Introduction
The nomination, election, and confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh created a wave that is referred to as the Kavanaugh effect. This effect has been likened to the 2016 Scalia effect. This is because his confirmation led to diverse reactions from different parties, groups of people, and individuals. The article will be discussing the impact of this effect. How his confirmation was received by various groups of people, how it affected their perception and its outcomes. Some of the individuals who will be mentioned include President Trump, the Senators running for re-election who voted against or for Mr. Kavanaugh, the voters in general, the female voters in particular, and the parties in the United States of America. This shows that almost everyone is going to be affected by the presence of the Kavanaugh in the office.
The Senators Running for Reelection
This is considered one of the significant effects of the Kavanaugh Effect. There were tangible polling consequences for the red state Democrats who were against the confirmation of Justice Kavanaugh. These senators lost their seats during the election because of their decision to not support Mr. Kavanaugh. The senators are Heidi Heitkamp who lost the North Dakota senatorial seat and Bill Nelson, who was not re-elected for the senatorial seat in Florida State. The third senator was Joe Donnelly from Indiana and Senator Claire McCaskill.
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Severino (2018) quotes senators such as Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia was likely to have retained his seat because he supported the nomination and confirmation of Justice Kavanaugh. He managed to win the senatorial seat by a three-point margin. This is a clear indication that the confirmation of Mr. Kavanaugh was a determining factor in the re-election of the senators. Those who supported him were favored by the voters and as such were able to retain their seats. Senator Jon Tester from the state of Montana hardly won the senatorial race. He was one of the senators who voted against Kavanaugh and was close to losing his seat as well (Severino, 2018).
The senators who voted against Mr. Kavanaugh will always have a nagging ‘what if’ feeling because of how their counterparts got to retain their seats while their lost theirs. They will also have to face the fact that now the Grand Old Party has a greater majority which was initially owned by the red state Democrats.
The Voters
The confirmation of Mr. Kavanaugh weighed immensely on the voters across the United States of America. The voters seemed to be swayed to vote for the senators who supported him. Those who did not support him did not receive favor from the voters. According to ABC News, as quoted by Severino (2018), forty-seven percent of the voters from North Dakota stated that a vote against Mr. Kavanaugh was very important in their voting. The voters swayed to Cramer and away from Heitkamp because her vote was against Kavanaugh. Voters from Missouri indicated that one of the factors that determined their voting was the support for or against Mr. Kavanaugh. This resulted in Mr. McCaskill losing his seat. This was the same case for West Virginia State, Florida, Montana, and Indiana. The Kavanaugh Effect clearly had an effect on the voters. It is evident that most of the voters supported his confirmation and they supported any politician who was for him. This is because the candidates were in agreement with their opinions.
The confirmation of Justice Kavanaugh is another clear indication of how important the matter of judicial courts is significant across the country. Voters, who the citizens of the country, prioritize the importance of having a functional justice system. Individuals want to have the security of knowing that their government is fully running and that their interests are taken care of. They also want to be assured of having their problems solved.
Kavanaugh was accused of a sexual offense which is adamantly denied. Women voters wanted him to step down but he said he was willing to stand and defend himself. His lack of resignation swayed the female voters who felt justice had not been served. This also led to the formation of the #MeToo movement which had members from those elected to those in the grassroots. They wanted to show a public resistance to the norms that were emerging regarding people believing the accusers of sexual assaults. His appointment was viewed as a lack of respect or value for victims and survivors of sexual assaults.
Corporate world and the financial services industry
The Kavanaugh Effect also will impact the industry of financial services and the corporate world at large. Mr. Kavanaugh has had a twelve-year professional career on the Circuit Court of Appeal found on the District of Columbia. This demonstrated an in-depth skepticism of the federal rulemaking and regulatory authority. His addition to the court, it is expected that the court will be able to take more of a pro-business stance and display more skepticism of the regulation of the financial services and federal oversight.
Regulation of securities
One of these areas mentioned by Rozzo (2018) will be the regulation of securities. This is due to the fact that Mr. Kavanaugh is well-known as a critic of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). It is because of this that his presence in the court is considered very significant. He predicted the reduction of SEC sanctions and many believe he is going to actualize his prediction. This will lead to the quick verdicts of future SEC cases. Quick appeals will make the agency become less bolstered to inflict sanctions that are stiff giving them room to go after actors in the industry that are questionable.
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
There will be new legal challenges for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. This is because Mr. Kavanaugh has openly stated that the structure of this body is “unconstitutional” (Rozzo, 2018). His opinion of the body is that it lacks sufficient oversight and its level of independence dangerous. The Congressional Republicans are bolstered to make certain modifications to the agency. The reforms can include limiting its regulatory oversight or even replacing of its independent director with a consultative or advisory board.
Labor Department
The making of rules from the Labor Department is likely to face more scrutiny with Kavanaugh being part of the Supreme Court. He has openly voiced his skepticism on the Doctrine of Chevron and if the Supreme Court is to overturn this current precedent, the Congress might be expected to draft language involving particular regulations. This will in turn distinctly raise the strain on the Congress to unanimously approve on and pass laws that command federal oversight.
First Amendment rights of the service providers of the internet
Kavanaugh also spoke on the telecommunications matter of net neutrality arguing that the previous net neutrality was violating the First Amendment rights of the service providers of the internet. He was also against the efforts of the administration of President Obama when it came to combating the climate alterations through governing actions by the Environmental Protection Agency. His confirmation, therefore, has the potential to amend precedent, which includes the corporate world (Rozzo, 2018).
The Supreme Court and America
Bennette (2018) stated that when requested to label his approach to the bench, Kavanaugh stated that a judge has to be independent and should interpret the laws of the country and not just make them. Bennette believes that his confirmation will have a huge impact on the Supreme Court and America at large. One of the effects of his presence in the Supreme Court is that it will solidify a conservation majority on the law court for years to come. His reputation precedes him as a careful and solid judge. The Democrats are concerned that his presence will lead to the slow expansion of gays, the strengthening of gun rights and it will also open doors for various states to chip away at abortion access.
Kavanaugh is known to be a devoted supporter of the executive power. He was able to serve under President George W. Bush for over five years and was part of an independent counsel where President Bill Clinton was investigated. He beckoned Congress to pass a law that stated sitting presidents must not be exposed to civil suits of criminal investigations. He recommended that presidents who are wayward should go through the impeachment process. President Trump is currently under investigation to determine his ties to Russia in the 2016 campaign. In the event that the Justices are requested to choose whether the president should be charged with a criminal offense or subpoenaed, it is evident which side Kavanaugh is likely to choose.
Kavanaugh is known for his remarkable work in the justice system. Many, however, are left wondering what kind of system he is likely to adopt once he is confirmed. Many others believe that there is a probability that he will likely change the law court via his persistent conservatism. This was shaped by his strong belief that founders of this nation intended for Congress to document and pass laws The executive’s task was to execute them and the judges were to distinctively draw a line between the two of them.
Effect on Midterm Elections
Kavanaugh’s confirmation is believed to have an effect on both the Republic Party (Grand Old Party) and the Democratic Party in the midterm elections. Stober (2018) stated in the Global News that in spite of the Democrats leading in the polls, the confirmation of Mr. Kavanaugh may have awoken the GOP base. The Senate Republican majority leader Mr. McConnell expressed his surprise at the increase in enthusiasm since the confirmation of Mr. Kavanaugh. He believes that this confirmation has energized the base. He also said that a court fight unifies Republicans hence their excitement in the upcoming elections.
This confirmation may also improve the chances of the Republicans holding the Senate. The Senate is vulnerable to the Democrats who take the majority because many of them would be up for re-election. Before the Kavanaugh battle, the Democrats were hugely preferred to triumph over the control of the House of Representatives while the Republicans were anticipated to maintain the rule over the Senate. However, the Kavanaugh effect has led to the uncertainty in how the voters will sway because this decision has brought about dissimilarities in the attitudes and gender on sexual assaults.
The Democrats, on the other hand, are believed to be angry and that their anger may outlast the excitement that the Republicans have. Stober argues that anxiety and anger have been a good motivator for voters and this is likely to happen in the camp of the Democrats. This anger is expected to fuel the voters to the polls so that they triumph over the Republicans.
There is a clear divide in the choices of the voters. Some of the voters have changed camps while some are not sure whether they will turn up to vote. A good number of them also said that the confirmation will not affect their voting. Women, especially, feel their position in the world has been undermined. Independent individuals believe Kavanaugh was not properly investigated and as such, they do not support his confirmation. This makes gender a determining factor of where the votes could sway.
Despite all the commotion caused by the confirmation of Kavanaugh, there are individuals who believe it will all eventually die down and will not have any effect on the elections. They believe many headlines have come and gone without any major impact on the lives of individuals or their decisions.
What Brett Kavanaugh means for the future of America
The presence of Kavanaugh is likely to affect the executive, the judiciary and the legislature as earlier mentioned. It is also likely to affect the corporate world. As mentioned by Raftery and Brownstone (2018) his confirmation is also likely to affect the future of the United States of America in other integral ways.
The rich and the Power
One of these was is that the judiciary will be a place where the wealthy and powerful will be going to protect their accumulated assets and power. In the previous years, decisions that were made by leaders were geared towards the direction of the protection of minorities, human rights and there was a lesser rule of the majorities. There is a growing concern that the minorities will no longer have a place where they can find justice. An example of why this is a concern is the ruling that favored money interests, corporations and the supremacy of Christians. The powers of collective bargaining and unions are likely to be weakened. The conservative justices also took the side of American Express over a law that was intended to make a cash purchasing power of the underprivileged more equal with the purchasing power of the credit cards of the rich.
Decisions made by Judges
Kavanaugh also believes that courts should be allowed to make decisions on the Constitutionality of regulations. This will allow the judges to overturn the administration of the regulations that deal with the minimum wages earned by individuals, their healthcare and protection at work. Individuals from humble backgrounds are on the chopping board while the rich have a field to play. The poor will likely lose their significance in the eyes of the law.
Civic Equality
The other concern is the impact of his confirmation on the constitutional inquiries made that are related to civic equality, individual autonomy, and even access to courts. There is also a concern about his impact on the law court regarding his role in the mismatch that is ever increasing between the control of the government and the popular will. He has openly shown that he is a partisan and that he has a commitment that is selective to precedent questions on the equality of individuals and their fundamental rights.
Attacks on the Minorities
Raftery and Brownstone (2018) believe that there is a fear of attacks on the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) equality, the making of aborting illegal and the hostility of the justices to the ability of the lawmakers to pass economic regulations and the net laws of social safety. The Justices are likely to strike down the climate policy, fifteen dollars minimum wage, and Medicare For All which are crucial for the poor in society. The LGBT community has fought for a place in the society and all that may go through the drain. They may lose a voice in the society.
Voting and Gerrymandering
The other effect is that the court is likely to make it a lot easier for states in America to impose voting rules that are restrictive and to participate in gerrymandering. There is a probability of the court also making it difficult for the states to control funds in politics. Gerrymandering is defined as the drawing district lines to impact elections in the future. Justice Kavanaugh is almost undoubtedly going to help resolve some of the confusion by simply throwing the lawsuits out. The throwing away of the lawsuits will leave many issues unresolved hence voting will be affected.
The Rights of Women
The confirmation of Mr. Kavanaugh has dwindled all the hope that women had when it came to dealing with policies and laws that discriminate on basis of gender. This conclusion was made because, in the Court of Appeals in Columbia, Kavanaugh adopted certain positions that clearly demonstrated a lot of animosity towards the rights of women in areas such as employee rights and reproductive autonomy. Women do not feel like there will a women-friendly court with the presence of Kavanaugh on the bench. Strategies on how to overcome whatever decisions that are not in their favor could be underway in preparation for the worst. Women today are striving to create a better environment for their daughters, nieces and even granddaughters in the years to come.
Long lasting effect
Kavanaugh is likely to be on the bench for a long time. His predecessors such as Justice Thomas served for more than twenty-six years while Justice Breyer served for more than twenty-four years. This is an indication that Kavanaugh who is in his early 50s is likely to serve for more than twenty years as well (Raftery and Brownstone, 2018). His ideologies and opinions will affect the country for more than two decades if he is office all through. This indicates how the nation should be concerned not only for themselves but for the generations that will grow with these changes. An entire generation will be founded on different ideologies compared to those that individuals have fought for over the years.
Conclusion
The endorsement of Mr. Kavanaugh will forever be remembered. Kavanaugh is known for his experience and the previous decisions he has taken part. There is a lot that is expected from him and everyone is watching and waiting to see if he will stand by his previous comments regarding various issues such as abortion.
Choices have consequences and so does this one. His confirmation has individuals on the edges of their seats waiting with bated breaths for the decisions he will make. Concerns have been aired and anxieties have been discussed. Everyone is going to be affected whether directly or indirectly. The future of the United States of America is likely to be reshaped from the social, economic and political pillars.
Affected individuals are likely to hit the streets in protests if the rights their founders have fought for are violated. These individuals include civil rights humanitarians, women fighting for their rights, the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community, employees and the poor. Many are assured it is not the Kavanaugh Effect but rather the KavanaughsRevenge. It is referred to this way because there is a probability of many individuals being affected.
The Republicans and the Democrats are on the list of groups of people to be affected. They are divided on his confirmation especially along gender lines. Since the majority party has changed to a conservative majority in the Supreme Court, this could end the dream of the Democrats in taking the Senate and the House of Representatives. This will ultimately affect even the race to the White House come the next Presidential elections. The gravity of his election and confirmation is yet to be felt and all that is left to do is wait.
References
Bennette, B., (2018). Supreme Court: How Brett Kavanaugh Could Change the Supreme Court—and America. Time. Retrieved from http://time.com
Raftery, I., and Brownstone, S., (2018). 9 law experts on what Brett Kavanaugh means for the future of America. KUOW. Retrieved from https://www.kuow.org
Rozzo, N., (2018). The Brett Kavanaugh Effect. Edelman. Financial Services Sector, Washington D.C. Retrieved from https://www.edelman.com
Severino, C., (2018). Law and the Courts: The Kavanaugh Effect. National Review. Retrieved from https://www.nationalreview.com
Stober, E., (2018). The ‘Brett Bounce’: How Kavanaugh’s confirmation could affect the U.S. midterm elections. Global News . Retrieved from https://globalnews.ca/
