A Realist Evaluation of the Inter-Korean Summit

A realist Evaluation of the Inter-Korean Summit 

Introduction

North Korea has finally made it! When the North Koreans sought to have a sit-down with the South Koreans, the latter fell over themselves to make the Summit happen in March 2018. Soon after, North Korea made overtures to have a sit-down with Americans and soon after, the US president himself started having premonitions about a future Nobel Peace Prize. Suddenly, the man erstwhile referred to as Little Rocket Man, became a very honorable man (Johnson, 2018). Further, although there is so much local and international issues on the White House in-tray, almost everyone seems to be focused on meeting the Koreans sometime in mid-June. How exactly did a country so poor it cannot feed its citizens and with a despotic government that is reprehensible become the best suitor in recent history. The simple question has two primary answers, the first being China and the second being nuclear weapons. From a realist perspective, the only reason why North Korea was able to bring the South to a Summit with so much ease was because it has nuclear weapons. 

The only reason why the USA is sending its president and not an undersecretary accompanied by a few US Senators to meet Chairman Kim is because of nuclear weapons. However, the only reason why North Korea has any nuclear weapons let alone a hydrogen bomb is because China wanted them to. China not only has near-absolute control over North Korea but is also using North Korea as a geopolitical pawn in its larger scheme of becoming the leading if not the only global superpower (Macfarlane, 2017). This research paper evaluates available evidence and opinion that the inter-Korean Summit and the impending summit between Korea and the Americas has all been orchestrated by China with a view to gaining geopolitical advantage. 

Background Information for the Argument

Taking a realist point of view, North Korea would have ceased to exist as a nation, let alone as a powerful military force decades ago, had it not been supported by China. The history of North Korea only dates back to the end of the Second World War when the USA and Russia jointly took the Korean Peninsula from the Japanese Empire. By the end of the war, the West and Russia were already having stiff ideological differences based on capitalism and communism respectively (Carson, 2016). Due to the differences, the two superpowers elected to divide Korea temporarily instead of managing it together. The division would lead to the North developing a communist ideology while the South developing a capitalist ideology. Supported by Russia, the North attacked the South and almost vanquished it had the US not stepped in to protect the South. The conflict resulted in the Korea War mainly pitting North Korean soldiers with Russian weapons against Americans ostensibly fighting under the banner of the UN (Carson, 2016). The Korean War is fundamental to the instant research paper as it is during its pendency that China got involved in North Korean affairs. In the Korean War, almost every nation was fighting under a false flag. The war was between North and South Korea when in reality, Korea was one entity, only divided by the whims of Russia and the US. Secondly, the US and Russia never actively engaged in the war as they both used proxies. 

The Chinese military, however, actively fought in the war, under their own flag and against the US forces, commonly referred to as UN forces. It is because of the Chinese military that the North Korean capital never fell during the Korean War (Carson, 2016). It is because of China that instead of the US defeating North Korea, an armistice was signed which remains in place to date. Finally, China has remained an ardent supporter of the North Korean regime, and in some cases, the only supporter due to UN and American sanctions. North Korea would either have fallen as a country or undergone a revolution had it not been for Chinese support, more often than not even when such support is contrary to UN sanctions. It is for the same reason that China supported North Korea during the Korean War that China has supported the impoverished nation to develop nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) (Mosher, 2017). It is also for the very same reason that the US and South Korea have no choice but cooperate with North Korea for as long as North Korea pretends to want to cooperate with them. From the above, North Korea is a big puppet being controlled by the Chinese government. 

Why North Korea is Willing to Cooperate with the South and the USA

Taking an open-minded realist approach to the instant subject, there is no viable reason for North Korea to cooperate with either the USA or South Korea, unless a very powerful party is forcing North Korea to do so. Several American and South Korean commentators would want the world to believe that North Korea is cooperating because of the tough US stance spearheaded by President Trump. Indeed, the South Korean president is on record as having said that President Trump deserves a Nobel Price for bringing Kim to the negotiating table. Realistically, the Americans and South Koreans are only selling the idea that Chairman Kim has finally been broken by sanctions. The general idea behind this propaganda is because, either they are confused by Kim’s sudden cooperation or they are unwilling to accept the real reason. Three fundamental events that took place in 2017 can shed a light on why the North Koreans are cooperating with the USA. The first is the almost hilarious impeachment of pro-US South Korean President Park Geun-Hye on allegation of corruption, eventually leading to her conviction and incarceration. President Park was soon after replaced by a very liberal President Moon Jae-in who promises to relentlessly pursue peace with North Korea. The second event was the rapid transformation of Chairman Kim from being a regional clown into being one of the most powerful men in the world. For years, Chairman Kim’s threat against South Korea and the west were almost universally met with derision. In the last few years, however, the world begun to realize that Kim’s threats were no longer empty. Not only did North Korea develop the ability to build a miniaturized warhead but also the capability to transport the warhead for thousands of miles. According to Mizokami et al. (2017), the city of Seoul and its ten million inhabitants have always been under the mercy of North Korean artillery. The only thing protecting Seoul was the fear of retaliation from global powers such as the USA. With the nuclear weapons ensuring that such retaliation is not possible, Chairman Kim suddenly became one of the most powerful men in the world. The third and final event was the transformation of China, one of the most powerful nations in the world into a near monarchy when President Xi Jinping was indirectly declared life president by eliminating presidential term limits (Zhang, 2018). 

When these three events are looked at contemporaneously from a realistic perspective, they present a very powerful Chairman Kim who has absolutely no reason to cooperate, suddenly accepting to cooperate. Contemporaneously, the decision by Kim to cooperate coincides with the election of a South Korean president who is not only receptive but also eager to accept Kim’s cooperation. The president is not only eager to cooperate with the North but also eager to ensure that North Korea and the US come to an agreement. Finally, the North-South cooperation comes at a time when a new political superman has risen like a colossus over East Asia in the name and style of a Chinese life president. To solidify this opinion, are two important occurrences. For a start, according to Myers and Perlez (2018), prior to the first Korean Summit, Chairman Kim travelled to China to meet with President Xi, a meeting that almost seemed to have an element of secrecy. Soon after the first summit, the two leaders met again inside China. The regular physical meetings between the two leaders reflect that they are working on something important enough not to be canvassed over even the most secure communication devices. Secondly, after the first Summit, Chairman Kim’s government undertook a circumspect mission to rock the boat. According to Sang-hun (2018), a North Korean official with close ties to Chairman Kim went on a verbal rampage against the US and South Korea that to all commentators would have guaranteed that any more cooperation between the three nations was doomed. Chairman Kim’s government contemporaneously announced that the set second Korean Summit would not take place. President Trump responded by cancelling the impending US-North Korean Summit set for 12th June 2018 and also issuing wild threats against North Korea. Soon after, President Moon fell all over himself, including meeting with Chairman Kim inside North Korea, trying to salvage the June 12th Summit. To the surprise of almost all commentators, the June 12th Summit is not only back on course without any reports of formal apologies from North Korea but also an extreme eagerness is being reported in the part of the US president. The secondary event outlined above confirms that North Korea is both cooperating from a position of strength and being met half-way by the South Koreans and Americans who can even be accused of pampering Chairman Kim. 

Why the Explanation Above Supersedes All Others

Several arguments have been presented by different commentators on why Chairman Kim’s regime is cooperating, most of which carry some weight but are subordinate to the argument above. Among the most propagated arguments is that the main reason for the cooperation is the tough stance taken by the US president against North Korea that has finally paid off. The instant argument carries some weight since President Trump has, since his assumption of office taken a tough and threatening stance against the Kim’s regime. Not only has president Trump ensured tighter sanctions but also issued threats of an impending nuclear Armageddon against North Korea. Among the main propagators of the argument that Kim’s cooperation is a sign of Trump’s foreign policy approach is President Trump himself and his supporters and also President Moon. With due respect to the commentators, the tough stance explanation is perhaps the weakest of all explanations. For a start, Chairman Kim is a third generation North Korean ruler, having inherited the throne from his father and his grandfather before him. The three Kims have been able to hold on to power in spite of major sanction and to some extent because of the major sanctions. Realistically, had North Korea been friendly with the South, the Kims would not have held on to the throne for as long as they did. Further, China is on record as having consistently broken UN and US sanctions by coming to the aid of North Korea through both trade and aid. US sanctions against North Korea could only work if President Trump could take a tough stance against China. Available evidence, however, shows that President Trump has been protractedly wishy-washy about sanctions against powerful nations. According to Pandey (2018), in 2018 alone, President Trump has walked back on sanctions against both China and Russia. The Chinese example is worthy of notice due to its eerie similarity with the North Korean situation. The US government issued sanctions against Chinese Giant GTE for breaching sanctions against Iran. Soon after, President Trump himself intervened for and on behalf of GTE to an extent that he sounded more as a lobbyist for Chinese interests within the US government, through his Tweeter account. Based on the above, China cannot be afraid of US sanctions and by extension, neither can North Korea. 

Another argument raised is that Chairman Kim is afraid of his regime collapsing due to economic problems and is thus reaching out to South Korea and the USA so as to save North Korea’s economy and by extension his regime. The instant argument also holds some water since the North Korean economy has been tittering, and on the verge of collapse for a very long time. The UN and the US sanctions have affected the North Korean economy extensively with China remaining the poor nation’s only economic partner. Further, poverty is the norm, rather than the exception in North Korea with unconfirmed reports indicating that starvation is a common problem. However, the instant argument, when looked at realistically is still subordinate to the argument regarding the cooperation being orchestrated by China. First, the argument is predicated on the argument that the survival of the Kim regime is dependent on a good economy. There is a reason why almost all despots around the world lead impoverished nations while most of the developed nations have a semblance of democracy. People who are too worried about the source of their next meals might not be too keen on social justice and this may be the reason why Kim spends billions of dollars on nuclear weapons and not food. Further, if Chairman Kim was becoming desperate, his reaction would not be to cooperate with the South and America as this would be the longer route. The shorter route would be to act so belligerently against South Korea that the entire world will take notice and seek for peace. Kim would then make a simple deal for peace in exchange for food, a deal that a majority of global powers and the UN would support. It would not be realistic to imagine that such a complex and time consuming process of seeking to agree on denuclearization then undertake the actual denuclearization can be a result of desperation. The process can take several years, even a decade and a desperate regime would not have such an amount of time. Finally, a united Korea would doom the Kim family’s hold on North Korea thus, it would be a reasonable path for Kim to hold on to power. 

Expectations for East Asian Relations in the Future

After protracted negotiations lasting for years, an uneasy peace will be established and a peace treaty signed between the two Koreas, to the detriment of America and the benefit of China. Based on the analysis above, both the Americans and the South Koreans are walking into a trap in Singapore. Chairman Kim has all the latitude to do anything he wants and still leave Singapore with is head held high and global goodwill on his side. Most importantly, Kim can even chose not to attend the Summit and still be able to justify the move geopolitically. President Trump’s penchant for shooting himself in the foot will give his opponent a lot of goodwill in Singapore. For example, the very last meeting that Trump attended before heading to Singapore ended in disarray after Trump agreed to a join G7 statement then Twitted against it soon after (BBC, 2018). Similarly, the US government soon went back on a denuclearization deal with Iran, even after several global powers guaranteed that deal. The above gives Kim a strong hand in the discussions between the Koreas, more so in the subsequent meetings to be held later. In my opinion, President Moon will eventually realize that his only hope for peace lies in dissociating himself with the Americans. Negotiations about denuclearization will then be accompanied with negotiation about American forces leaving the Korean Peninsula which is exactly what the Chinese want. A peace treaty will then be arrived at perhaps in the long run, the unification of the Koreas into one nation will be attained. The sacrificial lamb for the unification will be the United States and its interest in the Koreas and also in the general East Asia region. Not only will American forces be removed from the Korean Peninsula but also China will become for the entire region, what it now is, in North Korea, the dominant power. If all goes as it is currently, the current cooperation by the North Korean government at the instance of China will result in China indirectly eliminating America and the Western powers out of East Asia beginning with South Korea. Other American allies in the region such as Taiwan will soon follow suit empowering the Chinese position in the region. Dominating East Asia fall on the wider geopolitical plot by China to dominate the entire world making it the only superpower. 

Conclusion

Calamity beckons of the USA and her ally South Korea, premised on the inordinate cooperation by North Korea at the instigation of China. 2018 is the most improbable year for North Korea to cooperate with the US and South Korea for any noble reason. For start, North Korea is more powerful than it has ever been in its relatively short history. The despotic regime not only has its entire populace in its stranglehold but also has the entire world mesmerized by its nuclear weapons and ICBMs that are capable of delivering the weapon for thousands of miles. It is possible that the weapons are not as capable as Chairman Kim alleges but the world would never be foolhardy enough to call his bluff. At the same time when Kim is so strong, his de facto patron, Chinese president Xi now qualifies for the title of Chinese strongman as he now has the constitutional capability to rule for life. 

Further, Kim’s main foe, the South Korean presidency has conveniently been occupied by a pacifist, President Moon, who came to power after a very controversial impeachment. When everything seems to be working so well for Chairman Kim, he suddenly folds and goes out of his way to cooperate with South Korea and the USA. The only logical explanation for the change of heart by Kim is if there is an orchestrating arm controlling the Korean Peninsula. Realistically reasoning, there exists a power in East Asia that has both the motive and capacity to undertake such an orchestration, China (Macfarlane, 2017). The motive lies in seeking to eliminate the military and economic influence of the USA in the Korean Peninsula and eventually the whole of East Asia. The capacity includes having near absolute control over the North Korean regime and also having the financial muscle and capability of orchestrating events such as the impeachment of an American leaning South Korean president. In the instant Chess game that it the Korean Summits, China has all the aces. Unless the US employs more geopolitical tact than it has exhibited under the Trump presidency, the outcomes of the Summits will be a united Korean Peninsula under the patronage of China. 

References

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Carson, A. (2016). Facing off and saving face: covert intervention and escalation management in the Korean War.  International Organization ,  70 (1), 103-131 

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