Artificial intelligence and automation will significantly influence the prospective earning ability of varied groupings in 10 to 15 years. Many jobs will disappear, but at the same time, many others will arise. Significant job changes will occur as well. Also, future posts will require new skills and more advanced education requirements. One of the meaningful ways through which automation and AI will influence the earning power of diverse economic groups is through job growth and decline.
Rapidly growing developing countries will see job growth across all occupations leading to demand on all types of labor. However, automation will likely have adverse implications on advanced economies. This undesirable condition will arise because of the wage structure. Companies generally do not invest in automation technologies until it is cheaper to acquire such technology and employ them than it is to pay workers (Manyinka et al., 2017). In advanced economies, the wage bill is way higher than in developing countries, and therefore companies are likely to opt for automation. However, various catalysts associated with automation will ensure that there is growth in other occupations across all economies.
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Various catalysts will increase the demand for labor. Aging populations will mean that the need for caregivers and healthcare workers such as doctors and eldercare workers will expand. Also, various professionals, such as managers will be in demand as automation technologies, are severely limited in certain areas (Manyinka et al., 2017). Information technology-related professionals, account managers, scientists, and engineers are some of the occupations that will witness a rise. Within the next 15 years, humans will still have a comparative edge when it comes to applying expertise even in fields primarily dominated by automation. Another area that will see growth is the creative sector. The emotional and creative aspects of automation are limited, and humans still have the upper hand. Therefore artists, painters, and entertainers will be in demand. Jobs such as CEOs, Legislators, and Psychiatrists will be safe as they are not easily automatable. However, some sectors will experience job losses.
Occupations that involve activities that can be easily automated will experience job decline. These activities include physical activities performed in straightforward environments. Consequently, assembly line work demand is likely to fall considerably. Other occupations that are likely to be adversely affected include data processing, data collection, office support staff, and financial processing jobs (Manyinka et al., 2017). These jobs are adequately predictable and therefore, very easy and cost-effective to fully automate. The tasks will systematically disappear, especially when automation technology advances to a stage where it is cheaper than the use of human labor. Apart from job loss and creation, automation is also likely to create a significant shift in occupations.
Automation is likely to cause a shift in what employees do for a variety of reasons. The most significant reason is that automation will take away a big portion of what has typically been done by humans’ prompting a change in the job detail (David, 2015). A good number of individuals will have to do a complete shift from the shrinking occupational categories to the growing divisions. This shift will be significant and will involve considerable adjustments. The reality of the situation is that individuals would have to learn to do entirely new things. Some formal training will be necessary to acquire new skills and be suitable for a new occupation. This situation will present a significant challenge. Creating the structures and providing resources required for middle-aged individuals to go back to school would not be simple (Brynjolfsson et al., 2018). The practical path would be to help such individuals get essential skills for a new occupation. And begin a career in a new direction that will have a dire socio-economic impact on the individuals.
Automation will result in considerable inequality among the various classes. As seen from the above discussion, most jobs created in advanced states would have moved to the pay bracket of those enjoying the substantial portion of the wage distribution now. Middle-income occupations will experience the worst declines in demand. Some low-wage occupations, including nurses and teachers, will see a small increase in demand.
References
Brynjolfsson, E., Mitchell, T., & Rock, D. (2018, May). What can machines learn, and what does it mean for occupations and the economy?. In AEA Papers and Proceedings (Vol. 108, pp. 43-47).
David, H. J. J. O. E. P. (2015). Why are there still so many jobs? The history and future of workplace automation. Journal of economic perspectives , 29 (3), 3-30.
Manyika, J., Lund, S., Chui, M., Bughin, J., Woetzel, J., Batra, P., ... & Sanghvi, S. (2017). Jobs lost, jobs gained: What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages. McKinsey Global Institute December.
