained their senate race. The 2020 senate race will be highly contested owing to the division seen in Trump's administration. Jacobson and Carson argue that electoral factors in the US make leaders responsive and responsible to the people they serve. In his theory of Congressional elections, Jacobson and Carson argue that although electoral politics of congress centers on individual candidates and campaigns, the results shape the course of national politics (2019). The 2020 senate elections are predicted based on the candidates' agenda, change in seats where a party currently holding the majority seat is likely to lose, press approval, and the nature country's economy. In their theory, Jacobson and Carson explain the 2020 senate elections by focusing on candidate and campaigns, national economic and political conditions, incumbency, open seats, candidate funding, and qualified challengers (Jacobson & Carson, 2019) . Jacobson's theory of congressional elections perfectly explains the 2020 Senate elections. 

Use the theory and Jacobson's explanation to explain the 2020 senate election. 

The national economy influences Senate elections in the United States. Jacobson's and Carson’s theory of congressional elections asserts that economic conditions significantly impact the senate elections (2019). Based on different economic variables, time, and control variables, it is evident that the economy's state impacts the outcome of aggregate congressional elections. If elections are held when the economy performs better, better candidates get elected to congress (Jacobson & Carson, 2019) . More so, the national economy either favors or disfavor candidates vying on the president’s party. In 2018, change in real income per capita over the election year was crucial for the candidate's success in the senate race. Voters look at the presidential training based on economic performance when deciding whether the party has brought any positive change to the national economy. In 2020, although the national economy will be a crucial factor in selecting the right candidate for senate seats, the impact will be less compared to other years. Although the economy is down, the Trump administration touts a positive score in economic policies. Following the outbreak of Covid 19, the US economy has deteriorated with over 15 million people (11% unemployment rate) losing the job, and with the current growing number of cases, there is a chance that more losses by the end of the year. Every party is doing a roundtable on all states' economies, revealing their plans to rebuild the economy. According to the congressional election theory, four economic valuables impact senatorial elections; personal financial experiences and expectations, perceptions of general economic conditions, evaluations of the government's economic performance, and image of the candidate's party on economic politics (Jacobson & Carson, 2019) . In states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the economy will be a vital determinant of 2020 senate elections. However, based on the positive economic score of President Trump's economic conditions is likely to favor the Republican candidates. 

The national conditions and strategic of politics has a significant influence on the outcome of elections. According to Jacobson and Carson, voters evaluate congressional elections based on their knowledge of a specific set of candidates (2019). Some of the political conditions that influence voters' decisions include the economy and the president. In the 2020 senate elections, voter's decisions will be based on the candidate's ability to deal with national problems like the current Covid-19 pandemic and restoring the glory of the American economy. While in the past year's voters used to evaluate candidates independently, this year, Americans are looking at national policies since the senate is responsible for passing policies. In 2004 and 2008, a similar influence of political conditions in congressional politics was evident (Jacobson & Carson, 2019) . Following the political popularity of George W Bush in 2002, the Republican Party picked up control of the congress. However, in 2008 Bush rating dropped due to unpopularity in handling the Iraq war. This favored the Democratic Party where President Obama became elected, and the Democrats controlled the house, although the Republicans took back in 2010 due to high unemployment. The low rating of President Obama caused the high control of the Republic in congress in 2014(Jacobson & Carson, 2019) . In the current senate race, political conditions are influencing the outcome. President Trump's low rating and recent attempts to impeach him, and poor economic conditions place the Republican candidates at risk. If voters decide to view the candidate's ability based on their political party, there is a high probability that the Democrat’s will control the 117 th congressional. 

Over the past years, exposure has influenced the outcome of congressional elections. In the congressional election theory, Jacobson and Carson assert that when a party is currently holding lots of seats, the chances of losing them to the opponents is high(Jacobson & Carson, 2019) . The more seats that a party holds before elections, the more vulnerable it is to go down. Republicans are worried about the high exposure in the house, which is likely to make them lose in the November elections. The Republican has to defend 23c seats in November compared to 12 seats for the Democrats. Incase Biden wins the election, the Democrats will be required to flip a net three seats, and in case he loses, they need four seats. The eleven most competitive senates seats in Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia (both regular and special elections), Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, and Texas will influence the elections' outcome. From the eleven critical races, the Republican holds eight seats which they need to defend to win the congressional race. The high exposure of Republican candidates plays as an advantage for Democrats to control the 117 th congress. 

The positive effect of incumbency is high in the Congressional and House of Representatives race in the US. In the past elections, the incumbent has positively favored the re-election of candidates from either party due to high exposure in media, high access to fundraising, and staffings. In the 2018 congressional race, the Democrats party had many numbers of candidates seeking re-election. Similarly, in the 2020 elections, the Republican party is counting advantage of its high incumbency rate and are using they are using its current positions to gain more votes (Jacobson & Carson, 2019) . Most Democrats signify to their voters to re-elect them to enable them to finish the job they started in 2018. They are also calling cards to votes by offering health policies like preserving and expanding the Affordable Care Act, strategies to end the COVID-19 crisis, and ending racial inequality. House Democrats are expected to retain the majority easily sits with minimal losses; however, for the Republican, the possibility of reelection is a bit tough due to the poor record by their party leader. Many voters are unleashing a flurry of an attack on Democrats candidates and using President Trump's failures on them. Jacobson asserts that when a partisan is gloomy, the incumbent rate declines since the suppliers of the campaign and sponsors decline to waste their resources (Jacobson & Carson, 2019) . Incumbents are adept at taking credit for the government's success to win votes while avoiding taking responsibility for its failure (Jacobson & Carson, 2019) . While the incumbency will favor most Democrats, the race might be a bit tougher for Republic candidates seeking re-election in the senate, especially in the 11 highly contested states. 

In the congressional elections, qualified challengers and the number of open seats significantly influence the race outcome. In 2002 elections, competitive Democratic challengers were backed by 31% mire campaign funding than their incumbent Republican competitors. Although it is unlikely for the incumbent to be outspent in the competitive senate race, even successful challengers have been outspent by the losing incumbent (Jacobson & Carson, 2019) . During the 2018 elections, Democrats enjoyed a financial advantage in 21 of the 24 races against the incumbent, which made them win all twelve open seats. Of this lavishly financed success, 20 were women. Open seats present both parties an advantage to win; hence need to apply the right defensive mechanisms. Between 1981 to 1987, available open seats c made the congress's difference, where Republicans won all the seats vacated by Democrats and defeated 2 Democratic incumbents(Jacobson & Carson, 2019) . In 2006 Democrats party brought more qualified challengers, which led to winning many open seats leading, making them control the senate. Jacobson argues that qualified or experienced challenger enhanced the competitiveness of senate elections. 

The outcome of the senate race is influenced by candidate campaign funding. In recent years, Republican and Democratic parties have spent more money to save incumbents, the candidate. Every election year since 19676, the amount of candidate spending has been rising significantly, creating a need for a candidate to add more funding to support their campaigns and create a chance of winning. In 2010 and 2014, Republican challengers outspent the Democratic challengers, while in 2018; Democrats outspent almost ten times more than Republican candidates (Jacobson & Carson, 2019) . In 2020 senate elections, the Republican has more recumbent seats to defend; hence are likely to require higher funding than their competitors from the Republican Party. In the 2020 congressional elections, candidate funding is likely to influence the outcome of the elections. Congressional elections are expensive, especially where the level of competition is very high. Although an individual's donation is the largest source of senate campaign money, individuals require financial funding from other sources to sustain their campaign and gain positive reviews from the voters. In his theory, Jacobson and Carson argue that self-financed candidates are less likely to win senate seats than those who get funding from PAC, political parties, and sponsors (Jacobson & Carson, 2019) . Candidates who compete for the nomination to challenge the incumbent are more favored since they have easier access to campaign funds, giving them hope of winning (Jacobson & Carson, 2019) . Many contributors are willing to invest in challengers because the political condition favors them. In the 2020 senate race, this factor favors the Republicans, who have many candidates running against incumbents from Republicans. 

The quality of a candidate's campaign and issues or themes discussed in the manifestos determine elections' outcome. Jacobson argues that the strategic decision to run or contribute their money is impacted by national conditions and campaign themes available to candidates. Candidate chose their campaign themes based on the national conditions to reach voters, Variation of campaign issues from one election period to another explain the cause of vote swings and voters turnover (Jacobson & Carson, 2019) . Incumbent’s candidates mainly set their campaign issue to align with that of their party leader. However, if the government has failed to succeed in issues like economic and wars, they present their issue to deal with the challenges. In the 2022 senate race, Republican Party candidates used the campaign theme of Democrats to attempt to impeach President Trump. However, the campaign theme has failed to win the positive party rating, forcing candidates to use other vital issues like the economy, climate change, free trade, and health. On the other hand, Democrats candidates' campaign themes revolve around improving ACA healthcare, solutions to end the COVID-19 crisis, gun rights, climate change, and solving racism cases, especially in the criminal justice system. Looking at the quality of campaign and issues presented by senate candidates from the two parties, Democrats have attracted more votes than the Republican candidates. 

Conclusion 

When the elections began early in the year, the Republicans had many red states to defend. However, the national polls' change has favored the Republican incumbent, with the majority seeking reflection in non-red states. The Republican is likely to control the next senate since most factors highlighted by Jacobson and Carson favors them. Currently, the Republican holds a 53-47 advantage in the senate. The party only needs to defend 23 seats this year compared to the Democratic party who have to defend 12 seats. The Republican-held Senate has bolstered President Trump during his first term in office, including acquitting him after impeachment by the House of Representatives. The critical 2020 senate race that will determine the elections' outcome includes Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia (both regular and special elections), Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, and Texas. However, it will not be a smooth win for the Republican since Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama is losing. Also, Republican incumbents candidates in South Carolina and Maine are facing a tough race from the Democrats. 

Reference 

Jacobson, G. C., & Carson, J. L. (2019).  The politics of congressional elections . Rowman & Littlefield.